Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
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Old School
- Posts: 1084
- Joined: Sun Aug 10, 2008 6:00 pm
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
To quote from the great Wayne Ellis (aka Coltsfan) "This thread should go on forever"
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
dont worry joe , cant pull that trigger. this is the first chapter with more to come. if we are talking standup guy then he is MVP. as a qb time will tell. On an unrelated note, I was born not far from you in Poughkeepsie NY and have some fam in Danbury CT [/QUOTE]well when you visit. pm me and have lunch. nothing like a few beers and tebow debate.
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
dont worry joe , cant pull that trigger. this is the first chapter with more to come. if we are talking standup guy then he is MVP. as a qb time will tell. On an unrelated note, I was born not far from you in Poughkeepsie NY and have some fam in Danbury CT [/QUOTE]well when you visit. pm me and have lunch. nothing like a few beers and tebow debate.
THIS IS THE BUSINESS WE HAVE CHOSEN
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Tom Kessenich
- Posts: 30158
- Joined: Tue Apr 06, 2004 6:00 pm
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
I think Strength of Schedule is an overrated stat but for the sake of discussion I'd be interested in knowing what his SOS has been since he became the starter. I would be surprised if it was the easiest among QBs with the Jets, Chargers and Bears all on the list of teams he's faced so far.
Tom Kessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Manager of High Stakes Fantasy Games, SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @TomKessenich
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Bullgod:
I'd like to see a breakdown of Tebow's passing this year. 18-24 in the 4th Q and OT are certainly impressive numbers at face value. Does anyone know of a site that would show 0-9 yard passes, 10-19 yard passes and so on? Passing numbers in the last five minutes of a game (against a prevent defense).
My take on Tebow's numbers this week, he threw a LOT of underneath stuff in the last five minutes and overtime.
I didn't see 6 drops. In fact they went through his drops, basically FOX or CBS (i forget) was trying to build him up and blame his receivers when he was 3-16 through three quarters. They showed 2 and a half drops. Maybe its my hating eyes but the pass to Thomas on the post looked like it was overthrown. I don't remember three drops in the 4th quarter & OT. Drops are part of the game. To say he could have been near 65% completion if his receivers didn't drop any passes is like saying I could have had six wives if it wasn't illegal and the one and only Mrs. Sorge would agree to it . NOT!
Ask Matt Ryan about drops this year! Every quarterback in the league deals with drops. Heck Eli Manning would be close to Aaron Rodgers numbers IF Cruz didn't drop 3 balls a game!
Here are the facts...Tebow is 7-1 as a starter. Yawn. Kyle Orton was 6-0 as a starter for the Broncos in McDumbiels first year. Quarterback win loss record is an overrated stat. Interesting to look at but overrated.
Tebow has the worst completion % in the league 48.5%. That means I could flip a coin 1000 times and probably have a higher percentage of heads and tails than Tebow completions!!! John Fox came out and said "teams are daring us to throw it". That tells me he is throwing against single coverage for the first 55 minutes of games and against a prevent defense the last 5 minutes or so.
48.5%!!! We are talking Ryan Leaf numbers here! I get that he has pulled out some improbable comebacks but the Pro-Tebows somehow only see Tebow winning the game.
I'm going to find replays of his 11 Touchdown passes and see how many were legitimate NFL throws and how many were scrambling OOPS look at that guy, someone forgot to guard him TD's like the game winner against the Vikes.
I also agree with Sandman...rev up that machine for next years draft!!! Take Tebow before any of the QB's he mentioned....PLEASE.
I guess I'm a hater but he hasn't showed me any talent as an NFL quarterback. As far as fantasy goes? I don't like to have the 10th-12th rated quarterback in a league that rewards you so much for great quarterback play. You can have your 20-22 points most games. For me that is a bad week at quarterback! Eggs-actly
I'd like to see a breakdown of Tebow's passing this year. 18-24 in the 4th Q and OT are certainly impressive numbers at face value. Does anyone know of a site that would show 0-9 yard passes, 10-19 yard passes and so on? Passing numbers in the last five minutes of a game (against a prevent defense).
My take on Tebow's numbers this week, he threw a LOT of underneath stuff in the last five minutes and overtime.
I didn't see 6 drops. In fact they went through his drops, basically FOX or CBS (i forget) was trying to build him up and blame his receivers when he was 3-16 through three quarters. They showed 2 and a half drops. Maybe its my hating eyes but the pass to Thomas on the post looked like it was overthrown. I don't remember three drops in the 4th quarter & OT. Drops are part of the game. To say he could have been near 65% completion if his receivers didn't drop any passes is like saying I could have had six wives if it wasn't illegal and the one and only Mrs. Sorge would agree to it . NOT!
