Tim Tebow - Let's Talk

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:58 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Again, fantasy is all about production. That's it. Despite his limitations, Tebow has proven elite QB1 potential. That's a fact. There is no guesswork, no opinions are necessary. The facts are quite clear. The concern with Tebow is the risk of him being benched. The concern with Stafford was the risk of him missing a large chunk of the season due to another major injury. Different risks. Same potential fantasy result.

And if people are reading what I've written about Tebow and Stafford they'll be more inclined to get Tebow next season as a QB2. If he busts there, as Stafford did in 2010, the blow should be lessened, assuming you didn't miss out with your QB1 pick. If I have a strong QB1, then Tebow is the ideal QB2 because of his considerable upside. Just like Stafford was this season.

I was unable to get Stafford as a QB2 because he ended up going earlier than I was prepared to draft a backup. My guess is something similar happens with Tebow which is why I don't anticipate having him on my rosters next season.

But that's cool. It was a fun ride this year and he helped me cash a lot of money. So I'll always be Tebowing in his honor for that. I really think that this is way off base Tom.

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:59 am

Originally posted by Coltsfan:
But because of your incredible fear of injuries you missed out on the best QB value in the league this past year. His durability concerns were an issue with me and I didn't get him in any of my drafts because he typically went before I was willing to take my QB2. It happens. The same thing could happen with Tebow next season which is my point. People could have an incredible fear of him being benched - to coin a phrase - that they could miss out on his value as well. That's why I believe the comparison is apt. But it's all conjecture at this point until we see what improvements Tebow makes.

For what it's worth, I think Cam Newton was the best QB value of 2011, not Stafford.

[ January 15, 2012, 11:59 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:07 am

And Wayne, just so we're clear, I don't have an "incredible fear of injuries." I gambled on Stafford in 2010 and lost because I wasn't concerned about his 2009 injury. I took MJD seventh overall in my top league this year despite him coming off a major knee injury. I'm more than willing to pursue players with injury questions if I believe the value and potential are there. So it's inaccurate to say I have an "incredible fear of injuries" as if it's some cloud which hovers over my entire evaluation process.

If you want to say I should've ranked Stafford higher you're absolutely right. I should have. Then again, so should everyone else considering what his ADP was. Plenty of folks were concerned about his durability issues. I loved Stafford's talent. Always have. I didn't trust him to stay healthy. I was wrong. It happens. Fortunately, in the leagues I really care about I was able to find other QBs to get the job done for me this season.

Like ... oh ... Tim Tebow, for example.

[ January 15, 2012, 12:10 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:14 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Coltsfan:
But because of your incredible fear of injuries you missed out on the best QB value in the league this past year. His durability concerns were an issue with me and I didn't get him in any of my drafts because he typically went before I was willing to take my QB2. It happens. The same thing could happen with Tebow next season which is my point. People could have an incredible fear of him being benched - to coin a phrase - that they could miss out on his value as well. That's why I believe the comparison is apt. But it's all conjecture at this point until we see what improvements Tebow makes.

For what it's worth, I think Cam Newton was the best QB value of 2011, not Stafford. [/QUOTE]Yes Newton definitely was. I was just thinking through the QB's drafted as QB1's and should have said that.

Stafford was a lock for over 30 TD's this past year. PLUS he had a high upside backup. How many teams had a nice backup QB for fantasy? It was a dream situation. You call him a QB2 but he was only a QB2 in your eyes. Not the guys who typically draft in the NFFC.

And I don't believe you can compare the risk of Tebow getting benched to Stafford getting injured. It's apples and oranges. Plus is there a nice upside fantasy QB behind Tebow. Sorry Tom, but Tebow will have to get a lot better to produce with his current coaching staff - at least at the fantasy level. His fantasy production was MUCH better last year than this year.

Wayne

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:19 am

Originally posted by Coltsfan:

Stafford was a lock for over 30 TD's this past year. PLUS he had a high upside backup. How many teams had a nice backup QB for fantasy? It was a dream situation. You call him a QB2 but he was only a QB2 in your eyes. Not the guys who typically draft in the NFFC.Stafford was QB11 in both the Classic and Primetime this season. You're right, he wasn't a QB2. He was more of a lower-end QB1 with upside.

Lower-end QB1 with upside. QB11 ranking. Why does that all sound so familiar? Hmmm ...

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:22 am

I should also clarify that the primary reason why I referred to Stafford as a QB2 was because I didn't want to wait on QBs this season so I was typically drafting my starter much earlier than where Stafford was going. So if I was going to get Stafford, it would've been as a QB2 and he was going much earlier than I wanted to address that spot on my roster.

In most of my drafts, when other people were taking Stafford I was going after Jimmy Graham. I can live with that.

[ January 15, 2012, 12:23 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Coltsfan · Post by **Coltsfan** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:25 am

Tom,

If I had a few extra hours today I would love to go back through your posts and quote you on how many times you have said that so and so "has to prove he can stay healthy" and it's always in the context you won't take them due to injury risk. That's understandable if the haven't recovered or have an ongoing problem but many times that's not the case.

Where do you take these guys next year?

Kenny Britt
Jamal Charles
Matt Forte
Marques Colston

And it's also incorrect to say that everyone should have had Stafford higher. I could have him ranked as the 30th best player but if I can get him at 70 then I'm going to wait and try to get him later. Sometimes I might miss but other times I get a great value. The bottom line was that Stafford's injury was not degenerative or something likely to reoccur. You knew what he could do but still had him as a QB2 because you were afraid to take him.

Wayne

Shrink Attack · Post by **Shrink Attack** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:26 am

I hear what Tom, Wayne, and Mike are all saying about Tebow and his potential. I understand the injury issues as well. In fact, we can be cerebral all day about it if we want.

But comparing Tebow to Stafford just doesn't pass the sniff test. It's a comparison between a QB with elite skills to one who tends to get his fantasy points by hook or by crook. Stafford is a foundation QB for both his own team and a winning Fantasy squad. This is only my opinion, but I don't view Tebow as either one of those at this point.

Tom is right about Tebow's production this year. But like most fantasy players, that doesn't guarantee anything for next year. I don't think he's proven anything other than his potential to boom or bust, each week, in an unpredictable fashion. It's up to each of us to review Tebow's production, how it came about, and whether we think it's repeatable next year.

Isn't that why we call them projections?

Don't get me wrong. Tebow is very draftable and I'd love to have him as my QB2. And I freely admit that I've been wrong about him before. But in my book, he's simply not in the same QB tier as Stafford. It's a comparison that just doesn't ring true for me.

CoMoHusker · Post by **CoMoHusker** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:27 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Coltsfan:

Stafford was a lock for over 30 TD's this past year. PLUS he had a high upside backup. How many teams had a nice backup QB for fantasy? It was a dream situation. You call him a QB2 but he was only a QB2 in your eyes. Not the guys who typically draft in the NFFC.Stafford was QB11 in both the Classic and Primetime this season. You're right, he wasn't a QB2. He was more of a lower-end QB1 with upside.

Lower-end QB1 with upside. QB11 ranking. Why does that all sound so familiar? Hmmm ... [/QUOTE]It won't since there's no way in hell that Tebow puts up 5000 yards and 41 TDs next year. At his current pace, it would take Tebow about three years to accumulate those passing totals

If your hoping to land Tebow next year in the same spot as Stafford may have fell this year, great, just don't expect anywhere near the production.

Sandman62 · Post by **Sandman62** » Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:30 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
And if people are reading what I've written about Tebow and Stafford they'll be more inclined to get Tebow next season as a QB2. If he busts there, as Stafford did in 2010, the blow should be lessened, assuming you didn't miss out with your QB1 pick. If I have a strong QB1, then Tebow is the ideal QB2 because of his considerable upside. Just like Stafford was this season.First off, Stafford didn't "bust" in 2010; he was injured. BIG difference, as one is likely much more predictable.

Not a big surprise that you couldn't land what most people considered a QB1 with huge upside as a QB2. However, that alone surely doesn't make Stafford a QB2. :rolleyes:

I provided 8 of my 9 leagues where Stafford went as a QB1. You have access to all NFFC draft data. Please tell us what percent of leagues he was drafted as someone's QB2 this year?