Tebow has beaten two of the best defenses in the league (Jets and Bears). All last week, we kept hearing about how the Bears would finally be the team that stopped him. Well they didn't - not for the entire game anyway.
Every week, it's a new reason why Tebow won't deliver. So far every week he's delivered since the Lions debacle. Will it end at some point? The odds certainly suggest it will. Unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, chances are you're going to have a stinker of a game at some point. Maybe this will be the week Tebow doesn't get it done. I'm already hearing that this will finally be the week because the Patriots will turn the game into a track meet and Tebow won't be able to keep up. So we'll see what happens.
If people are waiting for Tebow to face a team that possesses both a good defense and a good offense, they are probably going to be waiting awhile. There isn't a single team in the NFL that I would categorize as having both this season. So far Tebow has beaten good defenses and now he's going to face an elite offense. From a fantasy perspective, Tebow has proven to be extremely reliable and consistent. You have been able to start him every week since the Lions loss without having to worry about whether he was going to soil the bed. He hasn't done it a single time.
Again, unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, there isn't another QB who can make the same claim.
Does Tebow have an elite upside? He hasn't shown it yet (although he very well could this week). But that low floor and consistency is huge in my opinion when there is so much volatility on a weekly basis.
We'll see what happens on Sunday. All I know is the people who keep betting against Tebow continue to look more and more foolish as this amazing run continues.
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
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Tom Kessenich
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Tom, he doesn't have to face an elite defense and elite offense. I'd just like to see him play a game where at least one of those wasn't near the bottom. There IS a difference.
Ad for his reliable mediocre production ... Since he's been a starter, he is 11th in average PPG and 13th in median. Yes, he gets those numbers in a consistent mediocre way. If the NFFC placed more emphasis in H2H than points, I might like him better. But in NFFC fantasy football, he's a marginal starter. Add in the unlikelihood that he can score 35-40 in a game, and I like him even less. Give me a guy like Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan, who when they score that much, they help your team win a lot more than a consistent 18-22 every game.
[Insert here Old School's inevitable reply, telling me to stuff my spreadsheets. Yeah, don't let the FACTS get in the way of your emotions. ]
[ December 13, 2011, 12:41 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Ad for his reliable mediocre production ... Since he's been a starter, he is 11th in average PPG and 13th in median. Yes, he gets those numbers in a consistent mediocre way. If the NFFC placed more emphasis in H2H than points, I might like him better. But in NFFC fantasy football, he's a marginal starter. Add in the unlikelihood that he can score 35-40 in a game, and I like him even less. Give me a guy like Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan, who when they score that much, they help your team win a lot more than a consistent 18-22 every game.
[Insert here Old School's inevitable reply, telling me to stuff my spreadsheets. Yeah, don't let the FACTS get in the way of your emotions. ]
[ December 13, 2011, 12:41 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
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Tom Kessenich
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Sandman62:
Tom, he doesn't have to face an elite defense and elite offense. I'd just like to see him play a game where at least one of those wasn't near the bottom. There IS a difference. He has. Chargers are Top 10 both in total defense and total offense.
You know what's interesting about San Diego? They are the ONLY team in the league that ranks in the Top 10 in total defense and total offense. That's the point I was making.
Now if you want to go a little deeper, then Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore do rank in the Top 15 in both offense and defense. However, that's only four teams that could be viewed as at least average in both categories. Four. That's it. That's 12.5% of the league. That's how bad this season has been for finding complete teams.
You want Tebow to face a team that has a respectable or better defense and offense? Fair enough. Of course, there are very few QBs in the entire league who are going to face that combination. And it's primarily restricted to the AFC North. So you're basically demanding that Tebow do something the majority of QBs in the league aren't being asked to do. Are you judging all of them the same way or just Tebow?
It's OK, you don't have to answer that. It was a rhetorical question.
Tom, he doesn't have to face an elite defense and elite offense. I'd just like to see him play a game where at least one of those wasn't near the bottom. There IS a difference. He has. Chargers are Top 10 both in total defense and total offense.
You know what's interesting about San Diego? They are the ONLY team in the league that ranks in the Top 10 in total defense and total offense. That's the point I was making.
