NFL 2008 "Pick'em Share Pool"

stormola · Post by **stormola** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 1:52 pm

I understand the vig is 10% , 110 for 100 . But your only paying on losses which assuming its a coin flip would be 5 % of the total handle . So you lay 110 to win a 100 twice . You win 100 and lose 110 , so your down 10 . Your total handle is 200 and %5 of that would be 10 - your losses thus far .

kapefear · Post by **kapefear** » Thu Oct 30, 2008 2:06 pm

Storm in the real world you pay 10%, I understand what your saying.In the pool the way it is set up you have 4 $250 bets, if you go 0-4 your out,unless you start to SHRINK your bets.Just like when your winning and you generally get GREEDY and INCREASE your wagers per bet......Without the VIG it does help your thinking .........

stormola · Post by **stormola** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 1:49 am

I understand . In the real world you pay 10% on losses . A book does not collect a vig ( or commision ) on winning bets .

That is why expected loses with a 10% vig with even money on both sides would be 5% of the total handle . Just as a books revenue is 5% of the total handle in given scenario .

If a book were to take 100,000 in action on a game and the bets were split 50/50 ( book's goal ) the book would payout 50,000 in winings and collect 55,000 in loses for a net commision (vig) of 5000. That is 5% of 100,000 ( total handle ) or 10% of loses .

In GLY case he has about 24,044 in losing wagers. Had he been betting with a book he would have lost about 2400 in juice , for net winnings of 1600 . Now 5% of his total handle ( 51088) is 2554 in expected losses . The reason his expected loses are higher than his actual losses is he did not cut it 50/50 . He is a bit ahead .

All I am saying is GLY would not be busted if there was a vig . He would have about 1600 shares .

stormola · Post by **stormola** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 2:04 am

I feel what your saying about Greed and increasing your wagers . Your dead on . Thats why most gamblers expected loses aren't 5% of total handle but in fact their expected loses are their entire bankroll . Because they need to win more than their bankroll can support to support their addiction and " feel " the action . So the percent of their bankroll they are wagering per event is to high and cannot support the swings and eventual they go bust .

Just like I am going to do in this pool

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:15 am

I have been out of this for numerous weeks but like the challenge.

I will join again next year and think there is no real reason to add Vig to make it real.

Make your bets within the sytem and see who reigns supreme after a whole season of the NFL.

I would like to see parlays added to take the next step. 2 - 3 team plays with normal odds. If you added too many team options it could make the challenge surreal if someone hit a 10 teamer early on.

Just my 2c.

Thanks again Marc.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 4:18 am

Originally posted by stormola:
I understand . In the real world you pay 10% on losses . A book does not collect a vig ( or commision ) on winning bets .

That is why expected loses with a 10% vig with even money on both sides would be 5% of the total handle . Just as a books revenue is 5% of the total handle in given scenario .

If a book were to take 100,000 in action on a game and the bets were split 50/50 ( book's goal ) the book would payout 50,000 in winings and collect 55,000 in loses for a net commision (vig) of 5000. That is 5% of 100,000 ( total handle ) or 10% of loses .

In GLY case he has about 24,044 in losing wagers. Had he been betting with a book he would have lost about 2400 in juice , for net winnings of 1600 . Now 5% of his total handle ( 51088) is 2554 in expected losses . The reason his expected loses are higher than his actual losses is he did not cut it 50/50 . He is a bit ahead .

All I am saying is GLY would not be busted if there was a vig . He would have about 1600 shares . You're right storm, I realized that right after I posted but was too lazy to edit

. The point remains the same, however - I think adding the vig makes the contest a better test of skill.

[ October 31, 2008, 10:18 AM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 8:35 am

Kevin, I still don't see how it's not realistic. Should the lines change as they do with realistic gambling? Ours remain the same, is that realistic?

Obviously I'm totally against adding the Vig. We are already losing if we bet incorrectly; there really isn't a need to penalize even more. And I would be saying this even if I were one of the 3 who haven't placed a bet<-------

BTW, this is the only "action" that I get, so that is why you see me betting so frequently.

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 9:21 am

Like the contest the way it is, I still stink.

John

stormola · Post by **stormola** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 9:22 am

I think GLY makes a great point about the line changes . I like the Vig but either way I give all the props to Diesel for running a great pool . If there was one thing that would be nice to change is maybe not having lines set until Friday . I know I went all in on both entries when Palmer went down before the Jet game . I was laying 5.5 when every book in Vegas was at 9.5 ( of course the stanky Jets left the backdoor wide open and I almost bit it ) . Not sure if it is possible to fix this , not sure it matters , everyone has the same oppurtunity ( although depending on bankroll at the time the size of the opp. will differ ) . I also understand the anti vig sentiment , keep it simple and easy is a valid point .

Bottom line for me is it is a great pool , thank you Diesel , and I can't wait for the College Football pool , thank you Kapefear .

WE ARE

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Fri Oct 31, 2008 10:26 am

Thanks for the props guys. I'm takng in all of the info. I've gotten a few emails over the last few weeks too. I'll think it over. Keep the opinions coming.

As far as the spreads...I can set it for any day. I know it's a loophole in the system, allowing it to set on Tuesdays, but that's what's recommended if you (as a commssioner) don't want to re-set the deadline rules, each time there is a Thursday game, or some other odd day. It's not too much work at all for me to do, so if I'm able to switch the deadlines, I will make it Fridays next year...Unless there is a Thursday game. Then I'd have to lock it in on Wednesdays.