Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:45 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Mike, I'm not twisting numbers. I posted Tebow's average as a starter this season. That's the relevant stat. I clearly stated that not all QBs started all 16 games this season. In fact, several top QBs missed time. Rather than cherry picking stats from Weeks 6-16 (or 17) and seeing who played what weeks, I think the logical approach is to use their average for the season as starters and see where everyone falls. That's hardly an outlandish statement. It's how all fantasy point rankings are compiled.

Again, if someone wants to provide a new average including Tebow's Week 17 production I'm good with that. Let me know what his average would then come to and we'll see how he ranks among NFFC QBs this season. Hmm... So then, by that rationale Chad Henne was QB3 this year, due to averaging 27 PPG in his 3 full games?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:46 am

For what it's worth, I don't have an "emotional Tebow" stake. I just think it's curious the lengths people continue to go to in order to minimize what he's done - both in terms of fantasy and the NFL. I find that highly fascinating and that's why I continue diving into all this.

Plus, the guy just keeps doing the seemingly impossible all the time. Hard to resist.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:49 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
Hmm... So then, by that rationale Chad Henne was QB3 this year, due to averaging 27 PPG in his 3 full games? If you consider three games to be a worthy sample size for evaluation purposes knock yourself out.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:50 am

So where does Matt Flynn rank in average points per game? I realize this was in week 17 but would it be fair to compare his avergage points per game (one start) to other QB's who made many more starts? Of course not.

I also don't think using Foster is a good example considering that he has established himself has a clear proven commodity in this league. Sure, he played less games this year but was able to out produce RB's who played all their games so I don't think that comparison fits with the Tebow debate.

I'm not really too concerned where he ranks because numbers are numbers. I've always had the take that given how I seen him accumulate those numbers, I don't think that that level will be sustainable. I could very well be wrong but I think it would be hard to disagree that there are clear indicators that could be the case. We will just have to wait and see.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:52 am

Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd. Please point me to such posts of mine?

Though I do think a good D can help a fantasy QB, simply due to getting the offense the ball back sooner. Still not sure I made that claim before. [/QUOTE]3rd bullet point in your "check it out" link

Of course a good def "can" help but I believe that in the case of Denver it has not helped.

Fox wants to hide his QB and as long as his D keeps him within a score he is going to run on all downs. He is satisfied with 3 and outs. [/QUOTE]I think it is rather undeniable that Denver's defense and kicker having kept them in games has contributed to more offense opportunity.

Still waiting on my twisted median posts. :rolleyes:

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:55 am

Again, many on the pro-Tebow side have an emotional attachment ... AND ... Many on the anti-Tebow side are having an emotional reaction - not to Tebow himself, but in response to the emotions of his fans.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:56 am

Here's a good non-Tebow example - Kenny Britt.

Britt played in only three games this season but averaged 20.9 points per game before his knee injury. That figure would have made him WR1 in the NFFC this season. Now three games is obviously not a worthy sample size to say Britt was the best WR in the NFFC this season but it does provide us with a figure we can use for evaluation purposes.

If you believe what Britt did is no fluke and if he's healthy next season then it stands to reason he has elite WR1 upside. That's not to say he should be ranked WR1 going into the season (although if that's where you have him then by all means put him there), but it does provide us with an indication of the level of play he is capable of achieving. We can then look at his 2010 production when he ranked WR12 in average points per game and it's not a stretch to say what he accomplished this season before his injury is something he could reach again with better health.

For me, this is a big part of how my evaluation process unfolds. Britt has proven he can put up elite WR1 numbers (as Tebow has shown he can be a quality QB1). So if Britt's healthy next season, based on his production this season and last I can guarantee you he will be someone I will be aggressively targeting due to his upside.

[ January 12, 2012, 10:00 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 3:59 am

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
So where does Matt Flynn rank in average points per game? I would like to think common sense tells us that 10-11 games is a stronger sample size than one or three. That'd be my hope anyway.

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:01 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd. Please point me to such posts of mine?

Though I do think a good D can help a fantasy QB, simply due to getting the offense the ball back sooner. Still not sure I made that claim before. [/QUOTE]3rd bullet point in your "check it out" link

Of course a good def "can" help but I believe that in the case of Denver it has not helped.

Fox wants to hide his QB and as long as his D keeps him within a score he is going to run on all downs. He is satisfied with 3 and outs. [/QUOTE]I think it is rather undeniable that Denver's defense and kicker having kept them in games has contributed to more offense opportunity.

Still waiting on my twisted median posts. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]You ignored my defensive points. You are right that their D has helped his 4th Q scoring. Has their D hurt his 1-3Q scoring?

I already explained what I believe to your use of a lower median/higher avg as a negative when it's actually neutral and can be used as a fantasy owner as a positive or misused as a negative.

[ January 12, 2012, 10:04 AM: Message edited by: BobSquad ]

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 4:04 am

Originally posted by Old School:
[. [/qb]disagree. the low completion % was because they would not let him throw on anything but 3rd down. NO Qb in the league will be successful when doing so. I've said it for weeks. Open up the offense for him. Guess what? it worked. [/QB][/quote]

Yes, they clearly opened up the offense on Sunday. But guess what, he still completed less than 50% of his throws. That kind of shoots a hole in your argument.

I've said that he played a good game. But there needs to be a reality check with that performance. Do you really think those types of performances will be frequent if Tebow is only completing 10 passes in a game? That's why I am trying to make the point that it's the intermediate throws that will be the key to his development.