Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:41 am

I disagree Mike. We can only compare bodies of work. Tebow made 10 starts. If you want to include his half of work against the Chargers that's fine with me. Not every QB played all 16 games this season. Schaub missed a lot of time. Vick missed time. Roethlisberger missed time. So did Cutler. If you want to take their actual stats and project them out to a full season that's fine with me. That's highly flawed in my opinion so I wouldn't put much stock in that approach.

One caveat here is I'm more than willing to include Tebow's Week 17 Buffalo Debacle in with his overall average. If someone wants to tally that up and come up with a new average, I'm good with that. I won't even ask that you also include his playoff performance against the Steelers - although you probably should.

As far as improvement, I'm not expecting guaranteed improvement. I'm simply saying it's likely he'll improve in some fashion given how he's already shown improvement this season and it's difficult for me to believe someone with his work ethic won't improve if he gets an offseason to work with John Elway.

I've said all along that Tebow's future is directly tied to how much improvement he can make as a passer. We all know this. But when you consider he's been a productive QB1 despite his glaring limitations it certainly should make him a highly coveted fantasy upside pick because his potential would soar if he did improve.

[ January 12, 2012, 08:44 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:47 am

Originally posted by BobSquad:
Sandman,
...
I think that you (perhaps unintentionally) have tailored your stats to combat this.

My two biggest clues are (1) use of median - of very little value for comparing qb's but the argument for it sounds good and (2) you continue to speak of his point distribution being largely late in games while ignoring the other extreme - in all likelihood, if he keeps his job, his near-zero early quarters will improve.

If a MLB batter goes 1 for 4 every game and the pattern is out-out-out-hit it's correct to assume that his 4th at bat won't always be a hit but you can't forget that his first three may not always be outs.

Bob Bob, Wayne also recently accused me of "using median QB scoring to make a point ". I posted a summary of every single post I've made in this thread where I mentioned "median" Check it out, then please report back how I've twisted numbers by using median.

I find it comical the way you and others consider Tebow's production:
- Anything he's doing well (i.e. fantasy points), you assume will continue or improve.
- Anything he does poorly (completion %, 3 quarters per game of crap, etc.) will also improve.
Pretty one-sided, IMO.

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:54 am

I came to the show a little late but read the entire thread. I used 6-16 average because this started as a FAAB discussion. Was he worth 500+ on the wire and he was a wk 6 pickup.

To assess future value you are dead on.

BTW I'm Wayne Ellis's sometimes co-owner. I figure an introduction might allow you guys to directly respond to one of my posts.

Bob

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:57 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
Sandman,
...
I think that you (perhaps unintentionally) have tailored your stats to combat this.

My two biggest clues are (1) use of median - of very little value for comparing qb's but the argument for it sounds good and (2) you continue to speak of his point distribution being largely late in games while ignoring the other extreme - in all likelihood, if he keeps his job, his near-zero early quarters will improve.

If a MLB batter goes 1 for 4 every game and the pattern is out-out-out-hit it's correct to assume that his 4th at bat won't always be a hit but you can't forget that his first three may not always be outs.

Bob Bob, Wayne also recently accused me of "using median QB scoring to make a point ". I posted a summary of every single post I've made in this thread where I mentioned "median" Check it out, then please report back how I've twisted numbers by using median.

I find it comical the way you and others consider Tebow's production:
- Anything he's doing well (i.e. fantasy points), you assume will continue or improve.
- Anything he does poorly (completion %, 3 quarters per game of crap, etc.) will also improve.
Pretty one-sided, IMO. [/QUOTE]Oops on the direct response.

I will NOT be surprised if his poor stats continue.

You cherry picked and I'm calling it out.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:58 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
I disagree Mike. We can only compare bodies of work. Tebow made 10 starts. If you want to include his half of work against the Chargers that's fine with me. Not every QB played all 16 games this season. Schaub missed a lot of time. Vick missed time. Roethlisberger missed time. So did Cutler. If you want to take their actual stats and project them out to a full season that's fine with me. That's highly flawed in my opinion so I wouldn't put much stock in that approach.

