Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:17 pm

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
I think Brady has had enough of the Tebow hype. Do ratings still count if half of the viewers stop watching at halftime? No ratings record on this one...

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:23 pm

Originally posted by Shrink Attack:
You have to give Tebow props for what he's done this season.

But I'm sorry...it would be nuts to take him as a QB1. You would be gambling your entire Fantasy season by doing it. Especially facing an opponent with Rodgers, Brees, or Brady...his potential for egg-laying is just too big. You can point to average points all you want, but he just doesn't look sustainable on a consistent basis as NFL defenses are able to adjust to him over time.

And here's the other thing: Including any garbage time points he puts up in the second half (which boosts his average) as justification for QB1 drafting is tissue-paper thin. Why? Because the Broncos wouldn't continue to start a QB all year whose production comes after the game is lost. I don't see that average holding up next year.

I am not a "Tebow-hater". As I've said, I would draft him as a QB2 because the man can put up numbers if the circumstances are right. The Steeler game is a good example of what he's capable of doing. But drafting him as my starter? Forget it.

And please...this is just my opinion. I've been wrong many times before. I crashed and burned this last Fantasy season. But that's just how I see it. Very well said, Shrink. Couldn't agree more.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:24 pm

With the schedule the Broncos face next year, they could be in store for many more games just like this one.

TR · Post by TR » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:32 pm

Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
With the schedule the Broncos face next year, they could be in store for many more games just like this one. We can only pray the networks learn something from this and don't go overboard scheduling broncos for primetime games next year...

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sat Jan 14, 2012 3:40 pm

Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
With the schedule the Broncos face next year, they could be in store for many more games just like this one. We can only pray the networks learn something from this and don't go overboard scheduling broncos for primetime games next year... [/QUOTE]Didn't think about that angle...

KenGill · Post by **KenGill** » Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:27 pm

From a guy who has been preaching patience for Tebow...

THAT - WAS - BRUTAL

No way am I drafting this guy as anything other than a QB2 next season.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 3:19 am

Originally posted by TR:
quote:Originally posted by CoMoHusker:
With the schedule the Broncos face next year, they could be in store for many more games just like this one. We can only pray the networks learn something from this and don't go overboard scheduling broncos for primetime games next year... [/QUOTE]If there's interest the networks will act accordingly. Hard to predict what the interest will be at this time.

As far as Tebow's fantasy potential, I'd compare him to Matthew Stafford in a way. Not saying he's as good of a QB as Stafford (he clearly isn't) but if someone waited this season to grab Stafford as their QB1 it was an enormously high-risk move that paid off huge. The risk was Stafford's major durability issues that had prevented him from playing an entire season. But Stafford stayed healthy and delivered in a big way.

The risk with Tebow is he does not make any improvements in the passing game. But if he does, the chances of him delivering as no worse than a strong QB1 are quite high.

I avoided the risk this season with Stafford as a QB1 and likely will avoid the risk next season with Tebow. We'll see how it pans out but even after last night it was an incredible story, one of the best I've ever seen in the NFL.

ETA - Like Stafford this season, if you can get Tebow as a QB2 next season I think you could be golden. But like Stafford this season, if you want Tebow as a QB2 I don't think you'll be able to wait too long.

[ January 15, 2012, 09:42 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:28 am

The big difference between Stafford and Tebow though is that Stafford doesn't also have the risk of "even if he doesn't get hurt, he could be benched at any time for just plain sucking".

BTW, where are all the Tebow-"hater" haters today? You know, some of the folks who called us out for "not being men enough to admit we were wrong" and declared us "ignorant" and "not knowing anything about football"? :rolleyes:

Still think his floor is high teens? Hmm... 7.1 yesterday vs. one of the worst pass defenses in NFL history. About half as many points as that two weeks ago vs. KC.

At least we can move on now and enjoy watching the real QBs the rest of the playoffs.

[ January 15, 2012, 11:32 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:33 am

Originally posted by Sandman62:
The big difference between Stafford and Tebow though is that Stafford doesn't also have the risk of "even if he doesn't get hurt, he could be benched at any time for just plain sucking". As a Stafford owner in 2010 who saw that pick go up in flames in the first half of Week 1, I'd say the threat of major injury is about the same as the threat of being benched. I'm willing to wager that if Tebow opens next season as the starter he'll produce more value in 2012 than Stafford did in 2010.

It's all about risk tolerance and where you can get them in your draft. I think waiting on QBs and drafting Stafford as a QB1 this season was an extremely risky proposition. It obviously paid off but that doesn't mean the risk wasn't there. It was. Stafford was a far better QB2 option in my opinion. Tebow's the same way. As we sit here today, he's risky to draft as a QB1 even though it could pay off nicely. But if you can get him as a QB2, like Stafford, you could end up in real good shape next season. All depends on what improvements he makes and if the Broncos can add more weapons to the passing game.

[ January 15, 2012, 10:34 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 4:39 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
ETA - Like Stafford this season, if you can get Tebow as a QB2 next season I think you could be golden. But like Stafford this season, if you want Tebow as a QB2 I don't think you'll be able to wait too long. I doubt there were many leagues where Stafford went as a QB2. His NFFC ADP was 76, which is mid-round 6. I wouldn't think many were already drafting QB2s at that point.

In our 9 leagues this year, Stafford went as:
1. Super: 6.4, QB1
2. Classic: 4.14, QB1
3. Primetime: 7.10, QB1
4. Online: 6.5, QB1
5. Online: 8.5, QB1
6. Online: 7.7, QB1
7. $150 Satellite: 8.9, QB2
8. BillyWaz DC: 5.11, QB1
9. Sandman DC: 4.2, QB1

Maybe we just have come to the point where it's time to admit that, all along, at best, Tebow was perhaps a marginal NFFC starting QB1 (QB10-14 range). But now that we've seen his TRUE floor, he's really just a high-upside QB2. If you're inclined to try to play matchups between two mediocre QBs, have a blast. But I'm pretty sure that's not usually going to be a winning formula in the NFFC.