***ALERT: Random Draft Slot Facts

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:03 pm

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
Draft better than the guy who took Holmes! May sound silly, but it is true! i consider your point covered under #1

renman · Post by **renman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:28 pm

if holmes had the same high ankle sprain that duce mcallister had the stats would be different.

it has taken holmes having an EPIC 2 weeks to seriously support this logic...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:37 pm

Originally posted by renman:
if holmes had the same high ankle sprain that duce mcallister had the stats would be different.

it has taken holmes having an EPIC 2 weeks to seriously support this logic... there is a draft slot bias. there are two ways to negate the bias:
1. lower-end teams must draft and perform FA pickups almost flawlessly. Can it be done....yes. but the deck is stacked against you.
2. Hope holmes (or whoever the consensus #1 pick is) gets hurt This is the one your argument falls into

oh ya, i know there are a couple lower-end owners who drafted culpepper. should we not include their results because CPep had a couple EPIC weeks?

[ November 02, 2004, 09:37 PM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

dgamblnman · Post by **dgamblnman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:51 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
does your arguement hold true if Holmes goes down???? Please answer... having holmes go down is one of the only realistic ways a lot of the lower-end teams stand a fair chance. get it yet? there is a draft slot bias. there are two ways to negate the bias:
1. lower-end teams must draft and perform FA pickups almost flawlessly. Can it be done....yes. but the deck is stacked against you.
2. Hope holmes (or whoever the consensus #1 pick is) gets hurt

if you didn't realize it, most of your arguments are supporting my claims. you've almost come full circle now. getting close. [/QUOTE]EXACTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It has nothing to do with draft slots, is has to do with injury. Thanx for proving that point......

GG, you keep saying youwould win if you get your draft slot, but you have proven that it has nothing to do with draft slot, but who stays healthy. So put this damn arguement to bed and admit that selecting your slot has nothing to do with winning, but hoping you player stays healthy. Welcome to my side.

dgamblnman · Post by **dgamblnman** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:52 pm

Originally posted by renman:
if holmes had the same high ankle sprain that duce mcallister had the stats would be different.

it has taken holmes having an EPIC 2 weeks to seriously support this logic... GG can't comprehend this, he is blind to facts.....

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:56 pm

Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
It has nothing to do with draft slots, is has to do with injury. Thanx for proving that point......

GG, you keep saying youwould win if you get your draft slot, but you have proven that it has nothing to do with draft slot, but who stays healthy. So put this damn arguement to bed and admit that selecting your slot has nothing to do with winning, but hoping you player stays healthy. Welcome to my side. you still don't see it, but like i said, i think you're close. i'll keep trying. owners with priest (or any consensus #1) have an advantage over every other owner. you can't say that about any other player, except MAYBE culpepper, but he is even questionable. you'll see. open your mind. thanks.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 2:36 am

I don't know how this arguement will eventually pan out but it does make me curious about one thing. Before we all received our random draft slots, which one were you hoping to get? I know everyone had some preference. Who's honest enough to fess up.
I was hoping for #4, didn't want anything past #8.
Based on the 4.3 million mock drafts I did, there seemed to be a big advantage for the 1st 6 picks.
Again, I'm just talking about what we were hoping for. No threads, no debates, just our own pre-draft thoughts. Anyone care to comment?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 2:55 am

One thing I would add to this is that one of the reasons we upped the scoring for TD passes to 6 points was to try to increase the importance of QBs and possibly stem the RB frenzy that grips hold of nearly every fantasy football draft. But what happened? In most of the drafts I saw (going strictly off the top of my head here) the RBs still went fast and furious. Given how well Culpepper and Manning in particular have played, would the scoring have changed if ... say ... one of the teams with a lower draft position grabbed a stud QB instead of a second-tier RB or even a supposed stud WR?

I think the more pertinent question with all of this isn't where you're drafting, but once again who you're drafting. I'm as staunch a supporter of the RB-RB theory as you're going to find, but I wrote a column for our newsletter and online last week saying one thing I was going to do no matter what in my main league was grab a strong QB1 even if I had to reach a round or two to do so (I ended up taking Favre in the fourth). With 6 points for TD passes in the NFFC, that should place an even greater emphasis on the importance of having a strong QB1 option.

My point here is that what I really think needs to be addressed is how owners draft and not so much where they are drafting from. If you have a lower draft spot, I think players like Culpepper and Manning are proving they deserve some real consideration there -- especially in a league like ours which rewards 6 points per TD pass. Getting a stud QB over a second-tier RB who may be hit or miss could prove to be a huge difference maker as the season goes along.

renman · Post by **renman** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 3:32 am

tom,

i completely agree that you guys have created a scoring system that makes QB's more valuable and it made me go away from my RB,RB,RB strategy when peyton manning fell to me and forced me to make a decision. i chose to take manning knowing it would leave me with only 2 starting RB's. i drafted reno mahe, musa smith, ladell betts in hopes they might get starting RB' jobs but never got lucky.

i think every single season you can find a different place in the draft that seems to be the best position to draft from. what about the year everyone took marshal faulk with first pick and he did nothing? we often look at result and take those results too seriously. there is the intangible thing called "the bounce of the ball" and i am sure these nffc leagues will be won by owners in all kinds of draft positions.

i do think we could come up with some simple process for owners to try to PICK where they draft from just to give owners the "perception" they are in control of their strategy and maybe some piece of mind that can lead to more entries...

dgamblnman · Post by **dgamblnman** » Wed Nov 03, 2004 4:32 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Vega$ Gambler$:
It has nothing to do with draft slots, is has to do with injury. Thanx for proving that point......

GG, you keep saying youwould win if you get your draft slot, but you have proven that it has nothing to do with draft slot, but who stays healthy. So put this damn arguement to bed and admit that selecting your slot has nothing to do with winning, but hoping you player stays healthy. Welcome to my side. you still don't see it, but like i said, i think you're close. i'll keep trying. owners with priest (or any consensus #1) have an advantage over every other owner. you can't say that about any other player, except MAYBE culpepper, but he is even questionable. you'll see. open your mind. thanks. [/QUOTE]You fail to realize, it's not hoping Priest gets hurts, it's if your player stays healthy. Don't you think if all the players drafted in the first 2 rounds stay healthy, the "outcome" of your research would be different??????????????

But I guess GG knows EXACTLY who will get hurt every year, he is so darned good. Wake up Gordon. Nobody can predict injuries, you are no where that good.

Like I said earlier, do the result with avergae points per game instad of total points to get truer results. This would eliminate Byes and injury factors.