One caveat here is I'm more than willing to include Tebow's Week 17 Buffalo Debacle in with his overall average. If someone wants to tally that up and come up with a new average, I'm good with that. I won't even ask that you also include his playoff performance against the Steelers - although you probably should.

As far as improvement, I'm not expecting guaranteed improvement. I'm simply saying it's likely he'll improve in some fashion given how he's already shown improvement this season and it's difficult for me to believe someone with his work ethic won't improve if he gets an offseason to work with John Elway.

I've said all along that Tebow's future is directly tied to how much improvement he can make as a passer. We all know this. But when you consider he's been a productive QB1 despite his glaring limitations it certainly should make him a highly coveted fantasy upside pick because his potential would soar if he did improve. Tom, what exactly do you disagree with? My contention that it's fairest to compare his 10 starts to the last 10 games started by other QBs? (And btw, I do understand why you wouldn't object to me including his 1/2 game vs. SD or his PIT playoff game - they both would HELP his case; I wonder if you'd be so generous if those games were bad ones? Hmmm...)

I have no intention of trying to extrapolate other QB's stats. I simply think we should look at their last 10 games (whether consecutive or with some missing here and there). Why isn't 10 games = 10 games?

One more time on why we don't buy into the "productive QB1 despite his glaring limitations" argument: we feel that there was just too much luck involved with most of his games, so we don't believe he's seen his true floor over enough games yet. I get it that some disagree with this. You seem to want to use this year as his baseline/floor; we want to scale down this year's numbers a bit to predict what we think is his true floor.

Old School · Post by **Old School** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 2:58 am

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Al R G:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
I have an idea though Al... leave the comments about our ignorance out of it, ok? We don't say that Tebowites are ignorant or don't know football or aren't men (like has been said of us).

It's ok to have differing views, but just because we don't agree with you doesn't make us ignorant. Ya know, believe it or not, there IS a chance we're not totally FOS on this guy.

To be fair you repeatedly referred to them as 'the cult' inferring that they were basing their arguments on blind faith.

From the week 6 free agent pickups through week 16 Tebow (23.02) was #10 in average just behind Rivers (23.43). [/QUOTE]Don't bother... The ultimate "numbers" guy will twist his numbers somehow, in order to make Tebow look horrible....under 50% completion percentage... blah blah blah... and Tebow will continue to prove him and all of the doubters wrong. Maybe ignorance isn't the right word.. sorry Sandman.. no offense was intended... Anyways, gotta go oppose the anti-Tebow rally here in Connecticut... see ya Saturday!!! [/QUOTE]Statistics are usually brought up by the losers in the NFL. Completion % is not the definition of a successful QB. Tebow is not a dink and dunk QB, never will be. He's a great deep ball thrower. He could sit there and throw little screen passes and
5 yard passes but that does not take advantage of his skills.

Orton is a dunk and dunk who builds his completion %, but he sucks.

In addition, Tebow is a runner. Every time he extends drives by running for a first down, it is no different than completing a short pass for a first down. That's not reflected in completion %

I'll take 31.6 yards per completion with 3 total TD's rather than a 65% completion rate with a 7 yards per average and zero TD's. [/QUOTE]Who wouldn't take 3 TD's regardless of yards per completion over a zero TD performance? That's a no brainer. But how many times do you really think a QB will average 31.6 yards per completion? My guess is not many.

Regardless of how great of a deep ball thrower he is, he will have to be able to complete the intermediate length throws to be successful in this league. Those are the throws that extend drives and keep the chains moving. Too many times this year were the Broncos doing nothing but going three and out and punting the ball for the first three quarters. Even though they ended up winning most of those games, I'm sure they wished for more consistency from the offense. Besides, if chucking the ball deep was so easy, everybody would be doing it.

The good NFL QB's can make all the throws. It is still possible to have a high completion percentage and take shots deep downfield. Unless guys are running wide open, those should be more of the difficult throws anyway. [/QUOTE]disagree. the low completion % was because they would not let him throw on anything but 3rd down. NO Qb in the league will be successful when doing so. I've said it for weeks. Open up the offense for him. Guess what? it worked.
--------------------------------------------------------------
mechanics? I dont care about throwing motion.
It doesnt matter if he shoots the ball out of his back side. If throwing motion was the key, Philip Rivers wouldnt be in the NFL. The only fault I see with Timmy is he tries to guide his short throws and pulls the string thus the low balls. When he lets it go, he throws lasers on target.

