2009 Breeders Cup

[Ted's Cracked Head]

Here are my thoughts:

2009 Breeders Cup
Oak Tree Santa Anita
November 7, 2009

Race 2: BC Juv Turf, 1 mile, G2, 11:45am cst

Top 3
1) #7 Bridgetown 8/1
2) 11 Interatif 4/1
3) #4 Pounced 9/2

4) #5 Gallant Gent 30/1 (up for a piece?)
5) #3 Codoy 15/1 (up for a piece?)

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 3, 4, 5, 7, 11 / 2, 3, 4, 7 / 1, 3, 5 (cost $60) (too much value to pass up)
$2 Exacta Box: 4, 7, 11 (cost $12)
$1 Tri: 4, 7, 11 / 3, 4, 5, 7, 11 / 3, 4, 5, 7, 11 (cost $36)

Race 3: BC Turf Sprint, 6.5f, Turf, 12:25 cst
#3 California Flag 3/2 is the best horse in this one but no lock.
#4 Lord Shanakill 5/1
#7 Gotta Have Her 15/1
#2 Silver Timber 8/1
#1 Noble Court 8/1 (maybe gets up for a piece but not to win)

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 2, 3, 4, 7 / 1, 3, 5 / 5, 8, 10, 13 (cost $48)

Race 4: BC Sprint, 6f, 1:10 cst
Chalk for my pick 3’s, drag
#1 Zensational 7/5
#3 Fatal Bullet 7/2
#5 Gayego 5/2
Note: I would add in #9 Fleeting Spirit 8/1 if I was playing the exotics

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 1, 3, 5 / 5, 8, 13, 10 / 3, 7, 11 (cost $36)

Race 5: BC Juv, 1 1/16 mile, 1:49 cst
#5 D’Funnybone 5/2 (horse to beat)
#8 Eskendereya 10/1
#13 lokkin at lucky 8/5
#10 Aspire 20/1 (I like this horse a ton at 20/1)

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 5, 8, 10, 13 / 3, 7, 11 / 1, 4, 7 (cost $36)
$2 Tri: 5 / 8, 10, 13 / 8, 10, 13 (cost $12)

Race 6: BC Mile Turf, 2:20 cst
#3 Cowboy Cal 6/1
#7 Ferneley 20/1 (longshot alert)
#11 Goldikova 8/5
#6 Courageous Cat 20/1 (longshot #2)
#2 Whatsthescript 15/1

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 3, 7, 11 / 1, 4, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 (cost $36)

Race 7: BC Dirt Mile, 3:12 cst
#1 Mastercraftsmen 6/5
#7 Pyro 10/1
#4 Bullsbay 3/1

Wagering
$1 Pick 3: 1, 4, 7 / 2, 5, 6, 7 / 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 (cost $72)

Race 8: BC Turf, 1 ½ mile, 3:57 cst
#5 Dar Re Mi 3/1
#2 Conduit 7/5
#6 Presious Passion 4/1
#7 Spanish Moon 7/2
#4 Allegre 50/1 (longshot)

Race 9: The Classic, 1 ¼, 4:45 cst
#5 Twice Over 20/1 (for the win)
#3 Summer Bird 9/2
#4 Zenyata 5/2
#9 Girolamo 20/1 (longshot 2)
#10 Rip Van Winkle 7/2
#1 Mine That Bird 12/1

Wager
$1 Tri Box: 1, 3, 4, 5, 9, 10 (cost $120)

Good Luck to all!

[Gordon Gekko II]

Thanks Rob. Which one of those would you deem your "best bet"? I've dabbled in horse racing years ago and might take a peek at this.

[Ted's Cracked Head]

My favorite race of the day for perceived value is Race 6.

Speed was king yesterday (on the turf too) allowing horses with early speed and deep real closers the chance to score.

I think the pace sets up for #7 Ferneley at 20/1 to have a solid shot at winning.

It is a very deep field which makes it harder to guess but it also offers the nicest odds of the day for horses that fit my profile for today.

3 of my 5 horses in this race have morning line odds greater than 15/1

Who could really hurt me on this one:

#8 Zacinto 8/1 and #4 Delegator 3/1 - the horses from across the pond. Of the two I like Delegator the most as I feel his numbers seem to indicate he will like this turf surface better than Zacinto.

If I were to go six deep in a tri box I would add the 4 in. For $120, that 6 horse tri box would pay no matter which of the 6 hit. I may just do this, especially if I hit the first race today.

I like my picks in Race 3 as well. 6.5 on the turf, this sprint will be a blast to watch. Again, horses with quick turn of foot and DEEP closers proven at 6f are who I am seeking on the turf at this distance.

#3 California Flag is the class of this race. Both he and #2 Silver Timber will be on the lead with #10 Canadian Bullet (rabbit and die).

#7 Gotta Have Her 15/1 likes this surface and will love the pace. I am hoping he can run down Cali Flag who is going to be pushed. #1 Lord Shanakill 8/1 is my foreigner in this one and #1 Noble Court has the strongest late numbers. He has shown that he can close at this distance when the pace is true.

I think that Pick 3's are the way to go today. Yesterday they paid: 421, 641, 949, 423, 176, 189

The Pick 4s paid: 3450 and 1171.

Yesterdays Pick 6 paid 155,819 for a winning $2 ticket and 2075 for 5 right.

If I hit an early tri or pick 3, I will be adding the pick 4s and take a shot at the pick 6, otherwise my bank for today does not allow it.

[Ted's Cracked Head]

Mark, if you want todays sheets in a pdf, email me at [email protected]

[Ted's Cracked Head]

The Classic minus the horse I wanted to see, Rachel Alexander, will be a nice way to cap off a great day of racing.

I like #5 Twice Over at 20/1. This is my hope to fund next years FF for my last pick 3.

#3 Summer Bird 9/2 is the horse I have first. Though Zenyata and Mine That Bird are the closers who fit my profile here, Summer Bird can rate and finish. He fits my profile for today the best in this race.

I am drawn to #9 Girolamo though he has never gone beyond a mile. The Shiek has two entries adding in Regal Ransom. Which one will be sacrificed? I hope if is Regal Ransom as Girolamo again has the numbers that are driving my handicapping today.

#10 Rip Van Winkle 7/2 is the horse I really do not want to keep in because i do have distance questions but for some reason I cannot drop him out and add in Quality Road who I like more.

Good Luck

[BLACKHAND]

ROB , YOUR THE MAN. i have a out of country acct online and going to chill with a couple octoberfest and bet some races. in the 2nd i like codoy.

[gk4444]

Hey Rob big day for us BDHs Good luck with your picks let me add to the fire
2nd no 2 or 11
3rd no 14 or 12 PRICES
4th no 4 or 8 BEAT THE CHALK
5th no 9 or 11 TOUGH TO CALL
6th no 2 or 1 CAN KENT FIRE FROM BEHIND
7th no 1 TOUGH FAVORITE MAYBE 2 CHARGING
8th no 6 ON THE LEAD???? 2 TOUGH 3 2006 winner
9th no 6 WITH SOLIS??? 8 EINSTEIN GREAT NAME or RIP VAN WINKLE+++++
If you read this GOOD LUCK on a great racing day GEORGE no

[Ted's Cracked Head]

My Race 8 Longshot to fill the tri or Super #4 Allegre scratched.

The only other scratch so far is in the second race, #9 Keras Kitten is out.

[BLACKHAND]

30 win codoy.long day. got to start slow.

[BLACKHAND]

hope its not real long..lol