Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

liquidhippo · Post by **liquidhippo** » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:34 pm

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by King of Queens:
quote:Originally posted by Liquid Hippo:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
The comparison to Peyton Manning is absurd.If you would be so kind, could you post specifically the comparison you speak of(or simply point me to it, I searched this thread and could not find any Peyton/Tebow comparison) and what you found so absurd about it? Did the poster state that Tebow was better than Peyton Manning? That they were on equal footing? Did they post or state something that was factually incorrect?

thanks [/QUOTE]Fishing trip?

http://nffcboards.stats.com/cgi-bin/ult ... 166#000002 [/QUOTE]From Tim Tebow vs.Peyton Manning :
Originally posted by Liquid Hippo:
Through the first four starts of their careers:

Tim Tebow - 812 Passing Yards, 6 TD's, 3 INT's, 264 Rushing Yards, 3 Rushing TD's, 2 Wins, 2 Losses
Peyton Manning - 992 Passing Yards, 3 TD's, 11 INT's, 33 Rushing Yards, 0 Rushing TD's, 0 Wins, 4 Losses Classic case of an apples to oranges comparison, in my hopefully-not-coming-across-too-arrogant opinion.

First of all, regarding the wins/losses. IMO, this is probably where most of the excitement for Tebow comes from. He IS exciting to watch and leading his team to victories when behind is very good for his NFL team. But for fantasy purposes, it doesn't really matter WHEN in the game he scores or IF his team wins or loses. But I suspect that the emotional draw many feel for him comes from this "gamer" trait more than his fantasy potential going forward.

Rather than just combining those first 4 games for each player, let's take a look at the detailed game logs:

Manning's first 4 starts: Passing Rushing
G# Date Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Att Yds TD
1 9/6/1998 MIA L 15-24 21 37 56.80% 302 1 3 0 0 0
2 9/13/1998 NE L 6-29 21 33 63.60% 188 1 3 0 0 0
3 9/20/1998 NYJ L 6-44 20 44 45.50% 193 0 2 3 26 0
4 9/27/1998 NO L 13-19 19 32 59.40% 309 1 3 1 7 0

Tebow's first 4 starts: Passing Rushing
G# Date Opp Result Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Att Yds TD
14 12/19/2010 OAK L 23-39 8 16 50.00% 138 1 0 8 78 1
15 12/26/2010 HOU W 24-23 16 29 55.20% 308 1 1 10 27 1
16 1/2/2011 SD L 28-33 16 36 44.40% 205 2 2 13 94 1
6 10/23/2011 MIA W 18-15 13 27 48.10% 161 2 0 8 65 0

Manning's first 4 starts were actually the first 4 games of his ROOKIE season. He didn't get to watch the first 13 games from the sideline or attend an extra 3+ months of practices first or watch 3+ months of game film from that season, etc., like Tebow did (who didn't start until game 14 last year).

How about completion percentage those first 4 games? Manning: 55.5%. Tebow: 49.1%.

Yes, Manning threw a lot more picks. But WHY? Coupled with a lot less practice experience, how about the strength of defenses faced in those games?

Manning
Game 1: MIA, a 10-6 team that year, who allowed 265 points (16.6 PPG), 1st in the NFL. Their league rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints was 6th, 3rd and 1st, respectively. Throwing for over 300 yards vs. a defense this good in his first NFL start is pretty remarkable, even with the 3 picks.
Game 2: NE, 9-7, who was a respectable if not stellar defense, that allowed 329 points (20.6 PPG), 14th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 25th, 24th and 2nd.
Game 3: NYJ, 12-4, allowed 266 points (16.6 PPG), 2nd. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 9th, 2nd and 4th.
Game 4: NO, 6-10, allowed 359 points (22.4 PPG), 21st. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 30th, 21st and 4th.
*** These teams were the league leaders in interceptions in 1998. So it shouldn't be hard to understand why Manning threw 11 picks against them in the first 4 starts of his rookie season.

Tebow
2010
Game 14: OAK, eventually an 8-8 team, allowed 371 points (23.2 PPG), 20th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 2nd, 28th, 25th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 29th, 20th.
Game 15: HOU, eventually a 6-10 team, allowed 427 points (26.7 PPG), 29th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 32nd, 31st, 23rd. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 13th, 26th.
Game 16: SD, eventually a 9-7 team, allowed 322 points (20.1 PPG), 10th. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 1st, 5th, 14th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 4th, 20th. [But as I already pointed out earlier in this thread, SD's star LB, Stephen Cooper (team-leading 297 tackles from 2007-10), was placed on I/R after 14 games last year. And in addition to Tebow running well vs. the Chargers in week 17, in week 16 (also without Cooper), SD allowed the Bengals duo RBs of Benson/Scott to run for 102 yds and 1 TD. But in the prior two games to that, SF and KC were shut down running, for just 55 and 49 yards, respectively. IOW, this was a very good run D that Tebow got to face without their best tackler.]
2011
Game 6: MIA, an 0-6 team, allowed 146 points (24.3 PPG), 22nd. League rank vs. passing yards, TDs and Ints: 21st, 29th, 30th. League rank vs. rushing yards, TDs: 20th, 7th.
*** Except for San Diego (which IMO still has an * due to Cooper missing), these defenses were among the worst in the league.

