Skill/Luck......continuing on for a while?

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:25 am

I posted this on Bob Squad's original "skill/luck" debate also, but that thread has unfortunately turned into a lot of people having "one sentence" conversations (I'm guilty of that also". I just started this thread to leave out the arguing, personal battles, and where people can just give their "theory" about the whole thing.

I give Bob Squad FULL credit for starting all this.

I think the bottom line is that we all want to think we are "skilled".

When we lose to a team we feel we should of beat (I'm strictly talking H2H here), we tend to say it is "luck". Luck is generally the EASY way to say "that person is not as good as I (think I) am". It eases the pain of realizing we may not be as good as we say we think we are.

It especially stings when we have a high score and lose 154 - 160, while the rest of the league scored less than our 154.

What we tend to often forget about "luck" is that when we win a game 94 - 88, and the rest of the league scored more than our 94, we say "well we were a better team anyway". Our egos don't want to realize that we just had "good luck", because that means maybe we aren't as "skilled" as we really think we are (tough for our egos to handle!)

I agree 100% that we have ZERO control over who we play each week. But based on the info of the top 15 lifetime standings leaders (posted below), I think OVER TIME, that the data will show that the teams who SCORE THE MOST POINTS will end up with the best H2H records........

Here are the current lifetime standings NFFC Classic leaders (through week 8 of the 2009 season). It is a total of 73 games played, and next to each person's record, I put there overall record for each individual year since 2004. Since there were 13 games each season (and 8 thus far) if the team had a winning season they get a win, and a losing season counts as a loss ( a total of 5 seasons and through week 8 of this season). Only one team in the top 15 (Rick Hart) is 4-4 (a tie) this far this season. Here are the results.....

1. Billy Wasosky (52-21) (6-0)
2. Derek Anderson/Kyle Pope (40-33) (4-2)
3. Glenn Schroter (44-29) (5-1)
4. Mark Srebro (40-33) (4-2)
5. Rick Hart (37-36) (4-1-1)
6. Carlos Perez (41-32) (4-2)
7. Jeff Clampitt (47-26) (5-1)
8. Michael Edelman (35-38) (3-3)
9. James Mack (48-25) (6-0)
10. Phillip McDonald (41-32) (3-3)
11. Ken Magner (45-28) (5-1)
12. Eric Lindquist (32-41) (2-4)
13. Alex Kaganovsky (45-28) (5-1)
14. Don Jagoda (41-32) (4-2)
15. Richard Duewel (36-37) (3-3)

- 12 of the top 15 (80%) lifetime scoring leaders have won more GAMES than they lost in the 73 total games played.

- 11 of the top 15 (73%) lifetime scoring leaders have had more winning SEASONS than losing seasons in the 5 completed and 1 partial season.

Of course since weeks 14-16 ARE counted in the lifetime point standings, this data DOES NOT include 15 games that have a bearing on the total points, but obviously cannot be counted in that record.

I am going to try and compare this data later.

Are there going to be exceptions....ABSOLUTELY! Exceptions/luck happens around us EVERY day. Is it 100% guaranteed that I will make it to work safely EVERY day.....NO. The percentage is high, but NOTHING is 100%. Everyone knows that H2H is less reliable than points scored in determining the best teams, but as a game operator, H2H IS needed. Lance's post summed it up well, as he said each week you go to battle against one other team.

I also believe the NFFC does the BEST job of any contest out there, in allowing the teams who score well MULTIPLE opportunities to win $$$ over "blindly" just giving it to the H2H team.

As for the 3 week playoff, you simply need to get "hot" at the right time. I'm OK with that. Personally, my teams have not fared well in that 3 week span over the last 5 years, but I know I have ZERO chance of winning the 100K if I don't make it to the championship round. Goal one EVERY year is to get there. The more I get there, the more opportunities I have to "get hot" at the right time, and bring home some cash!

[ November 07, 2009, 12:31 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:29 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
I think OVER TIME, that the data will show that the teams who SCORE THE MOST POINTS will end up with the best H2H records.
hell, it better!!! if it didn't skill would be at 0%

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:42 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Here are the current lifetime standings NFFC Classic leaders (through week 8 of the 2009 season). It is a total of 73 games played, and next to each person's record, I put there overall record for each individual year since 2004. Since there were 13 games each season (and 8 thus far) if the team had a winning season they get a win, and a losing season counts as a loss ( a total of 5 seasons and through week 8 of this season). Only one team in the top 15 (Rick Hart) is 4-4 (a tie) this far this season. Here are the results.....

1. Billy Wasosky (52-21) (6-0)
2. Derek Anderson/Kyle Pope (40-33) (4-2)
3. Glenn Schroter (44-29) (5-1)
4. Mark Srebro (40-33) (4-2)
5. Rick Hart (37-36) (4-1-1)
6. Carlos Perez (41-32) (4-2)
7. Jeff Clampitt (47-26) (5-1)
8. Michael Edelman (35-38) (3-3)
9. James Mack (48-25) (6-0)
10. Phillip McDonald (41-32) (3-3)
11. Ken Magner (45-28) (5-1)
12. Eric Lindquist (32-41) (2-4)
13. Alex Kaganovsky (45-28) (5-1)
14. Don Jagoda (41-32) (4-2)
15. Richard Duewel (36-37) (3-3)
okay, let's get to the punchline...so we have 15 owners that each have played 5 seasons. that's a total of 75 chances for the top 15 LIFETIME owners to win the 100K or even 2nd place overall. how many of those 75 chances were they successful at 1st place overall? how about 2nd place overall?

bobsgym13 · Post by **bobsgym13** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:47 am

The Top 6 obviously have talent. #7, uhhh, not so much.

Bob

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 6:55 am

it would be nice if this data was available at our fingertips. how about the # of times the top 15 owners placed in the Top 10 overall at season's end?

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:36 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
it would be nice if this data was available at our fingertips. how about the # of times the top 15 owners placed in the Top 10 overall at season's end? Well obviously when you "reset the data after 13 weeks", the percentage it is not going to be in favor of rewarding the best teams over the FULL 16 weeks.

Again, my FIRST goal each season is to get into the championship round each year, because as long as I am in the top 2 in my league, I have MADE A PROFIT. Then honestly, I just hope I can "get hot". What else can you honestly do?

Here is the data you requested.....

If I calculated correctly, there have been EIGHT times of 75 (11% of the time) that the top 15 lifetime scoring leaders through 5 seasons have finished in the top 10.

I think a better way to look at it is that out of these 15 people, they have MADE the championship round, 21 times out of 75 total opportunities (28%).

So 8 "top 10 appearances" out of 28 times, is also approximately 28%.

You (or anyone else) can monkey with those numbers any way you wish. I agree 100% that a "3 week sprint" is probably not the best way to reward the "best" teams. However, it simply is the "industry standard" and keep more teams involved (which is the goal for a game operator).

That all being said, I still think the NFFC is more "point oriented" than any other high stakes game out there.

We can talk about this "till the cows come home", but until someone comes up with a good way to change the system, it is all pretty much a moot point.

The big question is how to do it???

botherk · Post by **botherk** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:43 am

How do know if those top 15 have been skillful, maybe others with more skills are down farther, but unlucky?

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:50 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
How do know if those top 15 have been skillful, maybe others with more skills are down farther, but unlucky?

Very true, and there are also people who have played less than 5 years who have good skills too!

Obviously a "total points/rotisserie style" wouldn't fly in football. That simply leads to a larger percentage of "quitters", as is evident in baseball!

botherk · Post by **botherk** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 7:58 am

Skill vs. luck, the argument that will surpass cockroaches in time.

[ November 07, 2009, 01:59 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:05 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Skill vs. luck, the argument that will surpass cockroaches in time.
Too true Doughboys! Every game has a luck element......if you don't like the rules you shouldn't play. It's really that simple.

[ November 07, 2009, 02:07 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]