H2H Imbalance

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:09 am

Dave

What I'm talking about is a real championship game. The "Super Bowl" of the NFFC so to speak.

All qualifying playoff teams would accumulate pts. in wks. 14&15. The top 2 would go H2H in wk. 16 for the championship. All remaining teams could continue to accumulate pts for 3rd place money on down.

This is just a thought and could have several modifications. I'm looking for input.

This is my first high stakes event. You've got more experience so let me ask another question.

Have any other high stakes contests had a "championship game" of any kind? If so, was it successful?

Thanks for your reply.

RC

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:21 am

Originally posted by Route C:
Dave

What I'm talking about is a real championship game. The "Super Bowl" of the NFFC so to speak.

All qualifying playoff teams would accumulate pts. in wks. 14&15. The top 2 would go H2H in wk. 16 for the championship. All remaining teams could continue to accumulate pts for 3rd place money on down.

This is just a thought and could have several modifications. I'm looking for input.

This is my first high stakes event. You've got more experience so let me ask another question.

Have any other high stakes contests had a "championship game" of any kind? If so, was it successful?

Thanks for your reply.

RC RC -

The downside is that you knock out 30 other teams with a week left in the season because they may be 1/2 a point out of first after only a 2-week playoff. Using the whole 3 weeks to determine the winner seems more fair.

A h2h Super Bowl is an appealing concept nonetheless. Fly the 2 guys to Vegas for a party along with G & T and invite anyone else in the contest to come out. Could be fun, maybe a few years away to feasible because of cost.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:24 am

Gordon

In your opinion would any of these ideas better balance the #'s you showed at the top of this thread?

Also, what are your thoughts on a championship game?

RC

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:42 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by Route C:
RC -

The downside is that you knock out 30 other teams with a week left in the season because they may be 1/2 a point out of first after only a 2-week playoff. Using the whole 3 weeks to determine the winner seems more fair.

A h2h Super Bowl is an appealing concept nonetheless. Fly the 2 guys to Vegas for a party along with G & T and invite anyone else in the contest to come out. Could be fun, maybe a few years away to feasible because of cost. [/QUOTE]I understand what you're saying Duke and you're probably right about the 1/2 pt. thing.

Given that particular downside, doesn't the dream have to end at some point for all but one team?

It seems the odds are good that one or more teams will always be left wishing for one more week to catch up.

A championship game seems like an exciting finish to a tough event.

RC

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:50 am

Originally posted by Route C:
Gordon

In your opinion would any of these ideas better balance the #'s you showed at the top of this thread?i haven't done any analysis, but off the cuff the all-play format would seem to get rid of all luck. BUT, greg said he isn't going that route.

Originally posted by Route C:
Also, what are your thoughts on a championship game? doesn't interest me. let all the top teams have the full three weeks.

[ December 04, 2004, 10:57 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 4:56 am

Originally posted by Route C:
Have any other high stakes contests had a "championship game" of any kind? If so, was it successful? i only know of one other event that is close to the NFFC. there is no overall championship game for the playoff teams. i believe it is similar format to what we have in the NFFC. playoffs week 13-16. winner is the team with the most "playoff" points + weekly average.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:05 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
[/qb]i was waiting for this opportunity...

stat for the 50 NFFC teams that have faced the MOST points against through 12 weeks:
Avg pts scored per week: 118

stat for the 50 NFFC teams that have faced the LEAST points against through 12 weeks:
Avg pts scored per week: 123

so, the "BETTER" teams you are talking about have a big 5pt advantage over the "beatdown due to random scheduling" teams. should that account for such an imbalance of wins/losses? answer = no. the reason is random scheduling.

in summary here's the splits...
Beatdown Team 118 pts/week and 130 PA/week = 4.5 wins 7.5 losses
Better/Lucky Team 123 pts/week and 111 PA/week = 7.5 wins 4.5 losses

[/QB][/quote]

You're proving my point again.

Of the 50 teams at 118, I would guess that most of them (45-47) are the bad teams in their league. They are simply facing BETTER teams as you have proven here, and thus are going to have higher PA's because they don't have the players scoring the points that their opponents do.

Of the 50 teams at 123, the same is true just reversed.

I'm very busy at work, but last night I did scroll through all the standings. There are a few exceptions on both ends of the standings involving both very high and very low PTs for/pts against.

That's the issue here for this thread. How to deal with the 1267-1256 team that is 8-4, and the 1657-1710 team that is 5-7.

That's why my propoal determines the best team. Two best H2H gets byes. Next 4 by PTS in a 3-week h2h playoff. TEAM 1657 will smoke team lucky 1267 in a playoff game. The way it is now, team 1657 doesn't even get a chance.

back to this......

118/130 4.5-7.5
123/111 7.5/4.5

That seems perfectly normal to me.

12 point AVERAGE differential over 12 weeks, (144 pts)

(118*12=)1416-(130*12=)1540 sounds about 5-6, 4-7 to me. Might get a Lucky 6-6 on scheduling there, and a few 3-8 too.

With all due respect, the "5 pt" thing is not to way to look at this.
I'm not trying to discount that H2H imperfections here. And I'm not as I first said, throwing out what you have done here.

Just take a look at all the standings. You will see that at the bottom, those teams have given up the most because the other teams are just much better.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:11 am

I see your point, UFS... the reason everyone else in the league has so many points against is they play me and I don't, etc.

There's a certain logic to this... but stats can be used to effectively prove a lot of things. I think the basic point is that pure H2H is inequitable and so how is a better mousetrap to be constructed?

Zef - I like the all play, I really do... played it in other places and it's good. But Greg's already ruled it out. It does add a (very modest) layer of confusion to the novice. I'm inclined to say not many novices would throw down this kind of cash to play, but then again we should encourage as many as possible, right?

How about some more talk on the play 2 concept... anyone like/dislike, does it 'help' or not enough towards reducing the luck factor?

I'm envisioning an environment where you get to trash talk TWICE as much opponent vs. opponent AND eliminating some of the luck issues by having twice the sample size. It wouldn't take away from the score watching on Sunday... would just DOUBLE it.

AND, even more importantly, I think it's the kind of modest change that is simple, effective and Greg could consider.

Stepping stones, eh?

Dave

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:12 am

Originally posted by UFS:

118/130 4.5-7.5
123/111 7.5-4.5

That seems perfectly normal to me.
that sound you just heard is the trap closing on your foot. gekko's got to run now, but i promise to get back to this tonight or tommorow.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Dec 04, 2004 5:45 am

Dave

I could be swayed toward a play 2. Never done it before but then again the NFFC scoring format was new to me this year and I really like it.

What are your thoughts on a championship game?

RC