This thread started about Tim Tebow, a quality NFL starter, not game predictions or fantasy Qb if I recall. The fact that Tebow has taken a team going nowhere and is within 1 game of the AFC champ
already has won that argument.

Fantasy wise, in a friendly offense, with FFPC scoring I'd gladly take him as a top 5 QB. WIth the NFC rules , a bit lower, but top ten yes.

Right now the haters gotta be getting their panties in a twist, for the mere, slim possibility that Tebow may get to the SB

ppreciate' it!

[ January 12, 2012, 08:59 AM: Message edited by: Old School ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:02 am

Mike, I think you compare Tebow's average as a starter with every other QB's average as a starter. That's the most logical way to do it in my opinion. It makes no sense to me to use his Week 6-16 stats (or Week 6-17 stats) compared to other QBs Week 6-17 stats. I don't see the value in cherry picking stats like that. Give me the entire body of work as starters for both players and that provides the information necessary.

As far as not including bad games, I'm not sure why you would make that leap when I clearly stated that people can use his Week 17 performance. Feel free to tally that up and provide a new average. We'll then see where he ranks among NFFC QBs this season.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:06 am

Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
Sandman,
...
I think that you (perhaps unintentionally) have tailored your stats to combat this.

My two biggest clues are (1) use of median - of very little value for comparing qb's but the argument for it sounds good and (2) you continue to speak of his point distribution being largely late in games while ignoring the other extreme - in all likelihood, if he keeps his job, his near-zero early quarters will improve.

If a MLB batter goes 1 for 4 every game and the pattern is out-out-out-hit it's correct to assume that his 4th at bat won't always be a hit but you can't forget that his first three may not always be outs.

Bob Bob, Wayne also recently accused me of "using median QB scoring to make a point ". I posted a summary of every single post I've made in this thread where I mentioned "median" Check it out, then please report back how I've twisted numbers by using median.

I find it comical the way you and others consider Tebow's production:
- Anything he's doing well (i.e. fantasy points), you assume will continue or improve.
- Anything he does poorly (completion %, 3 quarters per game of crap, etc.) will also improve.
Pretty one-sided, IMO. [/QUOTE]Oops on the direct response.

I will NOT be surprised if his poor stats continue.

You cherry picked and I'm calling it out. [/QUOTE]I have no idea what you mean. You and Wayne have now both tried to dismiss my numbers, claiming that I used median. Neither of you are pointing us to any of my posts to backup your claims. I highlighted every post of mine in this thread that contained the word "median". It was obviously in a controlled context regarding h2h value. Far far more of my numbers posts revolved around average PPG.

So either cite my twisted use of median or I'm afraid I'm going to make motion to the court to have such testimony stricken from the records and direct the jury to ignore all such claims that attempt to dismiss my numbers due to false claims of median bias.

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:08 am

I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:12 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Mike, I think you compare Tebow's average as a starter with every other QB's average as a starter. That's the most logical way to do it in my opinion. It makes no sense to me to use his Week 6-16 stats (or Week 6-17 stats) compared to other QBs Week 6-17 stats. I don't see the value in cherry picking stats like that. Give me the entire body of work as starters for both players and that provides the information necessary.

As far as not including bad games, I'm not sure why you would make that leap when I clearly stated that people can use his Week 17 performance. Feel free to tally that up and provide a new average. We'll then see where he ranks among NFFC QBs this season. Wow, you're kidding, right?

. So if he'd only played 5 games, we should compare that to other QBs who played 16 too? Cuz average is average?

Comparing 16 games to 10 game??? I thought I was being diligent and honest to compare 10 to 10. I'd guess that if I'd tried to compare 10 to 16 and Tebow didn't shine in that light, I'd again be accused of twisting numbers.

But seeing that might make him look better, then it's ok to blatantly use different sized samplings? Gotcha.

But I'M the "numbers twister"? Uh huh. :rolleyes: