Early Season NFFC Draft Results

[CoMoHusker]

Plus even a QB like Stafford had 7 games of 25 or less points. So he has a shot that Eli would do better in those weeks and he can get an extra 5-10 PPG from his QB position. And with the depth this year at WR, maybe he felt it better to lock up QB?

I understand what you are saying here Sandman but I'm in this draft and the owner didn't take a RB until round six and that was in the form of Peyton Hillis. And although I do think he has a much better year than last, having him as a RB1 is pretty tough action. I think the amount of points lost there won't be made up over the year from the difference between Stafford and Eli on a week to week basis. I could very well be wrong, but I bet he will really regret not taking a RB in round three.

I don't think I'd take two QBs that early but I can see how it could work. If Charles' ACL isn't 100% and he gets hurt, Hillis could be a STUD. If he fills in well with all the mid-round WR depth and hits a couple, etc. All the while, with two top QBs, he greatly reduces his chances of ever losing 10+ points at QB when his QB1 has bad games.

I've seen it done in a couple DCs but usually a few rounds later, when it seems at the time that someone is just being cute and trying to block someone from landing the lat worthy starting QB. Quite honestly, it does piss me off a bit at the time. It's an interesting strategy though.

I've seen a lot of different things work so maybe this will. I'm glad that I'm in the league so that I can follow it a bit. It's an interesting strategy. I've seen two QB's go in the first five rounds a handful of times, some worked out, and some didn't. I guess nobody ever wins a league without a little bit of good fortune and stranger things have happened.

[CALI CARTEL]

The guy who picked the two QB's in the first 3 rounds could know exactly what he's doing...who knows. If Staford goes down in the first quarter of game 1 (Ask the '99 Jets if that can happen to your starting QB), Eli steps in and he's in good shape. If enough of his other picks hit, he can win the league.

There's a small issue you are forgetting with the "Eli steps in and he's in good shape" part...He won't be in good shape, because he'll be down a first round pick and won't have any decent depth at RB or WR.

It's the same thing as going RB-RB-RB, then losing your top RB and saying, "Oh well, I'm in good shape still" -- no you aren't, you basically just lost your 1st pick and have to replace him at flex, that's disastrous.

When you take someone in the 1st round, you can't "handcuff" them in the 3rd and expect to have good enough depth elsewhere to win...that's not bashing a strategy, that's just common sense.

[Sandman62]

But it's NOT a handcuff in the traditional sense because the roster spot isn't wasted; it's a DC, so when he outscores your QB1, you get the higher points. Compare that to taking a crappy backup later and you probably get stuck using your QB1's bad games.

[CALI CARTEL]

But it's NOT a handcuff in the traditional sense because the roster spot isn't wasted; it's a DC, so when he outscores your QB1, you get the higher points. Compare that to taking a crappy backup later and you probably get stuck using your QB1's bad games.

I ran the numbers, last year Stafford & Eli would've give you right about the same total points as Rodgers (Rodgers pro-rated to ~560, if he had zero upgrades on his season from a backup QB). It's less than an 80 pt upgrade over Stafford himself with no other upgrades. So, the question is, Is the 1.08 & 3.08 worth the 1.02 & 20.02 to get Rodgers and whoever your last pick is? You can draft another QB with Rodgers in the mid rounds who could give you an extra few points over Rodgers as well, so the tradeoff really isn't Stafford/Eli vs Rodgers/9th round backup, because that 9th round backup is free for the team who took Rodgers.

I don't like it, give me Stafford, my 3rd round RB or WR and someone late like Schaub/Cutler/Luck/Dalton/Fitzpatrick to maybe give me a few bonus starts and I'll take that to the bank. If you really are set on Stafford + a big guy, at least wait until some value presents itself, rather than jumping on a guy in the 3rd.

[DonnyG.]

Well yes i am new to these boards and thought that i was missing something but after reading the so called justifications for this strategy i have to say that it does NOT make sense at all UNLESS there's the unforseen - an injury to one of the two qb's. I mean like someone here wrote, i can see it happenning in rds 1 or 7 at the earliest or something like that. But to pass up 3rd round talent at any position besides qb when you already locked that up in the 1st round really seems foreign and strange. Maybe he knocks out the rest of the draft and laughs all the way to the bank but i find that kind of difficult to do with hillis as his rb1. I would love to see this owners whole team listed just for shifts and giggles.

As far as mjd is concerned comohusker the dude is the most under-loved and rated rb in the league. I don't know what and how many times he has to prove that he produces big time whether he's hurt or on a putrid team. He's just money and especially after last year i don't see how anyone can question him. Oh let me play devil's advocate - too many carries you say right? MJD doesn't get hit! He's compact, low to the ground, has legs like tree trunks, a small body frame so the big defensive guys can't even wrap him up and bring him down with leg tackles much less knock him down to the turf with a body shot tackle. It just seems like he never really takes too many big hits. If anyone's legs are still fresh after 300 carries per year for 3 years it's mjd. And like i said before his mind is always in the right place - both a great real and ff player.

[CoMoHusker]

Well yes i am new to these boards and thought that i was missing something but after reading the so called justifications for this strategy i have to say that it does NOT make sense at all UNLESS there's the unforseen - an injury to one of the two qb's. I mean like someone here wrote, i can see it happenning in rds 1 or 7 at the earliest or something like that. But to pass up 3rd round talent at any position besides qb when you already locked that up in the 1st round really seems foreign and strange. Maybe he knocks out the rest of the draft and laughs all the way to the bank but i find that kind of difficult to do with hillis as his rb1. I would love to see this owners whole team listed just for shifts and giggles.

As far as mjd is concerned comohusker the dude is the most under-loved and rated rb in the league. I don't know what and how many times he has to prove that he produces big time whether he's hurt or on a putrid team. He's just money and especially after last year i don't see how anyone can question him. Oh let me play devil's advocate - too many carries you say right? MJD doesn't get hit! He's compact, low to the ground, has legs like tree trunks, a small body frame so the big defensive guys can't even wrap him up and bring him down with leg tackles much less knock him down to the turf with a body shot tackle. It just seems like he never really takes too many big hits. If anyone's legs are still fresh after 300 carries per year for 3 years it's mjd. And like i said before his mind is always in the right place - both a great real and ff player.

Nine rounds into the draft the team looks like this:

Stafford, Jennings, Eli, Lloyd, Finley, Hillis, J. Stewart, Little, and S. Rice

He's got some nice pieces there. I love Stafford, Jennings, and Finley this year. I also think Hillis surprises this year but like I said, I wouldn't want to rely on him as my RB1. I don't really think there's a "right or wrong" way to go about drafting because a lot of it is personal preference. Some guys live by ADP while others simple target who the want regardless. That's the beauty of this game and what fun would it be if we couldn't debate all those approaches and critique picks on these boards.

[DonnyG.]

That's my whole point though. He has to take a hit somewhere else by doing that and it's obviously at the rb position. I'd like to see what he finishes with but you are right - you never know.

[got heeem]

well guys i tried this way of drafting last year . got my ass handed to me . i went wr / brees / wr/ rivers . as we know brees blew up had a monster year . rivers was useless all year . i was short on rb all year . if i would have took a rb instead of rivers i would have been a lot better off . i would NEVER lay the 2 high qbs again . it shorts you somewhere .

[got heeem]

this year after learning by losing i think baring injury . i like my teams .by looking back at last year that 2 qbs was like throwing money away . will not work simple as that . got to have balance .

[Sandman62]

That's my whole point though. He has to take a hit somewhere else by doing that and it's obviously at the rb position. I'd like to see what he finishes with but you are right - you never know.

I know you admitted that you're new to the NFFC, but am I correct in assuming you're familiar with the differences between a Draft Champions (DC) and a regular league? Mainly, that we don't set our lineups; instead, the computer assigns the best at each position after the games are played.

Given that, drafting a QB2 soon after a QB1 can add up to more points at this position. For example, using last year's stats, a Stafford/Eli combo would've yielded 38-57 points more than combining Stafford with Schaub, Cutler, Dalton or Fitzpatrick (maybe a little less than that had Schaub and Cutler not missed 5-6 games each).