Now if you want to go a little deeper, then Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore do rank in the Top 15 in both offense and defense. However, that's only four teams that could be viewed as at least average in both categories. Four. That's it. That's 12.5% of the league. That's how bad this season has been for finding complete teams.
You want Tebow to face a team that has a respectable or better defense and offense? Fair enough. Of course, there are very few QBs in the entire league who are going to face that combination. And it's primarily restricted to the AFC North. So you're basically demanding that Tebow do something the majority of QBs in the league aren't being asked to do. Are you judging all of them the same way or just Tebow?
It's OK, you don't have to answer that. It was a rhetorical question.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Ok, here's another way to look at how blessed he's been by the schedule and the strength of his opponents when he faces them. Sorry Old School if you don't like numbers, but IMO they're a stronger, more objective argument than "You just don't like him because of his faith!" (which is completely false BTW).
Out of the 8 games he's started, only 3 of them were against opponents who didn't have either a bottom-feeding defense (run or pass) or offense:
- MIA's pass D is 20th (in fantasy points allowed to QB) and they're 23rd in scoring - though they were probably lower in both back in week 7, before their recent surge.
- DET's run D is 23rd, but their pass D is 7th; 4th in scoring = the right formula (as long as the DEN D doesn't play out of its mind, see NYJ/SD/CHI below
).
- OAK's run D is 30th and their pass D 23rd; go figure, Tebow ran for 118 yds (and only threw for 124, albeit with 2 TDs).
- KC's run D is 25th; 31st in scoring.
- MIN's pass D is 32nd and they're 20th in scoring.
- On paper, NYJ, SD and CHI all meet the criteria that I believe COULD beat Denver, but neither did because DEN's D stepped up and held them all to 13 points or less. The Jets were without LT and lost Greene in the 1st quarter. Rivers has been in a funk all year, up until the past couple games and only threw for 188 yards. The Bears were without Cutler and Forte; Hanie threw for 115 yards and Barber's mental mistake was the obvious game-breaker.
In his next 3 games, he again has very favorable matchups:
- NE's pass D is 31st. Heck, the Redskins almost beat them this week!
- BUF's pass D is 25th, run D 28th, offense sputtering at 17th (likely only that "high" due to first half of season, when they decided that Fitzpatrick was playing well enough that they "paid the man"). They'll be without FJax, Chandler and DJones (gee, I wonder why their offense got worse?).
- KC's run D is 25th; 31st in scoring.
No commentary on his faith, right?
No thoughts on me personally not liking it when productive QBs come off the waiver wire, right?
So please stop clouding the discussion with this garbage. The facts are right in front of you.
There's NO "hate" going on here, just objective evaluation of a fantasy football QB. Yes, he has a high floor; but he evidently has a low ceiling to go with it, and all of this production has been with the most favorable 8-game opponent streak I've ever seen! Over a full season, without such timely and numerous lucky breaks, will he still be able to barely escape almost every game in the final minutes? I have serious doubts.
And as much as some whine about Elway not enthusiastically getting/being on-board, maybe we ought to remember that he knows a HELLUVA lot more about running a football team than we do! I'm with him; I wouldn't stake MY future on such barely-passable production, that always requires late-game heroics (from him, his defense, his running back), good fortune to play opponents when injured and even the occasional idiotic brain fart (thank you Marion! ). If and when he hits a "normal" streak of opponents next year, what if his team doesn't rally the same way and manage wins? Then they'll just be left an extremely likeable, charismatic role model – but maybe not win so much. And what will NFFC players who draft him be left with – a new floor of about 15 PPG and still a very limited ceiling.
In the end though, I hope this monster thread has fueled enough fire for him that he’s overdrafted next year, increasing the chances of us getting Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan – whose upside I would gladly trade for Tebow’s high floor!
[ December 13, 2011, 02:51 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Out of the 8 games he's started, only 3 of them were against opponents who didn't have either a bottom-feeding defense (run or pass) or offense:
- MIA's pass D is 20th (in fantasy points allowed to QB) and they're 23rd in scoring - though they were probably lower in both back in week 7, before their recent surge.
- DET's run D is 23rd, but their pass D is 7th; 4th in scoring = the right formula (as long as the DEN D doesn't play out of its mind, see NYJ/SD/CHI below
).- OAK's run D is 30th and their pass D 23rd; go figure, Tebow ran for 118 yds (and only threw for 124, albeit with 2 TDs).
