An Early Look At My Top 3 Round Draft Board For 2013

[Tom Kessenich]

The 2012 NFL season may not be over but it’s not too early to look ahead to 2013 and see how fantasy drafts may shape up. There’s obviously a lot to be determined, including playoff performances and the draft, but this seems like a good time to begin mapping out next year’s draft strategy. So here’s my early (emphasis on the word “early”) look at how I’d attack the first three rounds of 2013 in a 12-team format.

FIRST ROUND
1. Adrian Peterson RB Min.
2. Arian Foster RB Hou.
3. Ray Rice RB Bal.
4. Calvin Johnson WR Det
5. Doug Martin RB TB
6. LeSean McCoy RB Phi.
7. C.J. Spiller RB Buf.
8. Marshawn Lynch RB Sea.
9. Aaron Rodgers QB GB
10. A.J. Green WR Cin.
11. Drew Brees QB NO
12. Brandon Marshall WR Chi.

THOUGHTS: I won’t argue with those who put Foster first but given what he’s shown this season, Peterson is my No. 1 overall pick without question. The first round should be much deeper in terms of running backs than we saw in 2012. In fact, this looks like a more traditional fantasy first round with 7-8 RBs likely going there. I have seven currently on my list but could easily bump Jamaal Charles and/or Trent Richardson to first-round status by the start of next season given their talent and potential. The only non-RB I currently will consider in the Top 5 is Megatron. Elite QBs still carry monster value in my opinion so I’d love to get Rodgers, Brees (or Tom Brady) late in the first round. I have Marshall as WR3 right now and he’s certainly deserving, but it’s possible I lift Dez Bryant to that spot by the time next season begins. He’s become a superstar.

SECOND ROUND
13. Tom Brady QB NE
14. Dez Bryant WR Dal.
15. Jamaal Charles RB KC
16. Trent Richardson RB Cle.
17. Julio Jones WR Atl.
18. Demaryius Thomas WR Den.
19. Robert Griffin III QB Was.
20. Rob Gronkowski TE NE
21. Percy Harvin WR Min.
22. Maurice Jones-Drew RB Jax.
23. Matt Ryan QB Atl.
24. Jimmy Graham TE NO

THOUGHTS: Things are likely going to get very interesting in Round 2 next year. Again, my strong belief in the value of elite fantasy QBs has me listing three in this round and one could argue Peyton Manning and Cam Newton are worthy of consideration here as well. If the Chiefs fire Romeo Crennel it wouldn’t surprise me to see Jamaal Charles finish as a Top 5 overall fantasy player next season so he’s looking like a massive second-round value selection. A healthy Rob Gronkowski has WR1 upside so I still believe in him as a second-round pick. Ditto for Jimmy Graham. Julio Jones didn’t quite ascend to elite fantasy status this season but I think it’s just a matter of time before he does. MJD carries some risk but he’s still a very talented player when healthy and one I’d be very happy to land in the second round, especially as a RB2.

THIRD ROUND
25. Peyton Manning QB Den.
26. Cam Newton QB Car.
27. Wes Welker WR NE
28. Alfred Morris RB Was.
29. Andre Johnson WR Hou.
30. Randall Cobb WR GB
31. Reggie Wayne WR Ind.
32. Victor Cruz WR NYG
33. DeMarco Murray RB Dal.
34. Vincent Jackson WR TB
35. Roddy White, WR Atl.
36. Darren Sproles RB NO

THOUGHTS: Manning proved he’s back to being an elite QB and Newton has finished this season like one so I believe in him as well. Assuming Welker stays in New England he’ll remain a PPR stud. Plenty of other quality WR options to target in this round including Wayne, who shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon, and the electric Cobb, who’s poised for bigger and better things going forward with the Packers. Murray is a Top 10 fantasy RB when healthy but durability issues lower his value in my estimation. Sproles is PPR gold and as a vital component in the explosive Saints’ offense that leads me to slot him just ahead of Matt Forte at the present time.

So what does everyone think?

[BillyWaz]

I realize there is risk and not really a fan of either, but if CJ2K and McFadden are available in the 4th.....I would have a hard time passing as an RB #2.

The rest of it looks logical except for MJD. He didn't want to even sign there, then missed 10 games (In think)...I can't see him as an option for next season anywhere inside the first 4 rounds (and that is if he doesn't retire).

[Tom Kessenich]

I realize there is risk and not really a fan of either, but if CJ2K and McFadden are available in the 4th.....I would have a hard time passing as an RB #2.

I like CJ in the fourth for sure. He ended up being a solid RB2 this season and I think he'll remain at that level. I think if you paired him with a quality RB1 and pursued an upside RB3 you'd be in real nice shape at the position next season. I'm not a big McFadden guy due to his massive durability issues but I agree he's a potential value pick in Round 4 or beyond if he can somehow stay healthy.

Also agree that MJD is a big risk. I debated where to slot him. But he did play well before getting hurt this season and the Jags have some talent at WR with Shorts and Blackmon. Signing Tebow could impact his TD potential but it's not like Tebow hurt Willis McGahee last season in Denver and MJD is far superior to McGahee in terms of talent in my opinion. Ideally, I'd like to get MJD as a RB2; I'd be less inclined to take him as my RB1.

[Money]

Nice list Tom. I'd be happy to get Stafford as my QB in the 4th round or later. He had only Calvin Johnson to work with this year. Hell be worth 5,000 yards again next year if they re-stock the receiving corps.

I loved Harvin this year up until he got hurt. That guys is a monster when healthy. He will be high risk, very high reward next season. Because of that risk, I'm not sure I could pull the trigger in the second round.

I agree with you on AP, although right now I wouldn't consider anyone else, not even Foster.

[boutrous11]

I think Ray Rice is actually pretty risky to take at 3... i really don't know who the next best is after my top 3 (AP, Arian, Calvin) are gone... i want to say AJ Green is a safer pick than all of the rbs that will come off soon after that (Rice, McCoy, Lynch, Martin, Spiller...) You know what you are getting for sure w/ him...

[KenGill]

Drew Brees should be your # 1 overall pick, not to take away from the great season of AP.... Brees is the best player in football and has been for at least 5 years. 39 TD's with one game left to play. I count exactly ONE bad fantasy performance by him all year (that Thursday night game where he threw 5 INT's). Compare that with 3 bad weeks from Peterson. Brees never gets hurt, plays on a team with multiple weapons and the Saints won't have the bounty situation hanging over their heads next year. He threw at least 2 TD passes in 12 out of the 15 weeks. That there is your number one pick.

[JETS SB]

I can almost guaranty that Calvin Johnson will be the number 1 pick in a lot of NFFC drafts, if not actually being the consensus #1. Considering he only had 5 TDs and is the top scoring non-QB in fantasy points, he will be my number 1 pick. His numbers this year are sick, having over 400 more receiving yards than any other wide receiver, while being double and triple teamed all season. Imagine if they had a 2nd receiver. As far as the QBs, there are just too many good ones for me to pick one in the top 5, though if I were to pick one, it would be Brady.