Going all-in: Taking a RB on the river

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 7:10 am

Here's a message I posted on another board, just for some fun:

Let's assume for the moment that one of these guys gets a break, his committee mates get hurt, traded or just plain screw up: Tatum Bell, Onterrio Smith, Jones, Jones, Jones, Brown, Suggs, W. Green...probably a few more. This happens in week 1 and one of these guys ends up ranked as RB13. Is that too farfetched?, For just 1 of these guys, I don't think so. Let's also assume you're plaing in a multi-league very big money championship.

Being risk averse, I'm not going to touch these guys until I have 2 solid RBs. Did I just lose the championship to the guy who went all-in and pulled a RB on the river?

Okay, it's draft time and he has a mid-round draft and takes one of the consistent, low risk RB1's. He then takes 2 top WRs and a top QB in rounds 2,3,4 (in optimal order). He then comes back in round 5, closes his eyes, and chooses the right one of those guys. He winds up with RB6, RB13, QB2, WR3 and WR8. I'd say he also winds up with a championship.

So the shark does the right thing and has a solid team but loses to this guy. Bad luck or is that what it takes when you're playing against hundreds of other good owners.?

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:15 am

Whether people want to believe it or not, fantasy football is A LOT of luck no matter how prepared you are!

Sure there are hunches that people have to "help" them to a championship, but the bottom line is your team needs to stay virtually injury-free (which none of us have control of), you need a few breaks, and you have to have a favorable schedule with head to head opponents (again, out of our control!)

2 years ago, I drafted the following players in an individual defensive league (Here are the first 6 rounds- I had the 8th pick in a 12 teamer)

1- RB Priest Holmes (best RB)
2- WR Marvin Harrison (best WR)
3- QB Aaron Brooks
4- WR KeyShawn Johnson
5- LB Zach Thomas
6- RB Clinton Portis (rookie season)

Later I drafted Simeon Rice and Adam Archuleta (2 defensive studs that year) and made ZERO trades thorughout the year.

I averaged about 134 ppg, which was 13 ppg better than the next best team. What was my record you ask;

8-6!

4 of my 6 losses, I was the 2ND highest scoring team of the week. It took a Marty Booker TD late against Miami on Monday night to beat another team by one point for me to get in the playoffs (Booker was not on my team)

I eventually went on to win the league, and the $2,000 payoff was nice, but if Booker doesn't catch that TD, I don't get in the playoffs, and I get NOTHING!

It just goes to show, that the best team DOES NOT always win, and that luck, schedule, injuries, etc (things we have NO control over) often dictate how we do rather than our "skill".

Sorry so longwinded!

[ July 26, 2004, 02:18 PM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Mon Jul 26, 2004 8:29 am

Same thing happened to me last year but with a different ending. I drafted Favre, Hasselbeck, Alexander, H. Ward, and James in a 12 team league. Picked up D. Davis and traded for Heap in Week 7. Was high point total in the league with a 7-6 record and only got in the playoffs because of point total. 5 of the 6 losses I was 2nd high point total for the week and got mowed in Week 14 playoff game by high point total. 8th point total team got a bye that week with a 10-3 record. Injuries and playing conditions at playoff time are key. The reason I got into this championship is because the first 13 weeks don't get thrown out come playoff time.

raiders04 · Post by **raiders04** » Tue Aug 17, 2004 8:20 pm

question guys im in a 2 player keepier league that has 12 teams with 15 player roster. im strongly thinking of keeping holt and i also have T henery should i keep him and hope to get a good draft spot or just keep holt and take a chancer on landing a stud wr or possible dominack davis

johnbriganti · Post by **johnbriganti** » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:07 am

aaron,

I'd keep Holt and use your #1 pick to replace the RB. Compare Holt and Henry last season - who had the higher number of fantasy points? - Holt.
Now think about this year. Has anything changed in St Louis that would lead you to believe Holt (#1 Receiver) will not duplicate or better 2003 numbers? I do see anything.
Has anything changed in Buffalo? Yes - there's another RB in the mix, and despite his talent being the same (Henry) it stands to reason his opportunities will be fewer.

Keep Holt.

John

Jersey Dawg · Post by **Jersey Dawg** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 6:15 am

Fantasy football is also VERY much about managing the free agency pool and knowing who to get and how soon. Last year Boldin, McCardell and Santana Moss were all free agents. I nearly laughed out loud when after a big week one someone in my league bid over 25% of his free agency bucks on Boldin. I guess he was right. Luckily for me I ended up taking McCardell and Moss a few weeks later. In another example, I took Tony Hollings off of free agency instead of Dominic Davis becaues all the "sites" I belong to were saying Hollings would be the man. For another buck I could have had both....

Yes, luck is a factor, injuries are another, but one of the real keys is roster managment.

Pete

johnbriganti · Post by **johnbriganti** » Fri Aug 20, 2004 8:43 am

Jersey - you are correct without a doubt.
Roster management, especially in the NFFC league is going to be especially challenging - and especially for those owners who get hit by the injury bug.

This will be the first league where I'll have to "blind bid" for free agents so my experience is limited to thought and preparation I have done so far regarding the number of players I will draft at each position.

If I do that correctly AND I GET LUCKY I'll be able to roll the dice and bid high for someone I covet with the expectation/hope that I won't have to use the free agent wire again, or often. Any comments? Anyone?

John