Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:47 am

One thing about Tebow not enough people are talking about is the fact he doesn't turn the ball over. He isn't an accurate passer but it's not like he's throwing the ball all over the field blindly. Defenses have yet to rattle him and force him into silly mistakes. That's rather impressive, especially considering how the Jets made it clear they wanted to rattle him last night.

particra · Post by **particra** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 2:48 am

It's hard not to like him. He's obviously a tremendous runner out of the QB position. He also obviously cannot throw the ball at all.

The interesting thing is it almost doesn't matter how good or bad the defense is that he's playing against. He still will be able to run effectively and still won't be able to pass. What's more important is how good the offense of the other team is. Tebow isn't going to lead the team to 27+ offensive points running the option. Against even decent offensive teams, Denver is going to struggle.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 4:44 am

Good points about the offenses Tebow has faced Hells. Sorry gambler, but I have to disagree on Tebow's passing ineptitude having anything to do with not having a receiver who can go over the middle. Have you SEEN how many times in the last 5 games he's overthrown a wide-open Decker streaking down the middle of the field???

Here's my take:

Is he fun to watch? Yes! Do I root for him to succeed as an NFL player (i.e. win games)? Yes. Is he a legit starting NFFC QB? Yes (barely). And I don't think the major opposition against him has denied that. Rather, it's the irrationally exuberant claims that he's be a top-10 QB or that there are only a small handful of QBs (5?) worth starting over him that fuel the negative reaction.

In NFFC playoff and payout determination, total points is more important than H2H record. So it seems fair to consider comparisons by Average PPG. However, H2H can't be ignored either, as that is still a valid way to make the playoffs or cash. Therefore, Median PPG is important too, as that indicates what you can expect from a player in any given week.

Keep in mind that we’re still dealing with a very small sampling size of games for him (5 this season). So by season’s end, this data could be drastically different, largely based on what he does more of from here on - lays stinkers (less than 20 PPG) or goes off (25+). But so far, Tebow is barely a consideration as a starter: 11th in Average PPG and 15th in Median PPG.
(I can post the data charts for this when I get home tonight if anyone’s interested.)

By comparison:
• Rodgers, Newton, Brady, Manning, Roethlisberger and Stafford have all performed better and against tougher defenses.
• Brees, Rivers, Romo and Ryan have also performed better, albeit against weaker defenses.
On top of that, almost all of these other QBs have longstanding histories of success that increase most people’s confidence in starting them each week.

IMO, the fact that his very charismatic and humble post-game interview last night was even brought up on a fantasy football message board highlights the reason for the polarized divide on this guy... People WANT to like him! They want him on their teams so they can chat with their buddies at the water cooler about how great he was each week and that they have a piece of him. Hey, I like him too - as a person, a role model, and as an entertainer. But we're playing FANTASY football here. What the heck does his interview have to do with fantasy football? The line between objective fantasy football evaluation and personal preference for a likeable guy continues to be crossed in this debate (and yes, that includes his faith, which is also completely irrelevant in fantasy football).

Last but not least, he's really only faced ONE decent OFFENSE in his 5 starts too (DET); the rest have been the impotent MIA, OAK, KC and NYJ. And that's the reason his team has kept the scores close and even BEEN in a position to allow his late-game heroics to occur. But are you really comfortable starting a QB who is currently outside the top-10 and who almost every game relies on last-minute heroics to salvage respectable fantasy numbers, even against bad teams? Seriously? Do you really think he'll just "save the day" (and your fantasy week) like that every single game he plays? If not, good luck with his 10-15 PPG when he comes back down to earth.

Consider yourselves warned.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:19 am

Mike, you keep saying that Tebow's luck is going to run out. It very well might. While you keep saying that, though, he keeps winning and continues to deliver production for his fantasy owners. You wanted to give him a month and his team has succeeded during that time. You insisted he had to face a good defense well he did that last night and came out the victor. At some point, you might want to acknowledge that fact that for all his flaws, his team continues to win with him and his fantasy owners certainly aren't being hurt by starting him. Just something to think about.

[ November 18, 2011, 11:20 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:31 am

Victor shmicter. We don't get points for NFL wins. He is 11th or 15th among QBs in his 5 starts, in average or median PPG. You've said several times that there are only a few QBs you think are better. The numbers - not wins or likeability - suggest otherwise.

P.S.
Can you please delete Frank's pic so we can see the truncated text on the right of p. 18? Thanks.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 5:42 am

Mike, you've insisted Tebow had to do certain things and so far he's done everything you demanded he do while leading the Broncos to wins and being a QB1 in fantasy. You keep setting up more obstacles for him without ever acknowledging the fact he's clearing the ones you set up previously. At some point, one would think you'd at least have to acknowledge the things he's done well because there have been quite a few without a doubt.

Frank, I deleted your photo because it was pushing the page out too wide. Can you find a smaller one? Thanks.

[ November 18, 2011, 11:43 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:01 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
Victor shmicter. We don't get points for NFL wins. He is 11th or 15th among QBs in his 5 starts, in average or median PPG. You've said several times that there are only a few QBs you think are better. The numbers - not wins or likeability - suggest otherwise.

P.S.
Can you please delete Frank's pic so we can see the truncated text on the right of p. 18? Thanks.
mike, you can crank out stats and rehash your spreadhseets till the cows come home, but there ain't nothing you have to measure intangibles.

