NY vs Chicago Grudge Match Update

Sack · Post by **Sack** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 5:03 am

Ky Derby talk - classic. Mr Baffert is going to be in the Winners circle when the dust clears boys. I'm covering all three horses in the WIN spot - but Point Determined is my top choice. GL

[ April 27, 2006, 11:04 AM: Message edited by: Sack ]

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 6:08 am

Give me some background on Point Determined, SACK. Baffert is one of my favorite trainers and his horses will certainly get a look from me. I'm sure I'll be on Equibase as soon as the form for the race is available which will probably be next Thursday.

BubbasHouse · Post by **BubbasHouse** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 1:29 pm

Point Determined is in my top 5 - regardless of post. His races have positioned him well to be underplayed and overpaid! Add the Baffert factor which is postioning for these races and we got the real deal. Best thing is - Bafferts got a speed demon and he'll keep this pace quick so no one steals it (AKA - War Emblem) - he's gonna give up one for the other 2. I'm thinking no one in top 5 at first call stays in top 3 in final call. That's my handicapping factor. I may protect myself with the best 1 of those 5 but thats where the Florida Derby w/ layoff has me a bit stumped right now. Once I figure that out there's little change for me.

And hopefully it's not like the last 2 years when I come back home with my tail between my legs saying "how can you handicap THAT!" Still waiting for the $4k+ tri to go MY way!!!!

And don't count out the "Baffert Box" for the exacta - he's got real ponies for the first time since his 97-98 glory days.

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 1:32 pm

At Aqueduct RaceTrack, My Dad tried to grab Angel Cordero off his horse and give him an A$$ whoopin' when I was a kid. My Dad said he blatantly pulled back on the reigns to lose a race...Since then, I haven't been much of a horse race fan...lol

Is Sectrateriat running this year?

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 1:37 pm

Darryl, here's a picture of the $100 that I wil be sending to Tamu...You and Mike won't ever see it again, so I thought you might at least want to get a glimpse...lol

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 3:04 pm

Did a little research today and am not impressed with the Baffert trio. Could be the D.W. Lukas of 2006 hoping one of them hits a single-digit finish. Am interested in the Illinois Derby winner, Sweetnorthernsaint, in an exacta wheel and to hook with LawRon, Steppenwolfer, and Barbaro in the tri. This could obviously change with jockeys and post positions but I'll take Kent Desormeaux over any jockey in this field now that Bailey, Stevens, and Day have retired.

BubbasHouse · Post by **BubbasHouse** » Thu Apr 27, 2006 8:02 pm

Diesel - I LOVE Benji. It'll be fun to see how those Franklin's flow......... Can't believe we've still got 100+ days to go ;-(

TSCrow - WOW - you and I are not even reading the same book much less the same page. But then again you said you were staying away from the Cali crew and I can't find enough of a reason to get off of them. Bashing Baffert with the DWayne label is just cruel and uncalled for - big bully!

TamuScarecrow · Post by **TamuScarecrow** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:55 am

I should go easy on Bobby as I may throw Bob and John into the mix as the Wood winner deserves some respect. Will wait on the jockey assignment. Only Cali horse I would look at is Brother Derek and his odds won't warrant the bet. Plus I'm not a big Alex Solis fan. Your take on Sweetnorthernsaint. 3rd in the Gotham by 1/2 length and easy winner of the Illinois Derby are both excellent preps as horse proves he travels and runs well.

BubbasHouse · Post by **BubbasHouse** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:44 pm

TSCrow -

Spent 5 hours looking at all the races and the past performances. Stole sleeping hours to get this done but needed it before the trip. What I've got here won't change drastically unless something really smells (Post 1-3 & 19-20 or poor, poor work)

I need to get to 6 entries and currently have 7. All of them can't win - but all of them can be top 3. Again, working the price/pay viewpoint.

1) Brother Derek - deserved favorite and can't leave off the ticket.
2) Sweetnorthernsaint - 4 wins by monster gaps. Gotham was his for the taking and he didn't fire - but still closed ground to less than a length. Wasn't that visually impressive - but Beyers don't lie.
3) Point Determined - Continues to improve - and this is the one Baffert is using Sinister Minister for.
4) Barbaro - Not a bad race yet. Don't know what the trainer is doing and don't trust this one. Too good a horse by breeding to let go of. If I remember right classic dosage is huge.
5) Bob and John - another without a bad race. Couldn't beat the other Cali's which is why he shipped. May work out OK.
6) Showing Up - Wild card here with lack of seasoning. What you've seen you gotta like. Will definitely like his price. Need to see his dosage to be sold.
7) Bluegrass Cat - couldn't stand up to his name sake race in last, but overlook that one and he's very special. Another I'm looking very close on. Price will be wonderful.

So...... how I see the race (in advance of posts which will change this slightly):
4 horses go out and keep this with a fast-honest pace. 1st call will have SinMin, SNS, KeyEntry & Sharp Humor - and I'm betting on LawRon. Brother Derek & Barbaro just off.
... advance through turn, backstretch & turn...
By top of stretch you have all speed except LawRon & SNS gone, Brother Derek, B&J joining those two - with Point Determined and Bluegrass making thier moves. At finish - Bro Derek by 3 lengths as much the best; Point Determined or Barbaro next - with one of my others picking up the pieces. LawRon places 5-6.

And the BDH rests..........

mikeybok · Post by **mikeybok** » Fri Apr 28, 2006 1:49 pm

Originally posted by BubbasHouse:
TSCrow -

Spent 5 hours looking at all the races and the past performances. Stole sleeping hours to get this done but needed it before the trip. What I've got here won't change drastically unless something really smells (Post 1-3 & 19-20 or poor, poor work)

I need to get to 6 entries and currently have 7. All of them can't win - but all of them can be top 3. Again, working the price/pay viewpoint.

1) Brother Derek - deserved favorite and can't leave off the ticket.
2) Sweetnorthernsaint - 4 wins by monster gaps. Gotham was his for the taking and he didn't fire - but still closed ground to less than a length. Wasn't that visually impressive - but Beyers don't lie.
3) Point Determined - Continues to improve - and this is the one Baffert is using Sinister Minister for.
4) Barbaro - Not a bad race yet. Don't know what the trainer is doing and don't trust this one. Too good a horse by breeding to let go of. If I remember right classic dosage is huge.
5) Bob and John - another without a bad race. Couldn't beat the other Cali's which is why he shipped. May work out OK.
6) Showing Up - Wild card here with lack of seasoning. What you've seen you gotta like. Will definitely like his price. Need to see his dosage to be sold.
7) Bluegrass Cat - couldn't stand up to his name sake race in last, but overlook that one and he's very special. Another I'm looking very close on. Price will be wonderful.

So...... how I see the race (in advance of posts which will change this slightly):
4 horses go out and keep this with a fast-honest pace. 1st call will have SinMin, SNS, KeyEntry & Sharp Humor - and I'm betting on LawRon. Brother Derek & Barbaro just off.
... advance through turn, backstretch & turn...
By top of stretch you have all speed except LawRon & SNS gone, Brother Derek, B&J joining those two - with Point Determined and Bluegrass making thier moves. At finish - Bro Derek by 3 lengths as much the best; Point Determined or Barbaro next - with one of my others picking up the pieces. LawRon places 5-6.

And the BDH rests.......... I see you've been doing your homework ... but ... how does this help us in Monday's Draft again?