Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:07 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
This weekend is but one game. Let's check back in 4 or 5 please, especially after he faces some decent defenses. That's true Mike but if he does play well that will be six games in a row when he's gotten starter's action for at least one half or a full game in which he's put up strong fantasy production. I want to see a larger sample size too, but there's no denying that every time Tebow has gotten meaningful action so far he's been a strong fantasy producer. [/QUOTE]Agreed. But that small sampling size is the all-important factor. Over a course of half a season, he should see enough good and bad defenses to draw some conclusions.

But by all means everyone, carry on with the gushing! Enjoy while you can.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:09 am

His fantasy play deserves the gushing Mike. Say what you want about Tebow - and once again I'll say that I'm not sold on him either - but there's no denying what he's done from a fantasy perspective.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 10:12 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
And you have some magic by which you can retroactively gain those points? Haha. All that matters is from here forward, not the 3 out of 4 games he lit up bad defenses in the past (esp. when 2 of those were last year, under a different coach, with Brandon Lloyd, and on and on and on). The Chargers are the fifth-ranked defense in the NFL and he lit them up from a fantasy perspective in the half he played against them this season.

I can appreciate people not believing in Tebow going forward given his massive flaws as a quarterback. What I don't get, though, are those who don't give him credit from a fantasy perspective for what he's done when he's gotten starter's minutes. The guy has gotten it done every single time. Question what he may do going forward but what he's done to date has been damn impressive from a fantasy perspective.

[ October 26, 2011, 04:12 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:04 am

I'd hardly call half a game with 4/10,79,1 passing and 6,38,1 rushing "lighting up". Hell, that'd barely break 150 yards passing over a whole game! Yes, it was 19.8 fantasy points, but do we really think he's going to continue to score 2-3 TDs EVERY week? (I do not) We all know that TDs are the most volatile part of the game and we've often heard about warnings not to count on players who rely so much on rushing TDs. I just don't see Denver being down near the goal line nearly enough for him to continue that pace, IMO.

I questioned WHO he's done it against, not that he's performed well. And yes, I do definitely think the past ain't the future. We shall see.

[ October 26, 2011, 05:12 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:43 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I'd hardly call half a game with 4/10,79,1 passing and 6,38,1 rushing "lighting up". Hell, that'd barely break 150 yards passing over a whole game! Yes, it was 19.8 fantasy points, but do we really think he's going to continue to score 2-3 TDs EVERY week? (I do not) We all know that TDs are the most volatile part of the game and we've often heard about warnings not to count on players who rely so much on rushing TDs. I just don't see Denver being down near the goal line nearly enough for him to continue that pace, IMO.

I questioned WHO he's done it against, not that he's performed well. And yes, I do definitely think the past ain't the future. We shall see. I agree with this.

And yes, during this extremely small sample size there has been fantasy production during his brief appearances. But the more he plays, the more the upcoming opposing defenses can study the few strengths he has. Once these professional defenses game-plan to shut down his narrow skill set, then Tebow won't be able to compensate because he lacks skills in other areas. As Sandman says, he needs at least 2-3 TD's each week to stay relevant and I don't see that happening.

Herein lies the big difference between Cam Newton and Tebow. If defenses shut down Newton in the run game, he can kill them with the pass because he's proven himself to be gifted in that area. Nobody would be surprised to see Newton throw for 400+ yards in a game. If defenses shut down the pass, Newton is every bit as dangerous on the ground as Tebow. This double threat makes Newton a much more professional NFL Quarterback.

I see Newton being around the NFL for a long time. Tebow...not so much.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Wed Oct 26, 2011 12:02 pm

One also needs to consider Tebow's weapons going forward. Denver now lacks a true #1 option at receiver. Decker and Thomas just aren't polished enough to be able to help their QB overcome his deficiencies in the pass game. They also are lacking a stud TE that would act as a tremendously helpful security valve.

Throw in the fact that McGahee will be missing some time and their isn't much there to scare opposing defenses.

And as Shrink states above, defenses will be preparing for Tebow more so than in the past and will be keying in on exploiting his more than obvious weaknesses.

I will admit that I was wrong on Cam Newton, as I never saw him being a force this early in his career. I could also be wrong with Tebow but Cam just looks so much more comfortable with all aspects of the QB position.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:01 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I'd hardly call half a game with 4/10,79,1 passing and 6,38,1 rushing "lighting up". Mike, I've been talking about from a fantasy perspective. In one half of play against the Chargers, Tebow put up 19.75 points in the NFFC. By means of comparison, Aaron Rodgers (the No. 1-ranked QB in the NFFC) averages 36.4 points per game. So yes, I believe putting up more than half of that number in one half of work is lighting it up from a fantasy perspective.

And as some of us have been saying, that's what Tebow has done every time he's gotten on the field for meaningful action. So while it's true that the past isn't the future, so far the present and the past have matched up equally. That bodes well for future production.

[ October 27, 2011, 08:03 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 27, 2011 2:06 am

I think what people can't wrap their heads around is that you have to throw all logic out the window when it comes to analyzing Tebow - especially from a fantasy perspective. That's difficult to do, especially when it comes to the quarterback position. But that's the deal with Tebow. As I've said all along, he has massive shortcomings as a quarterback but somehow he finds a way to produce elite fantasy numbers and his team has been respectable as well in his four starts (2-2 record). I have no idea how he's doing it but the bottom line is that to this point he has done it. That counts for something, or at least it should.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:03 am

My final thoughts on this polarizing, but circular, debate: let's see him put up 19-20 points in a half vs some good teams. I doubt he'll consistently reach that mark for whole GAMES going forward.

Agree to disagree, but the jury will weigh in over the next month.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Oct 27, 2011 3:11 am

There's no question that Tebow has to prove himself over the test of time. The point being made is that every time he's been given starter's time he's put up strong fantasy production. That's a fact. Considering his massive weaknesses as a QB, it's also extremely impressive. Whether he can keep that going remains to be seen. But if the best predictor of future production is past production (to coin a phrase), Tebow's fantasy potential is clearly very high.