Broncos dropped 4 passes in the second half alone

He's a winner. He has no weapons around him. He's a rookie QB by all standards. With experience and some weapons with an organization that actually wants him to succeed, besides winning, he can throw up 30+ fantasy weeks any day, and you'll be drafting him in the first round

If I see him on your roster in future seasons, the grief I will give

ps nice week in the prime! congrats

[ November 18, 2011, 12:01 PM: Message edited by: Old School ]

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:01 am

Great points Sandman. I don't consider myself a Tebow hater but most do because of the fact that I feel his style of play is not sustainable over time in this league. There is not denying that the guy is a great leader, hard-worker, and a great person who plays the game hard.

However, the facts are that he has played an incredible weak schedule during this streak and the opposing QB's (other than Stafford) have helped the Broncos cause tremendously by playing horrible in their own right.

I can say with the up most confidence that NFL QB's that continue to go 9/20 for barely over 100 yards while beating mediocre teams will not last. You have to be able to throw the ball. If Tebow could throw with any consistency, Decker would have about 5 more touchdowns and probably 300 more receiving yards. He just can't can't consistently put the bal where it's needed when guys are wide open.

Ride it while you can. Maybe they win the weak AFC West. I just don't think it's good enough in the long run.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 6:24 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Mike, you've insisted Tebow had to do certain things and so far he's done everything you demanded he do while leading the Broncos to wins and being a QB1 in fantasy. You keep setting up more obstacles for him without ever acknowledging the fact he's clearing the ones you set up previously. At some point, one would think you'd at least have to acknowledge the things he's done well because there have been quite a few without a doubt.

. Yep Tom. Some refuse to eat crow. Perhaps they are vegetarians

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Fri Nov 18, 2011 7:28 am

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Mike, you've insisted Tebow had to do certain things and so far he's done everything you demanded he do while leading the Broncos to wins and being a QB1 in fantasy. You keep setting up more obstacles for him without ever acknowledging the fact he's clearing the ones you set up previously. At some point, one would think you'd at least have to acknowledge the things he's done well because there have been quite a few without a doubt.

. Yep Tom. Some refuse to eat crow. Perhaps they are vegetarians [/QUOTE]Yes, I insisted he score "well" vs. good teams. NYJ is marginally still a good DEFENSE, but a horrible offense, so I'm not even sure they still qualify as a "good team"? But even if they do, he scored 19 against them. There are 15 NFFC QBs that average more than that per game. I doubt very many NFFC owners would be happy with 19 PPG regularly from their QB???

Here are pretty much all of my posts in this thread:

Tebow will not finish in the top 10 QBs from week 7 thru 16 (let's please ignore week 17).
Jury still out.

I'm not a Tebow hater by any means. But I sure do think that 4 games spread out over 2 years vs. mostly bad defenses is too small a sampling size to conclude how great Tebow will be. Let's check back in a month or two.

This weekend is but one game. Let's check back in 4 or 5 please, especially after he faces some decent defenses.
Besides, when did "20+" become the yardstick for a QB who is getting gushed over this much? Heck, Colt McCoy's averaging 20+, so is Hasselbeck - but I don't see them being revered as the next coming of Michael Vick. He'll need to average 23+ to enter the top 10. Not holding my breath.
Ok, on THIS one, he is getting close. But in fairness, he's faced ONE good team (DET) in 5 games. Don't you think it's fair to face more than that before drawing conclusions?

Over a course of half a season, he should see enough good and bad defenses to draw some conclusions.

Let's see him put up 19-20 points in a half vs some good teams. I doubt he'll consistently reach that mark for whole GAMES going forward.
So far, I'm wrong on this one - largely due to more last-minute heroics, which I STILL maintain cannot continue.

But let's be honest here - people aren't referring to him just as some nice QB off the wire; he's being predicted to be a top 10 or 5 or whatever from here on.
He is currently 11th and has faced 1 good team of 5. DET has the 4th best offense and a good D. OAK, NYJ, MIA and KC are all in the bottom half of offenses (and MIA/KC at 24 and 27 even). He still gets to face the offenses of NE (3), CHI (6), BUF (8), SD (13) and MIN (23)! Most of them have bad pass Ds too and midrange run Ds. But I think it's pretty clear we're seeing that his biggest enemy is a good OFFENSE, not the defense so much?

His downside probably ISN'T 20 PPG.
He's been slightly below that in 3 of 5 games - and that's WITH him and his defense engineering late-game heroic drives. Seriously, do you really expect that to continue occurring EVERY SINGLE GAME? Because when it stops, what's left?

OAK AND SD both suck! When Tebow scores well for fantasy vs good teams - then I'll admit I was wrong on him. Not until then.
The Jets can MAYBE be considered an "average" team at best right now. The only "good" team he's faced is DET and we know how that went. Three of his next 4 games will be a good test.

When he continues to salvage his fantasy day on ONE play per week it seems, I continue to question when his ridiculous good fortune will run out.
Still questioning.

I see a lot of potential for 11-point games.
Still do, as in 55+ of every 60 minutes.
Please stop clouding the issue by reminding me over and over how he just continues to win. This is purely a numbers exercise, as much as some might like me to stuff my spreadsheets wherever. The question isn't "Would I like MY favorite NFL team to have Tebow at QB?" or "Do I enjoy watching him play?" or "Is he a charismatic role model?" or "Do I respect that he is a man of faith?". No, it's quite simply "Is he a legit QB1 - or top 7 the rest of the way (as Tom suggested on Oct. 24th)?". As of right now, he is a marginal starter (11th in average PPG, 15th in median). I still strongly suspect that by the end of this season, he will drop from that status and will have averaged around 18 PPG over his 10 starts, making him around the QB18 or so in the NFFC. (And if BUF sits their starters or gives up in week 17, then that game won't count either, especially seeing there are no NFFC games that week either.)

[ November 18, 2011, 01:33 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]