- KC's run D is 25th; 31st in scoring.
- MIN's pass D is 32nd and they're 20th in scoring.
- On paper, NYJ, SD and CHI all meet the criteria that I believe COULD beat Denver, but neither did because DEN's D stepped up and held them all to 13 points or less. The Jets were without LT and lost Greene in the 1st quarter. Rivers has been in a funk all year, up until the past couple games and only threw for 188 yards. The Bears were without Cutler and Forte; Hanie threw for 115 yards and Barber's mental mistake was the obvious game-breaker.
In his next 3 games, he again has very favorable matchups:
- NE's pass D is 31st. Heck, the Redskins almost beat them this week!
- BUF's pass D is 25th, run D 28th, offense sputtering at 17th (likely only that "high" due to first half of season, when they decided that Fitzpatrick was playing well enough that they "paid the man"). They'll be without FJax, Chandler and DJones (gee, I wonder why their offense got worse?).
- KC's run D is 25th; 31st in scoring.
No commentary on his faith, right?
No thoughts on me personally not liking it when productive QBs come off the waiver wire, right?
So please stop clouding the discussion with this garbage. The facts are right in front of you.
There's NO "hate" going on here, just objective evaluation of a fantasy football QB. Yes, he has a high floor; but he evidently has a low ceiling to go with it, and all of this production has been with the most favorable 8-game opponent streak I've ever seen! Over a full season, without such timely and numerous lucky breaks, will he still be able to barely escape almost every game in the final minutes? I have serious doubts.
And as much as some whine about Elway not enthusiastically getting/being on-board, maybe we ought to remember that he knows a HELLUVA lot more about running a football team than we do! I'm with him; I wouldn't stake MY future on such barely-passable production, that always requires late-game heroics (from him, his defense, his running back), good fortune to play opponents when injured and even the occasional idiotic brain fart (thank you Marion! ). If and when he hits a "normal" streak of opponents next year, what if his team doesn't rally the same way and manage wins? Then they'll just be left an extremely likeable, charismatic role model – but maybe not win so much. And what will NFFC players who draft him be left with – a new floor of about 15 PPG and still a very limited ceiling.
In the end though, I hope this monster thread has fueled enough fire for him that he’s overdrafted next year, increasing the chances of us getting Romo, Eli, Ben, Rivers or Ryan – whose upside I would gladly trade for Tebow’s high floor!
[ December 13, 2011, 02:51 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
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Tom Kessenich
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Given how this is Elway's first season in management there's absolutely no way anyone can say with certainty how good he is at this job. One thing we do know is the Broncos sure could use a quality wide receiver now that they've become a legitimate playoff threat.
If only they had a guy like that on their roster this season. Hmmm ...
If only they had a guy like that on their roster this season. Hmmm ...
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
Tom, he doesn't have to face an elite defense and elite offense. I'd just like to see him play a game where at least one of those wasn't near the bottom. There IS a difference. He has. Chargers are Top 10 both in total defense and total offense.
You know what's interesting about San Diego? They are the ONLY team in the league that ranks in the Top 10 in total defense and total offense. That's the point I was making.
Now if you want to go a little deeper, then Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore do rank in the Top 15 in both offense and defense. However, that's only four teams that could be viewed as at least average in both categories. Four. That's it. That's 12.5% of the league. That's how bad this season has been for finding complete teams.
You want Tebow to face a team that has a respectable or better defense and offense? Fair enough. Of course, there are very few QBs in the entire league who are going to face that combination. And it's primarily restricted to the AFC North. So you're basically demanding that Tebow do something the majority of QBs in the league aren't being asked to do. Are you judging all of them the same way or just Tebow?
It's OK, you don't have to answer that. It was a rhetorical question. [/QUOTE]You're twisting my words Tom, by completely omitting the OFFENSIVE part. I didn't say he has to face elite defenses either. But he has feasted off some of the worst.
Let's see how many teams are in the bottom HALF of at least TWO of the following: OFFENSE (by points), rushing D or passing D (by fantasy points allowed, not just yardage; afterall, we ARE evaluating him as a FANTASY football QB).
1. MIA
2. MIN
3. TEN
4. DEN (they don't count for this tho
5. WAS
6. PHI
7. JAC
8. ARI
9. NYG
10. KC
11. CLE
12. CAR
13. BUF
14. STL
15. OAK
16. TB
17. IND
Five of his eight opponents satisfy at least two of those criteria. The other 3 were held in check by the DEN defense. As long as one of these cosmic phenomena keep occurring, the magic can likely continue. But if not, hmmmm.
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
Tom, he doesn't have to face an elite defense and elite offense. I'd just like to see him play a game where at least one of those wasn't near the bottom. There IS a difference. He has. Chargers are Top 10 both in total defense and total offense.
You know what's interesting about San Diego? They are the ONLY team in the league that ranks in the Top 10 in total defense and total offense. That's the point I was making.
Now if you want to go a little deeper, then Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Baltimore do rank in the Top 15 in both offense and defense. However, that's only four teams that could be viewed as at least average in both categories. Four. That's it. That's 12.5% of the league. That's how bad this season has been for finding complete teams.
You want Tebow to face a team that has a respectable or better defense and offense? Fair enough. Of course, there are very few QBs in the entire league who are going to face that combination. And it's primarily restricted to the AFC North. So you're basically demanding that Tebow do something the majority of QBs in the league aren't being asked to do. Are you judging all of them the same way or just Tebow?
It's OK, you don't have to answer that. It was a rhetorical question. [/QUOTE]You're twisting my words Tom, by completely omitting the OFFENSIVE part.
I didn't say he has to face elite defenses either. But he has feasted off some of the worst. Let's see how many teams are in the bottom HALF of at least TWO of the following: OFFENSE (by points), rushing D or passing D (by fantasy points allowed, not just yardage; afterall, we ARE evaluating him as a FANTASY football QB).
1. MIA
2. MIN
3. TEN
4. DEN (they don't count for this tho
5. WAS
6. PHI
7. JAC
8. ARI
9. NYG
10. KC
11. CLE
12. CAR
13. BUF
14. STL
15. OAK
16. TB
17. IND
Five of his eight opponents satisfy at least two of those criteria. The other 3 were held in check by the DEN defense. As long as one of these cosmic phenomena keep occurring, the magic can likely continue. But if not, hmmmm.
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Tom Kessenich
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Mike, I didn't leave out of the offensive part. I listed the four teams in the entire league who have Top 15 offenses and defenses after Week 14. Four teams in a 32-team league. So you're basically demanding that Tebow meet a criteria that very few QBs (and hardly anyone outside of the AFC North) have to face.
The point is you keep creating all of these hurdles you insist Tebow must clear in order for him to be relevant in your eyes. Then when he clears them, you ignore the fact he does and create new ones (in this case one virtually no other QB will encounter this season) for him to clear.
Bottom line is Tebow has become a reliable and consistent QB1 for his fantasy owners and he's obviously had a huge impact on the Broncos going from being one of the worst teams in the league to being the front-runner in the AFC West. At this point, anyone attempting to argue otherwise is clearly in denial.
It's OK, though, a lot of folks remain in denial too. You can go hang out with Brian Urlacher and lament all the attention Tebow is getting. Better yet, make plans to do so during the playoffs. I'm guessing Urlacher will have some free time then.
Tebow won't.
The point is you keep creating all of these hurdles you insist Tebow must clear in order for him to be relevant in your eyes. Then when he clears them, you ignore the fact he does and create new ones (in this case one virtually no other QB will encounter this season) for him to clear.
Bottom line is Tebow has become a reliable and consistent QB1 for his fantasy owners and he's obviously had a huge impact on the Broncos going from being one of the worst teams in the league to being the front-runner in the AFC West. At this point, anyone attempting to argue otherwise is clearly in denial.
It's OK, though, a lot of folks remain in denial too. You can go hang out with Brian Urlacher and lament all the attention Tebow is getting. Better yet, make plans to do so during the playoffs. I'm guessing Urlacher will have some free time then.
Tebow won't.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
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Old School
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Sandman. I never told you to "stuff your spreadsheets".
Dude c'mon. I like spreadsheets. Some of my best friends have spreadsheets
This is Christmas time. Stop being the Scrooge and kicking Tiny Tim Tebow's crutches
I have to say this though. Your spreadsheets will explode this week when Tebow throws up a 30-40 fantasy point game against a "good" team.
And one more thing...Tom Kessenich is an incredibly astute and wise man
[ December 13, 2011, 03:02 PM: Message edited by: Old School ]
Dude c'mon. I like spreadsheets. Some of my best friends have spreadsheets
This is Christmas time. Stop being the Scrooge and kicking Tiny Tim Tebow's crutches
I have to say this though. Your spreadsheets will explode this week when Tebow throws up a 30-40 fantasy point game against a "good" team.
And one more thing...Tom Kessenich is an incredibly astute and wise man
[ December 13, 2011, 03:02 PM: Message edited by: Old School ]
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Tom Kessenich
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Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
For those starting Tebow this week, what are your projections against the Patriots?
I keep coming up with 250 yards passing, 2 TDs and 45-50 yards rushing. But I really think that could be conservative. It's not like the Patriots have been gashed only by elite QBs. They've been torn apart by nearly everyone. They give up a lot of big plays downfield and you know Tebow will take plenty of shots as he always does. The Patriots are so bad in the secondary it's not a reach to see him connecting with Thomas and/or Decker for TD bombs and maybe Rod Smith too.
I tend to be conservative when it comes to projecting how my players will do (helps prevent any major letdowns ) but I really think he has Top 5 potential this week. The matchup is insanely good.
[ December 13, 2011, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]
I keep coming up with 250 yards passing, 2 TDs and 45-50 yards rushing. But I really think that could be conservative. It's not like the Patriots have been gashed only by elite QBs. They've been torn apart by nearly everyone. They give up a lot of big plays downfield and you know Tebow will take plenty of shots as he always does. The Patriots are so bad in the secondary it's not a reach to see him connecting with Thomas and/or Decker for TD bombs and maybe Rod Smith too.
I tend to be conservative when it comes to projecting how my players will do (helps prevent any major letdowns
) but I really think he has Top 5 potential this week. The matchup is insanely good.[ December 13, 2011, 03:10 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
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Old School
- Posts: 1084
- Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:00 pm
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
For those starting Tebow this week, what are your projections against the Patriots?
I keep coming up with 250 yards passing, 2 TDs and 45-50 yards rushing. But I really think that could be conservative. It's not like the Patriots have been gashed only by elite QBs. They've been torn apart by nearly everyone. They give up a lot of big plays downfield and you know Tebow will take plenty of shots as he always does. The Patriots are so bad in the secondary it's not a reach to see him connecting with Thomas and/or Decker for TD bombs and maybe Rod Smith too.
I tend to be conservative when it comes to projecting how my players will do (helps prevent any major letdowns ) but I really think he has Top 5 potential this week. The matchup is insanely good. Well, u know how I feel tom and I am starting him in a couple championships this weekend.
Also, I'd like to nominate my least favorite player who is Brandon Lloyd. He basically quit because he didnt want to play for losers and for Tebow. So how does it feel, Brandon, to be on the worst team in football trying to catch passes from a far more inaccurate passer in Bradford, while youre old team heads for the playoffs? :rolleyes:
For those starting Tebow this week, what are your projections against the Patriots?
I keep coming up with 250 yards passing, 2 TDs and 45-50 yards rushing. But I really think that could be conservative. It's not like the Patriots have been gashed only by elite QBs. They've been torn apart by nearly everyone. They give up a lot of big plays downfield and you know Tebow will take plenty of shots as he always does. The Patriots are so bad in the secondary it's not a reach to see him connecting with Thomas and/or Decker for TD bombs and maybe Rod Smith too.
I tend to be conservative when it comes to projecting how my players will do (helps prevent any major letdowns
) but I really think he has Top 5 potential this week. The matchup is insanely good. Well, u know how I feel tom and I am starting him in a couple championships this weekend.Also, I'd like to nominate my least favorite player who is Brandon Lloyd. He basically quit because he didnt want to play for losers and for Tebow. So how does it feel, Brandon, to be on the worst team in football trying to catch passes from a far more inaccurate passer in Bradford, while youre old team heads for the playoffs? :rolleyes: