Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 4:40 pm

I'm not going to lie - the Buffalo Debacle scared me quite a bit when evaluating Tebow's potential for 2012. But when you look at his body of work and see 14 starts and only one poor performance (albeit a REALLY poor performance) that strikes me as a player without a great deal of risk and a great deal of upside.

The risk I see with Tebow is the possibility he shows no further improvement and at some point next season is benched. Until we see what improvement, if any, he makes next season there's no way to answer that at this time. However, I don't deny that possibility exists and it will likely impact where I rank Tebow next season, depending on preseason performance.

But I'm not sure there will be many QBs drafted where Tebow is likely to go in fantasy drafts who have his upside. I love Sam Bradford to death but he hasn't shown this type of fantasy potential. Neither has Josh Freeman. I'm just citing them because they are two young QBs who were expected to take leaps forward this season and did not. Both also have more starting experience but have shown less from a fantasy perspective. I think Tebow likely goes ahead of both in drafts next season and honestly he should based on what he's done so far.

I'd still prefer to get Tebow as a QB2 but that may not be possible. If I were to draft him as a QB1, ideally I'd have a decent QB2 in place (someone like Flacco or maybe Palmer) so the position didn't completely go to hell if Tebow were to be benched. But for those who prefer to wait on QBs, I'm not sure there will be a better target next season than Tebow given his fantasy upside. There's risk involved with every QB if you decide to hold off on the position, but I'm not sure you'll find anyone in that range with Tebow's potential.

[ January 09, 2012, 10:47 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

alanr824 · Post by **alanr824** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:33 pm

Fantasy QBs

Elite - Rodgers - Brees - Brady - Cam - P Manning?
Top - Stafford - E Manning - Rivers - Romo
Good - Ryan - Cutler - Vick - Big Ben - Tebow -
Avg - Schaub? - Palmer - Locker - Sanchez - Flacco -Dalton - Fitz - A Smith

I see a lot of upside in Stafford, Tebow, Locker
I see a lot of downside in P Manning, Schaub, Vick

Then you have Luck, but who knows if he plays his first year or not. If Manning is there and healthy, Manning plays.

Based upon fantasy numbers, I see Tebow being #11 or #12 off the board, with a combo being with Locker, Palmer, or Flacco. If you decide to make your strategy getting 3 top receivers and 2 decent RBs, along with a decent TE, 7th round could get you Tebow with upside. I would take that team.

[ January 09, 2012, 11:38 PM: Message edited by: Al R G ]

TR · Post by TR » Mon Jan 09, 2012 5:44 pm

Originally posted by Al R G:
Fantasy QBs

Elite - Rodgers - Brees - Brady - Cam - P Manning?
Top - Stafford - E Manning - Rivers - Romo
Good - Ryan - Cutler - Vick - Big Ben - Tebow -
Avg - Schaub? - Palmer - Locker - Sanchez - Flacco -Dalton - Fitz - A Smith

I see a lot of upside in Stafford, Tebow, Locker
I see a lot of downside in P Manning, Schaub, Vick

Then you have Luck, but who knows if he plays his first year or not. If Manning is there and healthy, Manning plays.

Based upon fantasy numbers, I see Tebow being #11 or #12 off the board, with a combo being with Locker, Palmer, or Flacco. If you decide to make your strategy getting 3 top receivers and 2 decent RBs, along with a decent TE, 7th round could get you Tebow with upside. I would take that team. lol @ Stafford not elite...

KenGill · Post by **KenGill** » Mon Jan 09, 2012 11:00 pm

Tebow has now competed about a year a half of starting games in the NFL. Let's go back to archives and look at some other top QB's. I don't feel like putting all of the numbers here, but look them up for yourself and see how INEPT these QB's were in their first two seasons.

Terry Bradshaw: 1970 and 1971
Troy Aikman: 1989 and 1990
Randall Cunningham 1985 and 1986
Vinny Testaverde 1987 and 1988
Bart Starr 1957 and 1958
Joe Namath 1965 and 1966
Phil Simms 1979 and 1980
Jim Plunkett 1971 and 1972
Fran Tarkenton 1961 and 1962
Steve Bartkowski 1975, 1976, 1977 (3 really bad years in a row)

These guys all became good QB's at a later time and quite a few are in Canton right now. The point is that is still WAY to early to know if Tebow is going to make it or not. Give him another full season and let's see where things stand.

TR · Post by TR » Tue Jan 10, 2012 12:51 am

Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Tebow has now competed about a year a half of starting games in the NFL. Let's go back to archives and look at some other top QB's. I don't feel like putting all of the numbers here, but look them up for yourself and see how INEPT these QB's were in their first two seasons.

Terry Bradshaw: 1970 and 1971
Troy Aikman: 1989 and 1990
Randall Cunningham 1985 and 1986
Vinny Testaverde 1987 and 1988
Bart Starr 1957 and 1958
Joe Namath 1965 and 1966
Phil Simms 1979 and 1980
Jim Plunkett 1971 and 1972
Fran Tarkenton 1961 and 1962
Steve Bartkowski 1975, 1976, 1977 (3 really bad years in a row)

These guys all became good QB's at a later time and quite a few are in Canton right now. The point is that is still WAY to early to know if Tebow is going to make it or not. Give him another full season and let's see where things stand. None of the guys in that list were option qbs in the nfl. It's not way to early to get a good idea. The wildcat worked in miami couple seasons ago with a few other teams copyying and using it...where is it now?

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 1:14 am

Nor did those QBs have glaring, possibly uncorrectable throwing mechanics or constantly pull the ball down and take off running.

