Early Season NFFC Draft Results

[David U Kennedy]

Oh wait I just noticed the number one spot got Foster, Stafford, Nicks. Thats a bit ridiculous. Those two teams will duke it out.

[jarooty]

Why is taking a target-hogging TE who is head-and-shoulders above his peers considered a round-1 reach, but taking stud RBs and QBs isn't?

Looking at last year's NFFC points scored:

QBs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 549 34.3 Brees
2 540 36.0 Rodgers
3 511 31.9 Brady
4 489 30.5 Stafford
5 468 29.2 Newton
6 408 25.5 Manning
7 393 24.6 Romo
8 388 24.3 Ryan
9 378 23.6 Rivers
10 350 21.9 Sanchez
11 332 20.8 Fitzpatrick
12 320 24.6 Vick
13 318 21.2 Roethlisberger
14 298 18.6 Flacco
* Most wouldn't dispute that the top 3 are round-1 worthy, and perhaps Stafford (though with healthier RBs this year, will DET throw as much?). Brady scored about 100 points more than Eli, who can probably be drafted a couple or few rounds later. Stafford scored about 100 points more than Romo/Ryan/Rivers, who can likely be drafted a couple rounds later also.

RBs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 371 23.2 Rice
2 329 22.0 McCoy
3 306 23.5 Foster
4 306 19.1 Jones-Drew
5 271 17.0 Sproles
6 246 16.4 Lynch
7 239 17.0 Mathews
8 232 14.5 Turner
9 227 14.2 Johnson
10 225 15.0 Jackson
11 224 14.0 Bush
12 223 18.6 Forte
13 221 14.7 Bush
14 211 21.1 Jackson
15 207 17.3 Peterson
* Of these, there are probably only 6 round-1 picks: Rice, McCoy, MJD, Foster, Mathews and CJohnson. Most owners probably expect 300+ points from an early-round-1 RB, and maybe 275+ from a late-round-1 pick. That's about 75-100 points more than RBs that can be drafted a round or two later, but nearly double the production (300 vs. 150 pts) that most RBs outside the top 25 provide.

WRs:
Rank Total PPG Player
Rank Total PPG Last
1 366 22.9 CJohnson
2 336 21.0 Welker
3 289 18.1 Cruz
4 284 17.8 JNelson
5 278 17.4 White
6 269 16.8 Fitzgerald
7 264 16.5 SSmith
8 264 16.5 Harvin
* How many of these will actually be drafted in the 1st round this year? I'd guess just CJ, Fitz and maybe White. If Welker settles his contract, then maybe him (though with all the mouths to feed in NE, maybe not). So that's 3 or 4. The only other one I can think of that might still have round 1 potential is Andre Johnson. So that makes 4 realistically (5 if you include Welker).

TEs:
Rank Total PPG Player
1 331 20.7 Gronkowski
2 295 21.1 Graham
3 216 13.5 Hernandez
4 210 13.1 Gonzalez
5 203 12.7 Witten
6 191 14.7 Pettigrew
7 184 11.5 Gates
8 181 11.3 VDavis
9 180 11.2 Finley
10 176 11.0 Keller
11 173 10.8 Celek
12 162 13.5 Winslow
13 156 11.1 FDavis
14 151 9.4 Gresham
* The top 2 outscored 3-5 by around 80-125 points and the 13th and 14th by double (300 vs. 150; hmmm, sound familiar? RBs??? Except with RBs, it was all the way down at the 30th ranked RB that we first saw a meager 150 points; whereas with TEs, the 13th and 14th owners in a 14-team league were stuck starting one of these! ). So with TEs, there were only 2 that were far above the rest, whereas with RBs there were 6 and with QBs 3 or 4. So there appears to have been the same gaps as QB and RB, yet with even fewer top players. That means someone who takes one of these TEs, assuming they provide similar production this year, is getting a huge advantage on 12 other owners in a 14-team league. Compare that to QBs and RBs, where the advantage is on just 10 and 8 owners, respectively.

That said, I do agree that there is still a stigma with TEs and the old assumption is that we can wait on them until mid-rounds - just like most owners did with Gronk and Graham last year. But how often do the top 2 TEs come from mid-rounds? I'm thinking not very often at all. (In 2010, the top 3 were Witten, Davis and Gates, with Davis not being an early TE pick; in 2009, Clark, Davis and Gates, who were all among the first TEs drafted.)

Now, an argument certainly can be made that the Saints' Bountygate and/or Brees' contract perhaps should scare folks away from Graham, and that the Pats have a lot more mouths to feed in the passing game this year so maybe a dropoff can be expected for Gronk too. But for anyone who still projects these two to lead their peers by the same amount as QBs and RBs, then I see no reason that it isn't time to start reconsidering our old opinions of TE drafting. We all know the NFL's become extremely pass-heavy. If we expect that to continue, why NOT start drafting scarce commodity TEs in round 1, just like we do QBs and RBs? Afterall, isn't that what fantasy football drafts are all about - gaining an advantage on our competition?

All I have to say to this is: SHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Awesome post.

[Sandman62]

Thank you. Unforunately, I DON'T see them lapping the field at their position again this year. But I can understand how those who do would draft Graham in round 1.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Let's put out a few more draft results for everyone to chew on since the momentum is picking before draft season. Here's a recent 14-team result:

NFFC 14-Team League
Round 1:
1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Ray Rice RB
1 3 LeSean McCoy RB
1 4 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 5 Chris Johnson RB
1 6 Calvin Johnson WR
1 7 Darren McFadden RB
1 8 Tom Brady QB
1 9 Ryan Mathews RB
1 10 Drew Brees QB
1 11 Wes Welker WR
1 12 DeMarco Murray RB
1 13 Matthew Stafford QB
1 14 Matt Forte RB

Round 2:
2 1 Trent Richardson RB
2 2 Jimmy Graham TE
2 3 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2 4 Larry Fitzgerald WR
2 5 Rob Gronkowski TE
2 6 Cam Newton QB
2 7 Darren Sproles RB
2 8 Julio Jones WR
2 9 Roddy White WR
2 10 Brandon Marshall WR
2 11 Adrian Peterson RB
2 12 Andre Johnson WR
2 13 Greg Jennings WR
2 14 Jamaal Charles RB

Round 3 (Third Round Reversal, 14-1, serpentine after this round):
3 1 Marshawn Lynch RB
3 2 Steven Jackson RB
3 3 Victor Cruz WR
3 4 A.J. Green WR
3 5 Hakeem Nicks WR
3 6 Jordy Nelson WR
3 7 Percy Harvin WR
3 8 Michael Vick QB
3 9 Aaron Hernandez TE
3 10 Fred Jackson RB
3 11 Doug Martin RB
3 12 Steve Smith WR
3 13 Marques Colston WR
3 14 Dez Bryant WR

Round 4:
4 1 Brandon Lloyd WR
4 2 Matt Ryan QB
4 3 Demaryius Thomas WR
4 4 Ahmad Bradshaw RB
4 5 Antonio Brown WR
4 6 Tony Romo QB
4 7 Jeremy Maclin WR
4 8 Reggie Bush RB
4 9 Miles Austin WR
4 10 Michael Turner RB
4 11 Philip Rivers QB
4 12 Eli Manning QB
4 13 Dwayne Bowe WR
4 14 Mike Wallace WR

Round 5:
5 1 Vincent Jackson WR
5 2 DeSean Jackson WR
5 3 Stevie Johnson WR
5 4 Stevan Ridley RB
5 5 Frank Gore RB
5 6 Willis McGahee RB
5 7 Eric Decker WR
5 8 Antonio Gates TE
5 9 Isaac Redman RB
5 10 Peyton Manning QB
5 11 Jason Witten TE
5 12 Shonn Greene RB
5 13 Roy Helu RB
5 14 Jermichael Finley TE

Round 6:
6 1 Robert Griffin III QB
6 2 Brandon Pettigrew TE
6 3 Vernon Davis TE
6 4 Torrey Smith WR
6 5 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
6 6 Ben Roethlisberger QB
6 7 C.J. Spiller RB
6 8 Jonathan Stewart RB
6 9 Kenny Britt WR
6 10 Sidney Rice WR
6 11 Beanie Wells RB
6 12 Tony Gonzalez TE
6 13 Peyton Hillis RB
6 14 Denarius Moore WR

Thoughts?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's one more:

NFFC 14-Team League
Round 1:
1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Ray Rice RB
1 3 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 4 LeSean McCoy RB
1 5 Tom Brady QB
1 6 Drew Brees QB
1 7 Calvin Johnson WR
1 8 Chris Johnson RB
1 9 Ryan Mathews RB
1 10 Darren McFadden RB
1 11 Wes Welker WR
1 12 Jimmy Graham TE
1 13 Rob Gronkowski TE
1 14 Larry Fitzgerald WR

Round 2:
2 1 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2 2 Matt Forte RB
2 3 Julio Jones WR
2 4 DeMarco Murray RB
2 5 Trent Richardson RB
2 6 Matthew Stafford QB
2 7 Roddy White WR
2 8 Adrian Peterson RB
2 9 Andre Johnson WR
2 10 Darren Sproles RB
2 11 Doug Martin RB
2 12 Fred Jackson RB
2 13 Cam Newton QB
2 14 Brandon Marshall WR

Round 3 (Third Round Reversal, 14-1, straight serpentine after this round):
3 1 A.J. Green WR
3 2 Greg Jennings WR
3 3 Marshawn Lynch RB
3 4 Jamaal Charles RB
3 5 Percy Harvin WR
3 6 Victor Cruz WR
3 7 Steven Jackson RB
3 8 Ahmad Bradshaw RB
3 9 Jordy Nelson WR
3 10 Hakeem Nicks WR
3 11 Jeremy Maclin WR
3 12 Steve Smith WR
3 13 Marques Colston WR
3 14 Reggie Bush RB

Round 4:
4 1 Dez Bryant WR
4 2 Vincent Jackson WR
4 3 Brandon Lloyd WR
4 4 Antonio Gates TE
4 5 Eric Decker WR
4 6 Michael Turner RB
4 7 Demaryius Thomas WR
4 8 Philip Rivers QB
4 9 Aaron Hernandez TE
4 10 Michael Vick QB
4 11 Tony Romo QB
4 12 Matt Ryan QB
4 13 Eli Manning QB
4 14 Willis McGahee RB

Round 5:
5 1 Peyton Manning QB
5 2 Frank Gore RB
5 3 Mike Wallace WR
5 4 Miles Austin WR
5 5 Dwayne Bowe WR
5 6 Isaac Redman RB
5 7 Ben Tate RB
5 8 Stevie Johnson WR
5 9 Vernon Davis TE
5 10 Jason Witten TE
5 11 Ben Roethlisberger QB
5 12 DeSean Jackson WR
5 13 Jermichael Finley TE
5 14 Antonio Brown WR

Round 6:
6 1 Fred Davis TE
6 2 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
6 3 Peyton Hillis RB
6 4 Robert Griffin III QB
6 5 Shonn Greene RB
6 6 Roy Helu RB
6 7 Jay Cutler QB
6 8 Brandon Pettigrew TE
6 9 Jonathan Stewart RB
6 10 C.J. Spiller RB
6 11 Stevan Ridley RB
6 12 Pierre Garcon WR
6 13 Darrius Heyward-Bey WR
6 14 Ryan Fitzpatrick QB

Thoughts?

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's a 12-teamer to chew on over the weekend:

NFFC 12-Team League:
Round 1:
1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Ray Rice RB
1 3 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 4 LeSean McCoy RB
1 5 Tom Brady QB
1 6 Calvin Johnson WR
1 7 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 8 Ryan Mathews RB
1 9 Chris Johnson RB
1 10 Drew Brees QB
1 11 Darren McFadden RB
1 12 Roddy White WR

Round 2:
2 1 Matt Forte RB
2 2 Jimmy Graham TE
2 3 DeMarco Murray RB
2 4 Matthew Stafford QB
2 5 Rob Gronkowski TE
2 6 Adrian Peterson RB
2 7 Wes Welker WR
2 8 Jamaal Charles RB
2 9 Darren Sproles RB
2 10 Jordy Nelson WR
2 11 Steve Smith WR
2 12 Larry Fitzgerald WR

Round 3 (Third Round Reversal, 12-1, then serpentine after this round):
3 1 Julio Jones WR
3 2 Andre Johnson WR
3 3 Steven Jackson RB
3 4 A.J. Green WR
3 5 Cam Newton QB
3 6 Marshawn Lynch RB
3 7 Greg Jennings WR
3 8 Hakeem Nicks WR
3 9 Brandon Marshall WR
3 10 Fred Jackson RB
3 11 Michael Vick QB
3 12 Victor Cruz WR

Round 4:
4 1 Trent Richardson RB
4 2 Eric Decker WR
4 3 Ahmad Bradshaw RB
4 4 Doug Martin RB
4 5 Percy Harvin WR
4 6 Reggie Bush RB
4 7 Mike Wallace WR
4 8 Marques Colston WR
4 9 Dez Bryant WR
4 10 Jeremy Maclin WR
4 11 Demaryius Thomas WR
4 12 Aaron Hernandez TE