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stafford Pts 32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 0 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15
Emanning Pts 18.6 20.95 36.4 26.75 35.5 14.5 0 29.15 24.6 25.95 17.2 31.7 33.35 30.8 9.85 16.15
32.25 37.8 36.4 26.75 35.5 27.55 15.15 33.45 24.6 25.95 44.95 31.7 33.35 30.8 43.05 37.15 516.4

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stafford Pts 32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 0 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15
Schaub Pts 15 23.7 35.65 13 30.8 17.3 26.8 22.45 10.95 24.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
32.25 37.8 35.65 22.9 30.8 27.55 26.8 33.45 10.95 24.2 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15 478.55

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stafford Pts 32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 0 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15
Cutler Pts 26.6 18.4 26.2 4.3 18.75 24.35 15.2 0 22.4 6.95 32.3 0 0 0 0 0
32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.2 33.45 22.4 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15 459.15

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stafford Pts 32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 0 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15
Dalton Pts 10.05 28.9 6.35 26.1 19.95 19.1 0 18.7 29.25 18.5 24.85 20.8 13.35 14.65 7.75 24.5
32.25 37.8 30.8 26.1 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 29.25 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15 469.15

Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Stafford Pts 32.25 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 0 18.55 44.95 21.9 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15
Fitzpatrick Pts 34.7 32.5 27.85 10.45 15.35 23 0 23.5 16.45 12.3 10.05 34.6 19.5 9.4 25.5 12
34.7 37.8 30.8 22.9 22.05 27.55 15.15 33.45 16.45 18.55 44.95 34.6 25.4 23.75 43.05 37.15 468.3

As you can see above, Eli's weekly scores would've been used over Stafford's in a DC league 8 times. Schaub's 5, Cutler and Dalton 2, and Fitzpatrick 3. So I think it's pretty clear that combining Eli with Stafford would've been better at the QB position, albeit likely by only about 40-50 points.

It seems that you're assuming that players drafted from rounds 3 and into the mid-rounds are definitely "better" than those drafted later. Well, maybe so, if the object of this game were to determine who feels the best about their team coming away from the draft table. Truthfully, in previous years, I've posted my own projections for all starters in some of my leagues, in an attempt to show "Who drafted the best team?". But I've come to learn that there's an awful lot of luck in this game and most of it is found in the mid-late rounds. For example, take a look at last year's RB and WRs and how they fared vs. how they were projected (at draft day) to produce:

Rank RB
ADP Actual PLAYER TEAM
1 7 Adrian Peterson MIN
2 2 Ray Rice BAL
3 12 Chris Johnson TEN
4 3 Arian Foster HOU
5 88 Jamaal Charles KC
6 1 LeSean McCoy PHI
7 22 Rashard Mendenhall PIT
8 27 Darren McFadden OAK
9 5 Maurice Jones-Drew JAC
10 4 Matt Forte CHI
11 15 Frank Gore SF
12 17 Steven Jackson STL
13 42 Peyton Hillis CLE
14 10 Michael Turner ATL
15 49 Felix Jones DAL
16 31 Jahvid Best DET
17 26 Ahmad Bradshaw NYG
18 30 LeGarrette Blount TB
19 11 Ryan Mathews SD
20 20 Shonn Greene NYJ

Rank WR
ADP Actual PLAYER TEAM
1 59 Andre Johnson HOU
2 2 Calvin Johnson DET
3 8 Roddy White ATL
4 10 Larry Fitzgerald ARI
5 12 Hakeem Nicks NYG
6 9 Vincent Jackson SD
7 3 Greg Jennings GB
8 5 Mike Wallace PIT
9 57 Miles Austin DAL
10 29 Reggie Wayne IND
11 16 Dwayne Bowe KC
12 15 Brandon Marshall MIA
13 1 Wes Welker NE
14 18 Dez Bryant DAL
15 35 DeSean Jackson PHI
16 25 Mike Williams TB
17 21 Brandon Lloyd STL
18 17 Stevie Johnson BUF
19 28 Santonio Holmes NYJ
20 24 Marques Colston NO

In both cases, 8 of 20 who were projected top-20 didn't finish there. That's a 40% failure rate! I've done this analysis in the past couple years too and it seems to run about 40-50% failure rate at RB/WR. IOW, though we can all look at a draft board and proclaim "HIS team stinks cuz his RBs and/or WRs don't have low ADPs!", that doesn't make us at all right on this because by season's end, 40% of the top-20 finishers WON'T have come from the top-20 picks at their position.

My point is that someone who realizes that most of the production from our RB and WR corps (after the bonafide 1st-round studs) will eventually come from who fares the luckiest in the mid-rounds may decide that "Heck, if it's such a crap shoot at those positions anyway, why not try to get a 40-50 point seasonal advantage at QB?".

Again, I'm not sure I'd ever try this, but I can certainly see why someone might.