Apples... meet oranges.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:03 am

It would be incorrect to say Tebow constantly pulls the ball down and takes off running. That's actually quite rare. The vast majority of Tebow's runs are designed run plays. He's not prone to quickly abandoning a pass play and trying to run. If anything, he'll hold the ball too long and try to make a play. That's actually one area which separates him from other running QBs who have entered the league in recent years.

The mechanical issues are glaring without a doubt and need to be fixed. Of course, it's far too soon to say they are uncorrectable, especially when we've already seen Tebow make some strides to date and considering Elway has promised to work with him in the offseason. That's not a bad teacher to have in your corner, especially since Elway was also a mobile quarterback coming into the league.

Tebow had a few throws on Sunday where he looked off the safety and opened up a passing lane for his receiver. That's something most young QBs struggle to do. It was one of the many reasons why Tebow's performance was so impressive.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:49 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I'm not going to lie - the Buffalo Debacle scared me quite a bit when evaluating Tebow's potential for 2012. But when you look at his body of work and see 14 starts and only one poor performance (albeit a REALLY poor performance) that strikes me as a player without a great deal of risk and a great deal of upside.

The risk I see with Tebow is the possibility he shows no further improvement and at some point next season is benched. Until we see what improvement, if any, he makes next season there's no way to answer that at this time. However, I don't deny that possibility exists and it will likely impact where I rank Tebow next season, depending on preseason performance.

But I'm not sure there will be many QBs drafted where Tebow is likely to go in fantasy drafts who have his upside. I love Sam Bradford to death but he hasn't shown this type of fantasy potential. Neither has Josh Freeman. I'm just citing them because they are two young QBs who were expected to take leaps forward this season and did not. Both also have more starting experience but have shown less from a fantasy perspective. I think Tebow likely goes ahead of both in drafts next season and honestly he should based on what he's done so far.

I'd still prefer to get Tebow as a QB2 but that may not be possible. If I were to draft him as a QB1, ideally I'd have a decent QB2 in place (someone like Flacco or maybe Palmer) so the position didn't completely go to hell if Tebow were to be benched. But for those who prefer to wait on QBs, I'm not sure there will be a better target next season than Tebow given his fantasy upside. There's risk involved with every QB if you decide to hold off on the position, but I'm not sure you'll find anyone in that range with Tebow's potential. It's nice to see one of the "believers" admit that those games towards the end of the season raised some doubt. Too many people (not just on these boards) are blinded by the performance on Sunday and wanting to place Tebow in a class at this point in which he doesn't belong.

I would argue that he had only one poor performance out of his 14 starts. In the two games against KC he was a combined 8/30 for 129 yards. He may have had mediocre fantasy production in the Buffalo game but I will continue to classify 13/29 and 4 turnovers as a poor performance. Especially, when I'm sure most who started him that week were expecting a great effort against a very suspect defense.

He has done great things for his team and the league this year. There is no denying that. But if I'm evaluating him for next year, I've watched every game and witnessed how he was able to get his fantasy points. There are just too many long stretches of little or no production, only to salvage his fantasy totals in the 4th quarter. I understand that he is young and inexperienced so maybe he will show great improvement in his consistency throughout games next year. I'm just not going to buy in until I actually see that.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:55 am

CoMo, just so we're clear I wouldn't classify myself as a "believer." I've said repeatedly I have no idea if he will pan out as a legit NFL starter long-term. I simply have acknowledged his fantasy prowess as well as the fact that the Broncos clearly became a better team when he became the starter and he has been instrumental in leading them to the playoffs and now springing the postseason's biggest upset to date.

There's no question he needs to continue to work and make improvements in the passing game. I also take issue with those who seek to minimize what he's done despite all the facts staring them right in the face. At some point, it's just easier (or should be) to acknowledge the fact that he's done some pretty impressive things, both in terms of the NFL and fantasy. As I said before he's one of this season's biggest stories whether people like it or not. Personally, I think it's a great story because it's so often unbelievable what he's done and what he continues to do.

As a Tebow fantasy owner, there's no question picking him up in a couple of leagues was one of my best WW moves of the year. With only one poor fantasy performance in 14 career starts, his QB1 standing is impossible for me to question at this time. It's now become a matter of how high up on the rankings can he realistically ascend? As an NFL fan, I'm just enjoying this ride because it's unlike anything I've ever seen in all my years of watching and covering the NFL.

[ January 10, 2012, 08:56 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Tue Jan 10, 2012 3:05 am

Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:
Tebow has now competed about a year a half of starting games in the NFL. Let's go back to archives and look at some other top QB's. I don't feel like putting all of the numbers here, but look them up for yourself and see how INEPT these QB's were in their first two seasons.

Terry Bradshaw: 1970 and 1971
Troy Aikman: 1989 and 1990
Randall Cunningham 1985 and 1986
Vinny Testaverde 1987 and 1988
Bart Starr 1957 and 1958
Joe Namath 1965 and 1966
Phil Simms 1979 and 1980
Jim Plunkett 1971 and 1972
Fran Tarkenton 1961 and 1962
Steve Bartkowski 1975, 1976, 1977 (3 really bad years in a row)

These guys all became good QB's at a later time and quite a few are in Canton right now. The point is that is still WAY to early to know if Tebow is going to make it or not. Give him another full season and let's see where things stand. This may be a fair point Toxic. I wasn't around to witness and evaluate many of these QB's early years. But when I watch and evaluate Tebow this year, so many of his games were just absolute struggles throwing the ball. Completing only 46% of passes and just looking so unsure of himself while throwing the ball were glaring concerns for me. Maybe the other guys on the list had some of those same issues, I'm not sure.

I will give Tebow props and say that those other guys would have been hard pressed to have had more support from their teammates or the city in which they played in early on like Tebow has had.