If Your Draft Was Held Today Where Would Culpepper Go?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:27 am

I'm as strong a proponent of taking a RB in the first round as anyone you're going to find, but what Daunte Culpepper is doing right now is unbelievable. Consider that he's not only on pace to throw for 58 TDs and more than 5,600 passing yards (think about those numbers for a second) but he has thrown 5 TDs in a game three times already and he has had more than 340 yards in every game but one.

And did I mention he has the Vikings' only rushing TD of the year as well?

Although RBs typically are the consensus No. 1 pick in most drafts, it wasn't that long ago when Kurt Warner was sitting atop many draft lists and rankings. Is Culpepper worthy of similar recognition?

What do you guys think?

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 8:53 am

Without adjusting for bye weeks, top VBD scores based on the NFFC roster are:

Culpepper 109
Manning 47

Martin 76
Barber 67
LT 65
Priest 60
Shaun Alexander 60
Tom Jones 51
Chris Brown 51
Edge 50

Javon Walker 67
Andre Johnson 51
Randy 50
T.O. 49
Ward 44
Holt 44

So yes, Culpepper would be the #1 pick.

By the way, if you don't understand what the VBD numbers mean, well...let's just say... DEAD MONEY.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:37 am

So I guess the question Tom is asking is this: If a new NFFC season were starting today, where would Culpepper go in an open draft? Would he be the first overall pick??? Would he be Top 5? Top 10? It's being debated on a lot of other fantasy football message boards and I find it very interesting now since the NFFC rewards QBs with six points per passing TD. If he's going to be ranked high in any ff contest, it's going to be ours.

Okay, where does he land in your projections for 2005 as of right now? I want to know.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 9:40 am

he would be drafted in the top 5 in every NFFC draft.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:05 am

I don't disagree with you, but that's an incredible admission when you consider how the RB-RB debate has raged on over the last couple of years. In a 14-team league where owners were worried about getting a quality second RB in the draft (and even proposing a 1-RB, 2-Flex rule), you're saying that Culpepper would DEFINITELY go in the Top 5 and maybe even first overall, leaving teams to scramble under the current rules for two running backs later. My, how this guy has changed the landscape.

Culpepper went No. 1 in one of the mid-season leagues, but that also was based on the fact that his bye week was over. But I agree, I think he would go in the Top 5 in most leagues. Now we'll have to see if he can keep this pace up and if he warrants a Top 5 pick next year.

It's interesting and a fun discussion. Man, and to think he still has two games against the dreadful Packers' defense. 60 TD passes isn't out of the question!

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:09 am

In a league like ours with 6 points for TD passes, I think you have to give strong consideration to taking Culpepper No. 1 -- especially if the depth at RB is as strong as it was entering this season. Would I do it? I'm a die-hard RB guy and this season has made me even more convinced that if you don't have strong RB depth you're in big trouble. But that being said, when you look at what Culpepper is doing and see that there's nothing to suggest his performance is going to suffer a major decline anytime soon, it's very tempting to take him if you had that first overall pick.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:31 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
I don't disagree with you, but that's an incredible admission when you consider how the RB-RB debate has raged on over the last couple of years. In a 14-team league where owners were worried about getting a quality second RB in the draft (and even proposing a 1-RB, 2-Flex rule), you're saying that Culpepper would DEFINITELY go in the Top 5 and maybe even first overall, leaving teams to scramble under the current rules for two running backs later. the only admission i made is that he would go top 5 in all leagues. i didn't say i'd take him there.

typically the sheep follow the "hot" guy. culpepper is no different.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:48 am

History would tell us that this pace is not sustainable. We do know, however, that Culpepper likes to pad his stats by throwing from the 6 inch line. He's clearly the number 1 QB, but we knew that before we drafted for this year.

He still can't be taken before the stud RBs. We know that by pick 28 you get either an average, consistent RB like a Travis Henry or Steven Davis or a high risk player like Quentin Griffin. Funny how this year the old reliables turned out to be the big upside guys...Tiki and Curtis.

So you have to think that LT, Shaun, Priest, Droughns, and maybe 1 or 2 others must go before Culpepper. By waiting until pick 6 or 7 you can hope to get a Tiki, Curtis or Duce on the way back as your RB1. That means that your WR1 is a Joe Horn caliber player and you get no RB2 or you get a Warrick Dunn as your RB2 and your WR1 is a L. Coles caliber guy. It's very hard to leave a real RB on the board in this league.

In my league Culpepper went at 1.11 and the team took Faulk in round 2. That team is now 4-2 with a good score.

Bottom line, I think pick 6 or 7 is probably the expected place, maybe 5 or 6 picks lower than this year.

Keep in mind that in my league, by pick 3.11 the last legitimate RB starter was taken. That means the Culpepper guy must go QB/RB/RB (exactly what happened in my league, he took Dunn) and the Manning guy must go RB/QB/RB. Both take WRs starting in round 4. That strategy could work with careful selection of WRs.

It still leaves the guys picking at the end of the first round with no reasonable strategies to dominate. With Moss, Culpepper and the top 8 RBs gone the choices are a stud WR or mediocre RB. This year guys like Barlow, Westbrook, Dillon, Taylor and Rudi Johnson were taken there. If you go with top WRs, you get no RBs and if you go with RBs, you are already way behind the guys with LT, Priest, Shaun, etc. Even if you knew about Mewelde Moore and Droughns through your crystal ball, they wouldn't help until week 5, too late to shoot for a top 2 spot.

Of course the season will end with late drafting guys doing well. Injuries, luck and good FA pickups will scramble the standings. But all other things being equal, I still believe that NFFC rosters and league sizes put late drafters at a big disadvantage.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:57 am

Bottom line in my opinion: It doesn't matter where you draft, it matters who you draft. No matter where you are drafting from, there will be players who can lead you to a fantasy championship.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 10:58 am

JP, that's an interesting post, but when you say that "NFFC rosters and league sizes put late drafters at a big disadvantage" and then see so many owners who picked 12th or 13th leading their leagues, it doesn't wash. Not every one of those owners avoided injuries, got lucky or had good free agent pickups. Some of them made the right decisions and even gambled by picking Culpepper in the first round, when others were telling everyone to go RB/RB. It's a fun discussion today, but the evidence thus far proves you can win from any spot in the draft if you make the right decisions. I bet you wish you could have had Culpepper at 13 now, right?

I like RB/RB, too, but Culpepper's 30+ points a week is making him more valuable than any RB. We'll just have to see if it continues.