Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:15 am

A QB with a median lower than their average should be paired with an inconsistent high upside QB. Play the match ups and when you play an inferior fantasy team start the predictable guy.

The lower median higher average combo can be a positive if used properly. Two volatile choices are more attractive to me but I'm more of a risk taker.

mattjb · Post by **mattjb** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:18 am

Trying to win an argument on stats with sandman is like trying to win in New England with Tebow...

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:19 am

Mike, I'm not twisting numbers. I posted Tebow's average as a starter this season. That's the relevant stat. I clearly stated that not all QBs started all 16 games this season. In fact, several top QBs missed time. Rather than cherry picking stats from Weeks 6-16 (or 17) and seeing who played what weeks, I think the logical approach is to use their average for the season as starters and see where everyone falls. That's hardly an outlandish statement. It's how all fantasy point rankings are compiled.

Again, if someone wants to provide a new average including Tebow's Week 17 production I'm good with that. Let me know what his average would then come to and we'll see how he ranks among NFFC QBs this season.

[ January 12, 2012, 09:19 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:24 am

Originally posted by BobSquad:
I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd. Please point me to such posts of mine?

Though I do think a good D can help a fantasy QB, simply due to getting the offense the ball back sooner. Still not sure I made that claim before.

[ January 12, 2012, 09:25 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:25 am

I have 2 very important points to make!!!

Bob - can you change your signature??? I would never hire anyone that ugly as a secretary!

Mike - I seriously didn't mean to call you out the way I did. I really do respect the fact that you are a numbers guy and take the time to do the research verses just throwing out opinions.

Wayne

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:31 am

Mike

Tom came up with 8th, I came up with 10th and I'm guessing you're going to come up with 12-13th.

I believe that YOU ARE RIGHT about the late game production, easy matchups, etc. I'm simply adding the parts that you are leaving out that complete a fair evaluation.

I believe that both sides are unreasonable, I just tend to think the anti-Tebow side doesn't realize it.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:32 am

Thanks Wayne. And I don't mind being called out. I just prefer to see evidence.

And matt, I'm all for a good numbers debate. But I'm pretty sure very few people who don't have an emotional Tebow stake would argue with my assertion to compare 10 game to 10 games. I mean, really... We're supposed to compare "entire bodies of work" (i.e. whole season) which uses different number of games per player? Where do we draw the line? A QB who played just 10 games is a fair comparison to one who played 16? How about 6 games vs. 16? Or 2 vs. 16?

Again, I'd bet pretty big that if I had been the one to suggest comparing very different sampling sizes, and doing so made Tebow look even worse, then I'd be considered twisting the numbers.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:37 am

I'm not sure why you're struggling so much with this Mike. Comparing a player's average points per game is hardly a novel concept. Arian Foster missed time this season. Should other RBs compared to him lose games simply because he didn't play all 16 games? I'm sorry but that makes no sense to me.

Again, we're not re-inventing the wheel here. When we rank players we do so in terms of points per game over the entire season. That's how all of these rankings are compiled. If you want to cherry pick stats that's fine but acknowledge up front that's what you're doing. I would prefer to use all of the stats at my disposal to paint the clearest and most accurate picture possible.

So as far as Tebow concerned, he started 10 games during the fantasy season. He ranked QB8 (or slightly lower if my math last night was off) in the NFFC as a starter in average points per game. Once again, if someone wants to tally up his Week 17 production and let me know what his average would then be I'm fine with that. We'll then re-rank Tebow among NFFC QBs and see where he falls.

If someone has that new average let me know.

[ January 12, 2012, 09:38 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:38 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd. Please point me to such posts of mine?

Though I do think a good D can help a fantasy QB, simply due to getting the offense the ball back sooner. Still not sure I made that claim before. [/QUOTE]3rd bullet point in your "check it out" link

Of course a good def "can" help but I believe that in the case of Denver it has not helped.

Fox wants to hide his QB and as long as his D keeps him within a score he is going to run on all downs. He is satisfied with 3 and outs.

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:44 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
Thanks Wayne. And I don't mind being called out. I just prefer to see evidence.

And matt, I'm all for a good numbers debate. But I'm pretty sure very few people who don't have an emotional Tebow stake would argue with my assertion to compare 10 game to 10 games. I mean, really... We're supposed to compare "entire bodies of work" (i.e. whole season) which uses different number of games per player? Where do we draw the line? A QB who played just 10 games is a fair comparison to one who played 16? How about 6 games vs. 16? Or 2 vs. 16?

Again, I'd bet pretty big that if I had been the one to suggest comparing very different sampling sizes, and doing so made Tebow look even worse, then I'd be considered twisting the numbers. I don't have a problem with 10 v 10. I've already explained why I used 6-16, and think that 10 v 10 adds value.