Ask Matt Ryan about drops this year! Every quarterback in the league deals with drops. Heck Eli Manning would be close to Aaron Rodgers numbers IF Cruz didn't drop 3 balls a game!
Here are the facts...Tebow is 7-1 as a starter. Yawn. Kyle Orton was 6-0 as a starter for the Broncos in McDumbiels first year. Quarterback win loss record is an overrated stat. Interesting to look at but overrated.
Tebow has the worst completion % in the league 48.5%. That means I could flip a coin 1000 times and probably have a higher percentage of heads and tails than Tebow completions!!! John Fox came out and said "teams are daring us to throw it". That tells me he is throwing against single coverage for the first 55 minutes of games and against a prevent defense the last 5 minutes or so.
48.5%!!! We are talking Ryan Leaf numbers here! I get that he has pulled out some improbable comebacks but the Pro-Tebows somehow only see Tebow winning the game.
I'm going to find replays of his 11 Touchdown passes and see how many were legitimate NFL throws and how many were scrambling OOPS look at that guy, someone forgot to guard him TD's like the game winner against the Vikes.
I also agree with Sandman...rev up that machine for next years draft!!! Take Tebow before any of the QB's he mentioned....PLEASE.
I guess I'm a hater but he hasn't showed me any talent as an NFL quarterback. As far as fantasy goes? I don't like to have the 10th-12th rated quarterback in a league that rewards you so much for great quarterback play. You can have your 20-22 points most games. For me that is a bad week at quarterback! Eggs-actly
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I think Strength of Schedule is an overrated stat but for the sake of discussion I'd be interested in knowing what his SOS has been since he became the starter. I would be surprised if it was the easiest among QBs with the Jets, Chargers and Bears all on the list of teams he's faced so far. jets the only team in that list who will make playoffs...bears not the same team without forte and cutler..they lost at HOME to the chiefs so I guess Tyler Palko must be great also..lol
I think Strength of Schedule is an overrated stat but for the sake of discussion I'd be interested in knowing what his SOS has been since he became the starter. I would be surprised if it was the easiest among QBs with the Jets, Chargers and Bears all on the list of teams he's faced so far. jets the only team in that list who will make playoffs...bears not the same team without forte and cutler..they lost at HOME to the chiefs so I guess Tyler Palko must be great also..lol
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
i dont want either one but you sure take this hard. lol. take a chill pill man. its only football.
down goes tebow Ok Frank. Bu tif I see Tebow on your roster next year, I'll razz u till the cows come home. and yes, I'm a little ticked already today having a bad week in the championship round .
Tebow = Rocky [/QUOTE]Tebow=white version of vince young [/QUOTE]Exactly. Tebow builds hospitals in third-world countries and V Young makes it rain in strip clubs.
[/QUOTE]HEY HEY . thats low. i have done alot of praying at strip clubs and most of them STILL did not go home with me.
quote:Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
i dont want either one but you sure take this hard. lol. take a chill pill man. its only football.
down goes tebow Ok Frank. Bu tif I see Tebow on your roster next year, I'll razz u till the cows come home. and yes, I'm a little ticked already today having a bad week in the championship round .
Tebow = Rocky [/QUOTE]Tebow=white version of vince young [/QUOTE]Exactly. Tebow builds hospitals in third-world countries and V Young makes it rain in strip clubs.
[/QUOTE]HEY HEY . thats low. i have done alot of praying at strip clubs and most of them STILL did not go home with me.THIS IS THE BUSINESS WE HAVE CHOSEN
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Bullgod:
You can have your 20-22 points most games. For me that is a bad week at quarterback! I disagree Pat. The reality is only three teams are going to have Rodgers, Brees and Brady. So that means the other 9/11 have to find a reliable starter elsewhere. Now Tebow's upside hasn't yet been as high as guys like Stafford, Cam or Eli and I would start all of them over Tebow most weeks. But as I posted several pages back, Tebow's floor is also lower than every QB not named Rodgers, Brees or Brady. So while other QBs have tossed up a stinker or two (or sometimes three or four), Tebow hasn't done that yet. In a season which has seen so much volatility I think that type of consistency and reliability is huge.
If you told me I could take QB A who scored 18 points per week or QB B who scored 25 points one week and 11 the next, I'm taking QB A. Sure I might not get the upside, but the downside isn't likely to hurt me and that reliability should give my team a better chance to do well each week. [/QUOTE]That's because you still believe that this 8-game lucky streak of bad and/or battered opponents truly represents his floor (currently 18). What if his floor ends up being 15 next year? (Then again, many would still take him just for the THRILL of having him on their teams! )
Before I'd draft Tebow, I'd take every QB above him not named Sanchez, including Vick and Schaub who aren't listed, and maybe even Dalton (seeing I think Tebow's floor is lower than currently and Dalton's higher). Hell, I'd still even consider Cutler too! They have higher upside and in most cases, higher points. That's the main goal of NFFC QBs, IMO... highest scoring. And for H2H, whose to say you'll win more games with a high-floor QB? Having one who can occasionally toss up a 35-40 point game might help your team more in the long run. And on weeks that your QB sh.ts the bed, unless many of your other players step up, you're in a tough spot anyway. My opinion anyway.
NFFC QB Scoring Since Tebow Became Starter:
Rank Player AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGH LOW
1 Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 35.3 35.5 44.6 25.0
2 Brees, Drew (NO) 33.0 29.4 48.9 17.3
3 Brady, Tom (NE) 29.8 27.1 38.8 21.9
4 Newton, Cam (CAR) 29.7 30.7 43.3 15.1
5 Ryan, Matt (ATL) 27.6 29.4 40.0 18.3
6 Manning, Eli (NYG) 27.5 29.1 33.3 17.2
7 Romo, Tony (DAL) 26.2 24.2 40.0 16.0
8 Stafford, Matthew (DET) 26.1 23.7 44.9 15.1
9 Rivers, Philip (SD) 24.5 24.1 40.1 12.8
10 Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 23.7 22.8 35.8 15.4
11 Sanchez, Mark (NYJ) 22.9 26.4 32.5 11.6
12 Tebow, Tim (DEN) 22.4 20.3 30.0 18.0
13 Ponder, Christian (MIN) 20.8 18.2 35.2 10.2
14 Dalton, Andy (CIN) 20.0 18.7 29.2 13.3
15 Palmer, Carson (OAK) 19.1 20.7 31.9 2.8
16 Freeman, Josh (TB) 18.9 17.9 27.6 14.0
17 Moore, Matt (MIA) 18.4 17.4 30.5 8.8
18 Fitzpatrick, Ryan (BUF) 18.0 16.4 34.6 9.4
19 Smith, Alex (SF) 17.7 17.0 26.7 7.2
20 Flacco, Joe (BAL) 16.8 17.4 24.3 6.8
21 McCoy, Colt (CLE) 15.0 14.4 22.3 9.9
22 Jackson, Tarvaris (SEA) 14.0 15.3 18.2 8.3
23 Gabbert, Blaine (JAC) 12.4 11.5 22.6 4.5
24 Hasselbeck, Matt (TEN) 12.3 10.5 25.9 2.2
[ December 13, 2011, 05:08 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
quote:Originally posted by Bullgod:
You can have your 20-22 points most games. For me that is a bad week at quarterback! I disagree Pat. The reality is only three teams are going to have Rodgers, Brees and Brady. So that means the other 9/11 have to find a reliable starter elsewhere. Now Tebow's upside hasn't yet been as high as guys like Stafford, Cam or Eli and I would start all of them over Tebow most weeks. But as I posted several pages back, Tebow's floor is also lower than every QB not named Rodgers, Brees or Brady. So while other QBs have tossed up a stinker or two (or sometimes three or four), Tebow hasn't done that yet. In a season which has seen so much volatility I think that type of consistency and reliability is huge.
If you told me I could take QB A who scored 18 points per week or QB B who scored 25 points one week and 11 the next, I'm taking QB A. Sure I might not get the upside, but the downside isn't likely to hurt me and that reliability should give my team a better chance to do well each week. [/QUOTE]That's because you still believe that this 8-game lucky streak of bad and/or battered opponents truly represents his floor (currently 18). What if his floor ends up being 15 next year? (Then again, many would still take him just for the THRILL of having him on their teams! )
Before I'd draft Tebow, I'd take every QB above him not named Sanchez, including Vick and Schaub who aren't listed, and maybe even Dalton (seeing I think Tebow's floor is lower than currently and Dalton's higher). Hell, I'd still even consider Cutler too! They have higher upside and in most cases, higher points. That's the main goal of NFFC QBs, IMO... highest scoring. And for H2H, whose to say you'll win more games with a high-floor QB? Having one who can occasionally toss up a 35-40 point game might help your team more in the long run. And on weeks that your QB sh.ts the bed, unless many of your other players step up, you're in a tough spot anyway. My opinion anyway.
NFFC QB Scoring Since Tebow Became Starter:
Rank Player AVERAGE MEDIAN HIGH LOW
1 Rodgers, Aaron (GB) 35.3 35.5 44.6 25.0
2 Brees, Drew (NO) 33.0 29.4 48.9 17.3
3 Brady, Tom (NE) 29.8 27.1 38.8 21.9
4 Newton, Cam (CAR) 29.7 30.7 43.3 15.1
5 Ryan, Matt (ATL) 27.6 29.4 40.0 18.3
6 Manning, Eli (NYG) 27.5 29.1 33.3 17.2
7 Romo, Tony (DAL) 26.2 24.2 40.0 16.0
8 Stafford, Matthew (DET) 26.1 23.7 44.9 15.1
9 Rivers, Philip (SD) 24.5 24.1 40.1 12.8
10 Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 23.7 22.8 35.8 15.4
11 Sanchez, Mark (NYJ) 22.9 26.4 32.5 11.6
12 Tebow, Tim (DEN) 22.4 20.3 30.0 18.0
13 Ponder, Christian (MIN) 20.8 18.2 35.2 10.2
14 Dalton, Andy (CIN) 20.0 18.7 29.2 13.3
15 Palmer, Carson (OAK) 19.1 20.7 31.9 2.8
16 Freeman, Josh (TB) 18.9 17.9 27.6 14.0
17 Moore, Matt (MIA) 18.4 17.4 30.5 8.8
18 Fitzpatrick, Ryan (BUF) 18.0 16.4 34.6 9.4
19 Smith, Alex (SF) 17.7 17.0 26.7 7.2
20 Flacco, Joe (BAL) 16.8 17.4 24.3 6.8
21 McCoy, Colt (CLE) 15.0 14.4 22.3 9.9
22 Jackson, Tarvaris (SEA) 14.0 15.3 18.2 8.3
23 Gabbert, Blaine (JAC) 12.4 11.5 22.6 4.5
24 Hasselbeck, Matt (TEN) 12.3 10.5 25.9 2.2
[ December 13, 2011, 05:08 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I think Strength of Schedule is an overrated stat but for the sake of discussion I'd be interested in knowing what his SOS has been since he became the starter. I would be surprised if it was the easiest among QBs with the Jets, Chargers and Bears all on the list of teams he's faced so far. Ask all the people who drafted Bowe, Mike Williams, Blount, etc. what they think of SOS? The Chiefs and Bucs were big benefactors last year, not so this year. Hmmm...
You're right about only 5 Tebow opponents being terrible on defense. But the 3 good ones you listed, when Tebow faced them, they were all not playing anywhere near their usual offensive potential so the games stayed close (none of them scored over 13 points).
1. The Jets had no LT and lost Greene in the 1st quarter.
2. The Chargers have been horrible all year up until a couple weeks ago and Rivers only threw 188 yards vs. DEN.
3. The Bears were obviously in the worst shape, without Cutler and Forte AND stuck with half-witted Barber to give away the game!
I think Strength of Schedule is an overrated stat but for the sake of discussion I'd be interested in knowing what his SOS has been since he became the starter. I would be surprised if it was the easiest among QBs with the Jets, Chargers and Bears all on the list of teams he's faced so far. Ask all the people who drafted Bowe, Mike Williams, Blount, etc. what they think of SOS? The Chiefs and Bucs were big benefactors last year, not so this year. Hmmm...
You're right about only 5 Tebow opponents being terrible on defense. But the 3 good ones you listed, when Tebow faced them, they were all not playing anywhere near their usual offensive potential so the games stayed close (none of them scored over 13 points).
1. The Jets had no LT and lost Greene in the 1st quarter.
2. The Chargers have been horrible all year up until a couple weeks ago and Rivers only threw 188 yards vs. DEN.
3. The Bears were obviously in the worst shape, without Cutler and Forte AND stuck with half-witted Barber to give away the game!
Tim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
i dont want either one but you sure take this hard. lol. take a chill pill man. its only football.
down goes tebow Ok Frank. Bu tif I see Tebow on your roster next year, I'll razz u till the cows come home. and yes, I'm a little ticked already today having a bad week in the championship round .
Tebow = Rocky [/QUOTE]Tebow=white version of vince young [/QUOTE]Exactly. Tebow builds hospitals in third-world countries and V Young makes it rain in strip clubs. [/QUOTE]HEY HEY . thats low. i have done alot of praying at strip clubs and most of them STILL did not go home with me. [/QUOTE]LOL that was good...hahaha
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by THE_BLACKHAND:
i dont want either one but you sure take this hard. lol. take a chill pill man. its only football.
down goes tebow Ok Frank. Bu tif I see Tebow on your roster next year, I'll razz u till the cows come home. and yes, I'm a little ticked already today having a bad week in the championship round .
Tebow = Rocky [/QUOTE]Tebow=white version of vince young [/QUOTE]Exactly. Tebow builds hospitals in third-world countries and V Young makes it rain in strip clubs.
[/QUOTE]HEY HEY . thats low. i have done alot of praying at strip clubs and most of them STILL did not go home with me. [/QUOTE]LOL that was good...hahahaTim Tebow - Let's Talk
Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Tebow has beaten two of the best defenses in the league (Jets and Bears). All last week, we kept hearing about how the Bears would finally be the team that stopped him. Well they didn't - not for the entire game anyway.
Every week, it's a new reason why Tebow won't deliver. So far every week he's delivered since the Lions debacle. Will it end at some point? The odds certainly suggest it will. Unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, chances are you're going to have a stinker of a game at some point. Maybe this will be the week Tebow doesn't get it done. I'm already hearing that this will finally be the week because the Patriots will turn the game into a track meet and Tebow won't be able to keep up. So we'll see what happens.
If people are waiting for Tebow to face a team that possesses both a good defense and a good offense, they are probably going to be waiting awhile. There isn't a single team in the NFL that I would categorize as having both this season. So far Tebow has beaten good defenses and now he's going to face an elite offense. From a fantasy perspective, Tebow has proven to be extremely reliable and consistent. You have been able to start him every week since the Lions loss without having to worry about whether he was going to soil the bed. He hasn't done it a single time.
Again, unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, there isn't another QB who can make the same claim.
Does Tebow have an elite upside? He hasn't shown it yet (although he very well could this week). But that low floor and consistency is huge in my opinion when there is so much volatility on a weekly basis.
We'll see what happens on Sunday. All I know is the people who keep betting against Tebow continue to look more and more foolish as this amazing run continues. Not at all....had no problem betting against Tebow when he faced Lions and will do so again should Steelers be lucky enuff to draw him 1st round of playoffs with pt spread around 3 or so because of all the tebow hype over beating bad/incomplete teams. He will be brutally exposed again. I hope he keeps on winning so I won't have to give as many pts come playoff time...
Tebow has beaten two of the best defenses in the league (Jets and Bears). All last week, we kept hearing about how the Bears would finally be the team that stopped him. Well they didn't - not for the entire game anyway.
Every week, it's a new reason why Tebow won't deliver. So far every week he's delivered since the Lions debacle. Will it end at some point? The odds certainly suggest it will. Unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, chances are you're going to have a stinker of a game at some point. Maybe this will be the week Tebow doesn't get it done. I'm already hearing that this will finally be the week because the Patriots will turn the game into a track meet and Tebow won't be able to keep up. So we'll see what happens.
If people are waiting for Tebow to face a team that possesses both a good defense and a good offense, they are probably going to be waiting awhile. There isn't a single team in the NFL that I would categorize as having both this season. So far Tebow has beaten good defenses and now he's going to face an elite offense. From a fantasy perspective, Tebow has proven to be extremely reliable and consistent. You have been able to start him every week since the Lions loss without having to worry about whether he was going to soil the bed. He hasn't done it a single time.
Again, unless your name is Rodgers, Brees or Brady, there isn't another QB who can make the same claim.
Does Tebow have an elite upside? He hasn't shown it yet (although he very well could this week). But that low floor and consistency is huge in my opinion when there is so much volatility on a weekly basis.
We'll see what happens on Sunday. All I know is the people who keep betting against Tebow continue to look more and more foolish as this amazing run continues. Not at all....had no problem betting against Tebow when he faced Lions and will do so again should Steelers be lucky enuff to draw him 1st round of playoffs with pt spread around 3 or so because of all the tebow hype over beating bad/incomplete teams. He will be brutally exposed again. I hope he keeps on winning so I won't have to give as many pts come playoff time...