Reggie Bush – Pop!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 2:26 am

Anyone have the guts to put out a “SELL” on a player who was drafted as a core player on a lot of teams and has performed very well to date? You know I do! Here goes…

In leagues outside of 1PPR for RB, Bush HAS been a CAREER BUST and will likely remain a CAREER BUST.

Here’s my pre-draft take on RB Reggie Bush…

Some pre-draft FACTUAL details:
In 2006, Bush had
155 carries with an avg of 3.6 yards per carry with 4 tds
88 catches with an avg of 8.4 yards per catch with 2 tds
Total of 243 touches with an avg of 5.37 yards per touch

In 2007, Bush had
157 carries with an avg of 3.7 yards per carry with 6 tds
73 catches with an avg of 5.7 yards per catch with 2 tds
Total of 230 touches with an avg of 4.33 yards per touch
Bush was injured for the last 4 games of the season.

My pre-draft OPINION:
Reggie Bush is CLEARLY NOT a running back. Maybe it’s his slight build. Maybe he doesn’t have the proper makeup to beat NFL DL and LB. But, whatever it is, he has a CAREER rushing average of less than 3.7 yards a carry. That’s a joke! Furthermore, I contend that allowing him to CARRY the ball increases his chance at injury more so than a “typical running back”.

Here’s my current OPINION:
Bush will clearly reap a short-term benefit from Colston being injured. Although it would not surprise me one bit, if Bush end up hurt again (due to the excessive workload) or if he loses significant value once Colston comes back. Either way, I see Bush as a balloon ready to pop. And if he doesn’t get hurt, he’ll pop once Colston returns and it will be at a time fantasy owners could least afford it, end of the season and playoff time.

[ September 18, 2008, 08:27 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:06 am

I agree with the majority of this, as Bush's value in NFFC scoring is MUCH different than 1 full point for catches.

However, I think most astute owners already know that Reggie can't handle more than 12-15 carries a game, and his true value comes from his catches.

Although Colston is "the man" in the passing game, one could argue that Bush is just as much "the man", due to the amount of GUARANTEED dumpoffs he gets per game.

The thing about Bush is he IS dynamic IN SPACE (go back to week one with his catch vs Tampa Bay), and that is where Sean Payton should use him.

I wonder if you own Pierre Thomas in any leagues.... hmmm?

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:19 am

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
I agree with the majority of this, as Bush's value in NFFC scoring is MUCH different than 1 full point for catches.To a degree. Last year, Bush ranked 7th among RBs in PPR leagues and was 10th in the NFFC. That's not a huge difference. I don't know where he ranks in full PPR leagues so far this year but he ranks 6th thus far in NFFC and NBC scoring.

Bush was a HUGE value given his ADP in any league that rewards bonus points of some kind for receptions.

I agree with Gekko that in standard scoring leagues his value sinks heavily. And I also question whether he'll ever become a high-quality NFL RB. He hasn't made much progress thus far in my opinion.

[ September 18, 2008, 09:19 AM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:39 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Last year, Bush ranked 7th among RBs in PPR leagues and was 10th in the NFFC. That's not a huge difference. bush was the #16 rb in the nffc last year.

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:45 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Last year, Bush ranked 7th among RBs in PPR leagues and was 10th in the NFFC. That's not a huge difference. bush was the #16 rb in the nffc last year. [/QUOTE]He was 7th in average points per game unless I clicked on the wrong link - which is entirely possible.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 3:46 am

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
Last year, Bush ranked 7th among RBs in PPR leagues and was 10th in the NFFC. That's not a huge difference. bush was the #16 rb in the nffc last year. [/QUOTE]He was 7th in average points per game unless I clicked on the wrong link - which is entirely possible. [/QUOTE]he was #7 in avg points per game played. where did he rank for the games he missed (during fantasy playoff time mind you)

Tom Kessenich · Post by **Tom Kessenich** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:29 am

I think he still ranked ahead of Rudi Johnson.

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:40 am

In a league where you can trade, his value may never be higher this year. The key word is may because if he can stay on he field he could be gold.

Maybe he isn't a true RB but who cares. He is listed as one on the depth chart, he is going to get a large number of touches each week and the points will follow though the TDs are going to have to come from 5-10 yards and beyond. (until he breaks down)

Buy low sell high comes to mind but by doing so you must realize you are dealing an elite athlete in a premium offense. That combination is getting harder and harder to find, especially this year.

His durability issue is what might lead most folks to make this move right now but I am a gambler and want this type of player on my team.

At this stage of the season and with the current state of the NFL and fantasy world, I would really like to see the types of offers that he would garnish.

In the NBC draft I started with Brady then Wayne and when Bush was there for me at 3.3, was a no-brainer. He fits my "homerun" mold and I can only hope that he stays on the field.

Run Reggie Run!

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:42 am

Originally posted by Ted's Cracked Head:
Run Reggie Run! don't you mean "Catch Reggie Catch"

Ted's Cracked Head · Post by **Ted's Cracked Head** » Thu Sep 18, 2008 4:43 am

He has to run after the catch to have any value.