Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

bobsgym · Post by **bobsgym** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:50 am

Originally posted by Bullgod:
Ok so he played in 11 full games this regular season and here is what we have...

Here are his per game averages through these games;

150 passing yards 56 rushing yards
1.45 Touchdown's 1.09 Turnovers

So forgetting about the "eye test", the 46.5 completion % or the unbelievable comebacks or "Tebow time" if you will. This is what we have for NFFC purposes.

150 passing yards = 7.5 points
56 rushing yards= 5.6 points
1.45 TD's= 8.7 points
1.09 Turnovers= -1.09 points

This totals 20.71 points. Is this what you want/expect from your 7th-9th round QB?

Honestly I don't care about his "high floor".
In the NFFC total points are still king.
But let's talk about his "high floor".
Shouldn't injury or being benched count against any such floor? I know I take into account a players injury history before deciding where I would select him.
Ask Michael Vick owners about the injury risk to a running quarterback these days!

My question is what round are you happy with that production out of your QB? As a guy who drafts QB's early I don't know, but I'd like to hear someones opinion on it.... Unless Denver goes all in and preseason reports look good. I'm not drafting him. But I think that he'll be going literally anywhere from 4th-14th round.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 5:54 am

Based on his production to date, I think Tebow has earned a ranking in the 10-12 range among QBs going into next season. In the Classic this season, the 12th QB drafted (Eli) had an ADP of 92.87 (6th-7th round range). In the Primetime, Eli was also the 12th QB drafted and had an ADP of 102.17 (8th-9th round range).

Clearly, a lot can and will change with drafts from season to season but I think Tebow's upside will likely prevent him from falling past the 10th round in most drafts next year.

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:43 am

If I was looking ahead to QB rankings next year it might look something like this:

1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brady
4. Stafford
5. Newton
6. Vick
7. Tomo
8. Eli
9. Rivers
10. Peyton????
11. Ryan
12 Roethlisberger
13. Schaub

For me there are clearly 13 guys that I would take ahead of Tebow. The QB position becomes very dicey after the top 13 QB's.

So what I think will happen is that the top 5 will be gone by mid 3rd if not even late 2nd. Then we'll see that next tier pretty much drying up by the mid 6h. The Ryan-Schaub tier will be going in the 7th and 8th rounds. This will leave one team in a 14 team league waiting at QB and taking one of the leftover QB's.

I don't see Tebow having the upside to displace someone like Schaub from this list so for me he clearly goes after round 8. Since he looks a lot like several other options that might be available at this time my guess is that he will get drafted in the 10th to 11th round.

It's funny but in my very early projections for next year I have him at QB13 but in my rankings I have him QB19. (Due to all of the risks that have been discussed here 8,000 times.)

So in my mind yes he could be a starter but that's a lot of risk to hang your fantasy football season on.

Wayne

[ January 12, 2012, 01:45 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:49 am

Couldn't agree more Wayne!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 7:54 am

I think Tebow has more upside than Ryan, Roethlisberger and Schaub but all three are much safer picks. If I didn't get a stud QB and was picking from someone in that group today, I'd likely rank them:

1. Roethlisberger
2. Ryan
3a. Tebow
3b. Schaub

I like Schaub a lot but with the Texans trending more and more toward a RB-heavy approach I could see his production declining as we move forward, even with a healthy Andre Johnson. One thing that could lead me to take Tebow over Roethlisberger or Ryan was if I felt I had a really strong team and could afford to swing for the fences at QB. But again, if I were to draft Tebow I'd be looking to quickly get a QB2 I felt comfortable with. I think that's the biggest risk associated with Tebow as a QB1 - if you draft him there you may have to take your QB2 much earlier than you otherwise would, perhaps the very next round.

I'm not ranking Peyton for the time being so if I had to rank QBs today I'd probably go:

1. Rodgers
2. Brees
3. Brady
4. Stafford
5. Newton
6. Rivers (really think he bounces back)
7. Romo
8. Eli
9. Vick
10. Ryan
11. Roethlisberger
12. Tebow

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:11 am

My biggest fears for Tebow in regards to fantasy football next year:

1. Benching

2. His coach not letting him play (by that I mean not letting him throw the ball)

3. His receivers. Although Thomas has potential.

All of the other "stuff" really doesn't bother me. I love stats but it's hard to apply them to Tebow as his game is so different. But if I was to guess I think his biggest problem is benching. Have you seen the Broncos schedule next year?? It is brutal and they will have a hard time matching their playoff run in 2011.

Wayne

[ January 12, 2012, 02:12 PM: Message edited by: Coltsfan ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 8:13 am

I'm not a big proponent of SOS especially at this juncture. Far too many things will change before next season and then once the season begins and continues. I agree about the possibility of being benched. That's the biggest concern I see with Tebow. But that's a question we can't answer until we see what, if any, improvements he makes in the offseason or if he leads the Broncos to the Super Bowl.

If he does that, his job will probably be guaranteed for the next decade.

[ January 12, 2012, 02:14 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

TR · Post by TR » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:25 am

Originally posted by BobSquad:
quote:Originally posted by Sandman62:
quote:Originally posted by BobSquad:
I had already read all of your median posts.

You have also made several new points that I have never heard regarding QB's fantasy value: good kickers and good defenses help QB'S in FF. Huh? They may have Helped him keep his job but they are also the reason why he never throws in the first 3 q'd. Please point me to such posts of mine?

Though I do think a good D can help a fantasy QB, simply due to getting the offense the ball back sooner. Still not sure I made that claim before. [/QUOTE]3rd bullet point in your "check it out" link

Of course a good def "can" help but I believe that in the case of Denver it has not helped.

Fox wants to hide his QB and as long as his D keeps him within a score he is going to run on all downs. He is satisfied with 3 and outs. [/QUOTE]You are saying both sides are being unreasonable, only the anti tebowites don't realize it. Then what does this say about your opinions....u really think any coach is satisfied with 3 and outs? bwahahaha

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:31 am

Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
quote:Originally posted by Old School:
quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:
Disappointed in the lack of discussion here today. I actually watched the game unlike most of the haters....

Tebow had no protection.
They traded his top receiver.
For basically nothing.
Put him on a real team that can protect him and wants him to succeed and he’ll be great.
Fox is a neanderthal
They set him up to fail [/QUOTE]Wow. I watched the entire game on DirecTV, by the way.

The only logical explanation for what you're saying is that we're in the Star Trek episode where we coexist in parallel universes in which whatever you see and experience is the exact opposite of what I see and experience.

The man simply does not have the skills to play QB in the NFL. How anyone can watch him play and not see that leaves me at a further loss for words. [/QUOTE]Still lost for words? [/QUOTE]Are you trying to start something with me, Joe?

I guess you haven't read or don't care to read my many posts since that one. Since you seem incapable or unwilling to do that, I'll inform you that my posts have been more praiseworthy of Tebow and I explicitly said my stance towards him has softened. I've said that the man needs to be given credit for what he's done, and that the bottom line is that he's winning games. I said I was forced to eat some humble pie after his performance on Sunday. I've said I'm done betting against him. I've said that Matt Ryan would kill to achieve what Tebow has done. I've said he'll be legendary if he can beat the Patriots this weekend.

But you don't care to notice any of that, do you? As usual, you just hear what you want to hear and make dumb posts like the one above.

Lost for words? Maybe you should've read mine before making yourself look so foolish.

[ January 12, 2012, 05:11 PM: Message edited by: Shrink Attack ]

TR · Post by TR » Thu Jan 12, 2012 10:38 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Pat, as someone who would prefer a stud QB Tebow won't be on my target list for next season either. But as I've said before there are only X amount of stud QBs and that means some/many teams in each league will have to rely on someone else. When it comes to those other options Tebow's upside is as high as anyone you're going to choose. Tebow comes with risk but so do a lot of other QBs in that range, including several he outperformed this season. Ahhh now it all makes sense Tom....u are pulling a SNAKE type smokescreen....hyping Tebow up so more ppl will go after him, leaving less competition for the stud QBs u are targeting...slick....lol