Skill/Luck......continuing on for a while?

botherk · Post by **botherk** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 8:16 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:
Skill vs. luck, the argument that will surpass cockroaches in time.
Too true Doughboys! Every game has a luck element......if you don't like the rules you shouldn't play. It's really that simple. [/QUOTE]I think I said that to a guy in 4th grade playing dodgeball.
It's still true today!

lumpy463 · Post by **lumpy463** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:07 pm

Three top ten finishes

Derek "Lucky" Anderson

BONGIZMO · Post by **BONGIZMO** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 3:14 pm

So Derek, if you or any of the other five possibles for three time league champions in the NFFC achieve this feat, it most certainly had nothing to do with skill.

Maybe there is something to the phrase I'd rather be lucky than good LOL. Hell I'll take being both. In fact screw all of that, taking home net money no matter how it happens for doing something we enjoy is the icing on the cake.

Hoping I have the skill to make the 'chase' and then all the luck in the world to get hot and bring home a title.

[ November 07, 2009, 09:20 PM: Message edited by: BONGIZMO ]

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Nov 07, 2009 4:20 pm

Originally posted by Bob Squad:
The Top 6 obviously have talent. #7, uhhh, not so much.

Bob I was thinking the same thing!

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:09 am

Originally posted by Derek Anderson:
Three top ten finishes

Derek "Lucky" Anderson Derek,

In the data, you only had two, as it just counts the Classic (not the Primetime). Primetime has completed only one season and obviously not enough data in that contest to see any trends. Maybe not enough in the Classic either, but 5 years is better than 1 (and all we have to work with).

You're still one of the best!

Unless it is proved there isn't much skill to this game, and then you are just lucky! :rolleyes:

[ November 08, 2009, 07:12 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:22 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
If I calculated correctly, there have been EIGHT times of 75 (11% of the time) that the top 15 lifetime scoring leaders through 5 seasons have finished in the top 10.
thanks for doing the legwork on this billy.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:36 am

Originally posted by BONGIZMO:
So Derek, if you or any of the other five possibles for three time league champions in the NFFC achieve this feat, it most certainly had nothing to do with skill.

Maybe there is something to the phrase I'd rather be lucky than good LOL. Hell I'll take being both. In fact screw all of that, taking home net money no matter how it happens for doing something we enjoy is the icing on the cake.

Hoping I have the skill to make the 'chase' and then all the luck in the world to get hot and bring home a title.

Yep.....make some $$!

That's the goal for me, because it allow me to "keep playing". I am a teacher (as is my wife), with 3 kids, so you can pretty much figure out that I don't have a ton of $$.

I think also something to keep in mind is that the NFFC (or any other high stakes game) is providing a SERVICE. They provide a draft, sometimes food, sometimes pretty women to look at

, an opportunity to meet old (and new)friends, and entertainment through 16 weeks of the football season.

The price of all that.......$1,400 (for the Classic, not counting travel expenses).

So if I throw that kind of $$ down, and finish in the top 2 in my league, I get a check for $2,500. All that was then FREE, and I made some extra cash on top of that.

Bottom line is I am TOTALLY content even making just a little $$$ each year from fantasy football even if the playoff system is a "3 week sprint". Again, if I keep getting in the championship round, I am making $$$ regardless, and then I have an opportunity at a lottery with around 60 teams.

Not sure about you guys, if someone offers me all the entertainment above, along with a better than 50/50 chance to win $2,500 from my 14 team league (or more) AND give me a lottery ticket for a 1 in say 60 chance at 100K, a 1 in 30 chance at 15K or more, and a 1 in 7.5 chance at a FREE entry next year

I'll keep playing EVERY year!

[ November 08, 2009, 07:40 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 1:46 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
and then I have an opportunity at a lottery with around 60 teams.
interesting choice of words. to be honest, even i'm a little bit surprised YOU refer to the largest NFFC prizes being awarded in a "lottery" type fashion.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:01 am

Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
and then I have an opportunity at a lottery with around 60 teams.
interesting choice of words. to be honest, even i'm a little bit surprised YOU refer to the largest NFFC prizes being awarded in a "lottery" type fashion. [/QUOTE]Mark,

I've always said from day one that the "3 week sprint" is everyone starting virtually from ZERO, and it is all about who gets hot. I agree 100% there is MUCHO luck involved there. It is like a lottery.....until someone comes up with a BETTER idea to minimize that luck, I'm cool with that.

However, you can't even have a shot at it if you don't qualify for the championship round AND....

I fully realize that it is the best way to keep more owners involved, which for the game operator is the ultimate goal.

As I said above, if I can keep winning money from my individual league, and have a shot at this, eventually (I hope!

) I will get "lucky" enough to win it all!

Of course there is luck to win it all, Mark. I just don't think you can be "consistently lucky" to QUALIFY for the championship round year in and year out.

renman · Post by **renman** » Sun Nov 08, 2009 2:15 am

Keep in mind, more often than not in REAL SPORTS the overall champion is the team that "got hot" during the post season when the stakes are highest.

Sure, the Yankees won (some argue purchased) the World Series this year after being the number one seed after the regular season. However, how many "real sports" champions have been crowned over the last 5-10 years that were NOT the #1 regular season seed? I do not know the answer, but I know it happens.

Why?

Because the post season is a "new season" and often quite separate from the regular season.