Submitting Lineups

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 2:19 pm

As someone who has the 11th pick in his main league, I would do a cartwheel if Lewis fell to me there.

I can understand why people are shying away from Lewis, but I think if he does fall that far, it's too far given his talent. Consider this: Most accounts expect the trial to last 2 weeks at most. So that's 2 games Lewis could miss. I say "could" because I personally don't think he's going to miss any time at all.

The Ravens were 10-6 last season and they needed a 2,000-yard season from Lewis to get there. Depending on how the season is going for them when Lewis' trial starts, I could see Billick maybe trying to see if his team can win a game without him. But given how pathetic their offense will likely be minus Lewis (it isn't very good with him), I don't think it will take Billick long to realize he needs his best offensive player and that trying to win without him is going to put a serious hurt on the Ravens' playoff aspirations.

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Lewis playing all 16 games this season barring injury. I think Billick will do everything he can to make sure Lewis can play each week, no matter what accomodations need to be made during the trial.

Is Lewis a risky pick? He sure is, but how far down will you lower him? And if you drop him down, take a good look at the RBs he's bound to be surrounded by. Edge hasn't played a full season since his knee injury; Faulk is obviously an injury risk; guys like Henry and Davis will be losing carries. It seems to me there's some risk associated with quite a few of the RBs after the top six and a few of them could miss some games as well this season. So how do they really differ from Lewis in that regard? I don't believe they do, which is why I would definitely grab him if he slid to the lower end of the first round or into the second round.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 2:59 pm

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Is Lewis a risky pick? He sure is, but how far down will you lower him? And if you drop him down, take a good look at the RBs he's bound to be surrounded by. Edge hasn't played a full season since his knee injury; Faulk is obviously an injury risk; guys like Henry and Davis will be losing carries. It seems to me there's some risk associated with quite a few of the RBs after the top six and a few of them could miss some games as well this season. What happened to all that RB depth you were talking about earlier?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:03 pm

I think there is more depth this year than in a very long time. I think there's a very good chance you'll find some quality RBs in Rounds 4-6 which has been almost unheard of. The current ADPs for guys like Buckhalter and Dunn right now, for example, are making them into HUGE bargain picks. That has been my point. You're going to find more value in the middle rounds at RB than you've been able to find in a long time. That doesn't mean there are a large number of sure-fire "stud" RB picks. There aren't. I think there are only 7 (including Lewis) that I really like as my RB1. I'd be OK with Edge and Taylor, but I don't like them as much as Priest, LT2, Green, Portis, McAllister, Alexander and Lewis.

[ August 16, 2004, 09:04 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:07 pm

I think I can summarize what you are saying...there are more RBBC teams...seemingly giving you more RB's to choose from.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:08 pm

Nope, there are more solid RBs who will be solid fantasy contributors who are all adding up to make RB a deeper position than it has been in many years. Sorry Gordon.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:08 pm

On average, what round do you think S.Jackson will go in NFFC drafts? Be honest. Thanks.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:10 pm

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Nope, there are more solid RBs who will be solid fantasy contributors who are all adding up to make RB a deeper position than it has been in many years. Sorry Gordon. With more solid RB's (as you say), is it your contention that overall NFL rushing yards will increase by more than 10% from last year?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:13 pm

Why would I be dishonest?

I think he'll probably go in the fifth round, maybe he'll fall to the sixth. But I would expect his NFFC ADP to be in the fifth round.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:16 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
With more solid RB's (as you say), is it your contention that overall NFL rushing yards will increase by more than 10% from last year? Without doing any historical studying to see what type of increases or decreases we've seen in the past, I wouldn't be surprised to see rushing yardage go up. By what percentage, I can't say. But there are several teams (Washington, New England, Cleveland, Detroit and Chicago come to mind) that should have stronger rushing attacks this season. I think you'll see more teams trying to emphasize the run more and many teams be more efficient in that aspect of the offense than they were a year ago.

[ August 16, 2004, 09:16 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:54 pm

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Nope, there are more solid RBs who will be solid fantasy contributors who are all adding up to make RB a deeper position than it has been in many years. Sorry Gordon. That's okay we disagree. I have a feeling that some of these "solid" RBs are really pretenders.