Early Season NFFC Draft Results

[Sandman62]

I ran the numbers, last year Stafford & Eli would've give you right about the same total points as Rodgers (Rodgers pro-rated to ~560, if he had zero upgrades on his season from a backup QB). It's less than an 80 pt upgrade over Stafford himself with no other upgrades. So, the question is, Is the 1.08 & 3.08 worth the 1.02 & 20.02 to get Rodgers and whoever your last pick is? You can draft another QB with Rodgers in the mid rounds who could give you an extra few points over Rodgers as well, so the tradeoff really isn't Stafford/Eli vs Rodgers/9th round backup, because that 9th round backup is free for the team who took Rodgers.

I'm not following the logic in this??? Obviously, the person that picked Stafford 14th didn't have the opportunity to draft Rodgers. But if he was looking to close the gap on the team that DID draft Rodgers, "upgrading" Stafford + bum to Stafford + Eli would've done the trick.

[David U Kennedy]

Picking Eli is kinda obsurd when he can be had in the 5th round anyways. Not many drafts where your going to see him drafted in the 3rd. You should be able to get a Qb of equal quality in round 4,5,6. Matt Ryan, Big Ben, maybe Rivers. I drafted Eli in the 7th round last year. In that sense it makes no sense too me.

[Chi_Town_FEW]

I like the 2 QBs early. I did DCs for the first time last year and the are very different from a standard draft. So much so that if you draft with the"standard" approach, building your starting lineup with your first 7-8 picks, you might find yourself in the middle of the pack. There are positional runs that are stupid funny. You can have 10+ TE, K, or DEF go off between picks. All I am saying is this draft(a DC) is very different from what everyone is used to in how the picks come off the board. I had Bradford as my second QB in a couple of these last year and that was about as useless a pick as you could get. I get the 2 QBs being picked. Good luck guys.

[boutrous11]

lol Greg I think you're in the wrong thread.

[Greg Ambrosius]

lol Greg I think you're in the wrong thread.

Man, thanks for pointing to me to the right highway. I was mighty lost for a bit there!! I'm driving on the right road now, thanks to you.

[KenGill]

Sandman -- your post was one of the BEST writeups I have ever seen on an NFFC or NFBC board. Well researched and you clearly made the point that perhaps taking the 2 QB's early really could have helped a team. I'm guessing that you have won money over the course of time.

When 40% of a given set of players is going to be a bust -- that kind of shows you that relying on ADP is pointless. The object of this game is to get good players. Not to rely on ADP or where they "should" be picked. The "herd mentality" rarely works here.

[DonnyG.]

To answer your question here sandman yes i am familiar with the dc format of play. And i really tried to follow your post but i will admit it was hard to do. Too many numbers. I believe that it's just as important to be a "gut" guy as it is to be a "numbers" guy when it comes to building a ff team. I'm sorry that i don't get all of your post but no matter how i slice it and dice it i still feel that taking 2 qb's in the first 3 rounds is CRAZY regardless of the format. The owner misses out on a VERY valuable 3rd round talent at any position other than qb. I just can't wrap my head on how that is an effective strategy. Sorry.

[Sandman62]

To answer your question here sandman yes i am familiar with the dc format of play. And i really tried to follow your post but i will admit it was hard to do. Too many numbers. I believe that it's just as important to be a "gut" guy as it is to be a "numbers" guy when it comes to building a ff team. I'm sorry that i don't get all of your post but no matter how i slice it and dice it i still feel that taking 2 qb's in the first 3 rounds is CRAZY regardless of the format. The owner misses out on a VERY valuable 3rd round talent at any position other than qb. I just can't wrap my head on how that is an effective strategy. Sorry.

Sorry for the number bombardment. Try reading it again though, and just skip the detailed data and read the narrative.

What I'm saying is that your hypothesis that "a VERY valuable 3rd round talent" exists is only right about 50% of the time. You may FEEL like it was a valuable pick on draft day, but nearly half the time, it won't end up that way.

For example, here are a couple 14-team DCs I was in last year and who was drafted in the 3rd round. Off the top of my head, I'm guessing that the ones I marked with an * didn't perform according to a 3rd round pick. Some due to injury, some just busts, but it really doesn't matter WHY they didn't deliver, just that they didn't.

1 Reggie Wayne WR *
2 Brandon Marshall WR
3 Frank Gore RB
4 Tony Romo QB
5 Felix Jones RB *
6 Peyton Manning QB
7 Jahvid Best RB *
8 Mike Williams WR *
9 Ben Roethlisberger QB
10 Shonn Greene RB *
11 Antonio Gates TE *
12 Ryan Mathews RB
13 LeGarrette Blount RB *
14 Stevie Johnson WR
*** Ignoring QBs (seeing your premise is that he should've taken a RB/WR/TE in round 3), there are 11 non-QBs and 7 didn't meet ADP expectations.

1 Wes Welker WR
2 Reggie Wayne WR *
3 Dez Bryant WR
4 Peyton Hillis RB *
5 Tony Romo QB
6 Mike Williams WR *
7 Ahmad Bradshaw RB
8 Jason Witten TE
9 Jahvid Best RB *
10 Shonn Greene RB *
11 Jermichael Finley TE *
12 Brandon Marshall WR
13 Dwayne Bowe WR
14 Ryan Mathews RB
*** Again, ignoring QBs, there are 13 players and 6 underperformed 3rd round value.

So just in these 2 DCs (in which the owners are some of the toughest NFFC competitors), 13 of 24 players, 54%, failed to meet 3rd round draft expectations.

So if this guy's strategy was to optimize the lone QB lineup spot each week by getting two very good QBs because he feels that the rest of the draft is largely luck-driven, who are we to say he's wrong? Heck, I love drafting teams too and often come away from the draft table very pleased with my teams. But then the crazy NFL season gets going and, go figure, they didn't check MY draft board and so a bunch of mid-round nobodies and underachievers breakout.

[Sandman62]

Sandman -- your post was one of the BEST writeups I have ever seen on an NFFC or NFBC board. Well researched and you clearly made the point that perhaps taking the 2 QB's early really could have helped a team. I'm guessing that you have won money over the course of time.

When 40% of a given set of players is going to be a bust -- that kind of shows you that relying on ADP is pointless. The object of this game is to get good players. Not to rely on ADP or where they "should" be picked. The "herd mentality" rarely works here.

Thanks Ken. I think people sometimes get confused though and believe that I don't have my own gut instincts and that I live solely by my numbers. Not true at all. But I do try to justify my opinions, that's all.

A few years ago, my son and I were fortunate to win both our Classic and Primetime leagues. But since then, only sporadic cashing and no main event or other titles. It's just so hard with all the randomness of breakout players that occurs after the first 3-5 rounds. No matter how much we love our teams on draft day, the eventual winners often have several players from mid-rounds or even the waiver wire. Yes, there's some skill in deciding which of those players to target and when, but there's also an awful lot of luck (not trying to stir up THAT whole old debate tho! ).

[DonnyG.]

Okay i pretty much get what you're saying sandman but i would STILL rather have a guy at a different position that fails or succeeds instead of taking a second qb in 3 rounds who might fail or succeed, but hey that's just me.