Round 5:
5 1 Brandon Lloyd WR
5 2 Miles Austin WR
5 3 Stevie Johnson WR
5 4 Vincent Jackson WR
5 5 Antonio Brown WR
5 6 Dwayne Bowe WR
5 7 Antonio Gates TE
5 8 Michael Turner RB
5 9 DeSean Jackson WR
5 10 Jason Witten TE
5 11 Isaac Redman RB
5 12 Vernon Davis TE

Round 6:
6 1 Peyton Manning QB
6 2 Stevan Ridley RB
6 3 Shonn Greene RB
6 4 Matt Ryan QB
6 5 Jermichael Finley TE
6 6 Philip Rivers QB
6 7 Eli Manning QB
6 8 Frank Gore RB
6 9 BenJarvus Green-Ellis RB
6 10 Torrey Smith WR
6 11 Tony Romo QB
6 12 Kevin Smith RB

Thoughts?

[CoMoHusker]

T-Rich at 4.1. Looks like that knee is going to start to scare a lot of people.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Last one before Friday Happy Hour in Iola:

NFFC 12-Team League
Round 1:
1 1 Arian Foster RB
1 2 Ray Rice RB
1 3 LeSean McCoy RB
1 4 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 5 Ryan Mathews RB
1 6 Calvin Johnson WR
1 7 Drew Brees QB
1 8 Chris Johnson RB
1 9 Tom Brady QB
1 10 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
1 11 Jimmy Graham TE
1 12 Matt Forte RB

Round 2:
2 1 Rob Gronkowski TE
2 2 Darren McFadden RB
2 3 Roddy White WR
2 4 Trent Richardson RB
2 5 DeMarco Murray RB
2 6 Larry Fitzgerald WR
2 7 Cam Newton QB
2 8 Julio Jones WR
2 9 Jordy Nelson WR
2 10 Matthew Stafford QB
2 11 Wes Welker WR
2 12 Marshawn Lynch RB

Round 3 (Third Round Reversal, 12-1, serpentine every round after this):
3 1 A.J. Green WR
3 2 Doug Martin RB
3 3 Percy Harvin WR
3 4 Steve Smith WR
3 5 Michael Vick QB
3 6 Brandon Marshall WR
3 7 Darren Sproles RB
3 8 Greg Jennings WR
3 9 Jamaal Charles RB
3 10 Adrian Peterson RB
3 11 Marques Colston WR
3 12 Victor Cruz WR

Round 4:
4 1 Andre Johnson WR
4 2 Antonio Gates TE
4 3 Fred Jackson RB
4 4 Steven Jackson RB
4 5 Aaron Hernandez TE
4 6 Willis McGahee RB
4 7 Frank Gore RB
4 8 Antonio Brown WR
4 9 Ahmad Bradshaw RB
4 10 Michael Turner RB
4 11 Hakeem Nicks WR
4 12 Peyton Hillis RB

Round 5:
5 1 Matt Ryan QB
5 2 Tony Romo QB
5 3 Philip Rivers QB
5 4 Vernon Davis TE
5 5 Dez Bryant WR
5 6 Jeremy Maclin WR
5 7 Reggie Bush RB
5 8 Demaryius Thomas WR
5 9 Stevie Johnson WR
5 10 Miles Austin WR
5 11 Eli Manning QB
5 12 Dwayne Bowe WR

Round 6:
6 1 Mike Wallace WR
6 2 Eric Decker WR
6 3 Brandon Lloyd WR
6 4 Vincent Jackson WR
6 5 C.J. Spiller RB
6 6 DeSean Jackson WR
6 7 Shonn Greene RB
6 8 Jermichael Finley TE
6 9 Jonathan Stewart RB
6 10 Fred Davis TE
6 11 Nate Washington WR
6 12 Kevin Smith RB

Thoughts?

[CoMoHusker]

Great WR value in round 6 above. Wallace, Lloyd, VJax, Decker, and D.Jackson could pay off big time in those spots.

[CALI CARTEL]

Great WR value in round 6 above. Wallace, Lloyd, VJax, Decker, and D.Jackson could pay off big time in those spots.

Team 1 has Foster, Marshawn, Cruz, Andre, Bowe, Wallace -- that's a decent 6, wondering what he ended up with at QB/TE tho.