Yes, Tebow is a dynamic rusher and Manning is a statue. But look at how weak the run defenses Tebow has faced were. Granted, he'll get to face a few weak run defenses the rest of this year too. But he'll also face several mid-range and a few very good run Ds. This is why I believe he won't be able to sustain his past rushing pace. And without those rushing stats, I think it's clear that he won't be a top-10 fantasy QB based on his passing.

Now please tell me again how arrogant I am because I try to backup my opinions with data and remind me again that I just hate him because of his religious beliefs (extra credit if you can find a single mention of that in the text above ) or that I want to see him fail because he's such a nice guy (and I'm probably jealous or some other such nonsense). :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]Ok, so it turns out you were referring to my post. It sounds like you are arguing against something I never stated nor implied.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Sun Oct 30, 2011 5:38 pm

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Get your fantasy points from Tebow while you can. Over the remainder the season he will prove to the Broncos and the rest of the league just why he cant succeed at that position.

The Broncos will choose to go another direction and Tebow will never be relevant in fantasy circles again.

If you only could be an effective QB just because you're a nice guy.... Don't make posts like this that will come back to haunt you

jimchristie · Post by **jimchristie** » Sun Oct 30, 2011 10:51 pm

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Get your fantasy points from Tebow while you can. Over the remainder the season he will prove to the Broncos and the rest of the league just why he cant succeed at that position.

The Broncos will choose to go another direction and Tebow will never be relevant in fantasy circles again.

If you only could be an effective QB just because you're a nice guy.... Don't make posts like this that will come back to haunt you [/QUOTE]Is this because someone might start Tebow again next week?

KenGill · Post by **KenGill** » Sun Oct 30, 2011 11:16 pm

I started Tebow for the past two weeks and have been rewarded with some decent production. The guy has started 5 games total. Let's give the guy some time, before we declare him a bust as an NFL QB. Check out the numbers on the performance of these quarterback's rookie seaons. They all STUNK:

* Terry Bradshaw (6 TD, 24 INT)
* Troy Aikman (9 TD's, 18 INT)
* Vinny Testaverde (13 TD's, 35 INT)

These are two hall of famers, and a third guy who had a real good career.

Point is, let's give Tebow 16 games before he is declared a bust.

particra · Post by **particra** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 4:09 am

Disappointed in the lack of discussion here today.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 4:51 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:
Disappointed in the lack of discussion here today. I actually watched the game unlike most of the haters....

Tebow had no protection.
They traded his top receiver.
For basically nothing.
Put him on a real team that can protect him and wants him to succeed and he’ll be great.
Fox is a neanderthal
They set him up to fail

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 5:04 am

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
Get your fantasy points from Tebow while you can. Over the remainder the season he will prove to the Broncos and the rest of the league just why he cant succeed at that position.

The Broncos will choose to go another direction and Tebow will never be relevant in fantasy circles again.

If you only could be an effective QB just because you're a nice guy.... Don't make posts like this that will come back to haunt you [/QUOTE]I'm sorry, I thought this was a discussion board where people share their opinions.

The facts are that after his last two starts, Tebow has played about 5 minutes of good football. He only managed to put up decent fantasy production yesterday because of his luxury to play in garbage time.

Yes, he's without Brandon Lloyd in the offense but other than that, all other elements are in place from when Orton was behind center. I don't rememeber anyone complaining about how bad the offensive line was when he was in.

My point was that regardless of his intangibles, if he continues to struggle like he has and they don't win games, the organization will be forced to make a change.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:39 am

Funny, all week long while we had to endure the cult's public adoration of him, we never heard any excuses about him not having Brandon Lloyd. Maybe because the undying faith of his followers still believed he'd deliver every week, like he did last week against the "mighty" Dolphins?

Now that he failed (albeit just for one game), it's everyone AROUND him's fault - his coach, his line, his lack of elite WRs??? C'mon! Puhlease!

Interesting irony... he scored almost 20 NFFC points in arguably one of the NFL's worst ever QB performances. Heck, if that were his downside, I'd take that from my QB. But the sad truth is that DET did pull their starters on defense, which allowed him to get a little garbage time. But if the only way he can salvage a fantasy game is to put his team in a 40+ hole first, I sincerely doubt he'll have a job long enough to repeat that feat very often.

mikenj46 · Post by **mikenj46** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:51 am

Ok....so here's the question. I could care less about how good he will or won't be. I'm from NJ and a Packers fan....how the Broncos fair is of little importance.

BUT, I am currently in first place in my OC league and fighting my way towards the top overall, so if 20 points is his downside, he can play for me every week.

I am TERRIFIED however, that Fox will pull him in the 3rd quarter the next time he has a game like this, so I am considering going back to Fitzpatrick.

Next week....Fitzpatrick vs. the Jets or roll Tebow out there one more time? (assuming he still starts)

particra · Post by **particra** » Mon Oct 31, 2011 6:57 am

Originally posted by mikenj46:
Ok....so here's the question. I could care less about how good he will or won't be. I'm from NJ and a Packers fan....how the Broncos fair is of little importance.

BUT, I am currently in first place in my OC league and fighting my way towards the top overall, so if 20 points is his downside, he can play for me every week.

I am TERRIFIED however, that Fox will pull him in the 3rd quarter the next time he has a game like this, so I am considering going back to Fitzpatrick.

Next week....Fitzpatrick vs. the Jets or roll Tebow out there one more time? (assuming he still starts) I think his leash is very short. I'd probably give him another week, but yeah, tough call.