NFFC Early Season Draft Results

[Tom Kessenich]

We've been talking about this on our Sirius show but I think we can say there are two strong trends in particular that we've seen which will hold true throughout the year:

1. RBs will dominate the first round again. Feels like the 90s all over again.

2. QBs will drop.

With so much depth at QB this year the elite options are dropping into the 2nd and 3rd rounds and waiting until the 5th or 6th can pay dividends too. Ryan, Wilson, Stafford and Luck all went in the 5th round in the above draft and all have elite QB1 upside. So does a healhy RG3 who went in the 6th round.

[boutrous11]

QBs won't drop nearly as much in 14 team non Draft Champions leagues.

[Tom Kessenich]

QBs won't drop nearly as much in 14 team non Draft Champions leagues.

We'll see. I think the depth is so good even in 14-team leagues you'll still them dropping. That was definitely the case in the RotoWire mock Greg and I did this week although it should be noted QBs almost always drop in "Experts" league drafts. But that will be something to watch once we start having 14-team drafts.

[JETS SB]

Personally my draft strategy for NFFC DC drafts are completely different than standard FAAB drafts. I am in the draft posted above from the 7 slot. My first 6 picks:

M Lynch
A Morris
T Brady
W Welker
D Amendola
E Manning

I think we all know this first 6 isn't going to be anyone's strategy in the live drafts..

[Tom Kessenich]

The DCs are different but I recall last season people insisting that the emphasis on taking the elite QBs early was just a product of the DC format and wouldn't carry over to the non-DC drafts. I disagreed and it turned out that trend did continue. I definitely believe the same thing will happen here with the two points I listed. There's no doubt in my mind that most of the drafts we'll see in all formats will have the first round dominated by RBs. I expect that to continue regardless of format. I also believe the depth at QB will result in that position being lessened in value early as far as the elite options are concerned.

We'll have a lot of fun tracking all this until the start of the season but if I was a betting man I'd bet on both of these early trends holding firm throughout the year.

[JETS SB]

The DCs are different but I recall last season people insisting that the emphasis on taking the elite QBs early was just a product of the DC format and wouldn't carry over to the non-DC drafts. I disagreed and it turned out that trend did continue. I definitely believe the same thing will happen here with the two points I listed. There's no doubt in my mind that most of the drafts we'll see in all formats will have the first round dominated by RBs. I expect that to continue regardless of format. I also believe the depth at QB will result in that position being lessened in value early as far as the elite options are concerned.

We'll have a lot of fun tracking all this until the start of the season but if I was a betting man I'd bet on both of these early trends holding firm throughout the year.

I agree.. I hadn't seen any of the early draft results before starting this draft. I was ready to take Brady in the 2nd round, then saw Morris there and wanted to solidify my running backs right there. I never thought Brady would be available in the 3rd round. I understand this is a 12 team format, but just by the fact that Brady/Rodgers/Brees all were 1st round picks last year and have dropped to the 2nd and 3rd rounds shows the trend you are speaking of. But, that being said, I may have taken Brady in the 2nd round of the live draft, instead of Morris.

[Tom Kessenich]

The DCs are different but I recall last season people insisting that the emphasis on taking the elite QBs early was just a product of the DC format and wouldn't carry over to the non-DC drafts. I disagreed and it turned out that trend did continue. I definitely believe the same thing will happen here with the two points I listed. There's no doubt in my mind that most of the drafts we'll see in all formats will have the first round dominated by RBs. I expect that to continue regardless of format. I also believe the depth at QB will result in that position being lessened in value early as far as the elite options are concerned.

We'll have a lot of fun tracking all this until the start of the season but if I was a betting man I'd bet on both of these early trends holding firm throughout the year.

I agree.. I hadn't seen any of the early draft results before starting this draft. I was ready to take Brady in the 2nd round, then saw Morris there and wanted to solidify my running backs right there. I never thought Brady would be available in the 3rd round. I understand this is a 12 team format, but just by the fact that Brady/Rodgers/Brees all were 1st round picks last year and have dropped to the 2nd and 3rd rounds shows the trend you are speaking of. But, that being said, I may have taken Brady in the 2nd round of the live draft, instead of Morris.

I nearly took Rodgers in the 2nd round of the RotoWire draft this week. The only reason I didn't was because I believed QBs would drop (which they did) and I'd be able to get a good QB1 later (I ended up with Romo). I can't fault anyone for taking an elite QB in the second because those guys are elite for a reason but with so much depth at the position and with QBs showing a trend of dropping in drafts I anticipate holding off on the position in most, and perhaps all, of my drafts this year regardless of league size. Now obviously how a draft unfolds can result in an adjustment on any strategy.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Let's start out the week with some draft results from another DC league. Adrian Peterson tops the draft board in this one. Enjoy and remember you can jump into any of these 35-round drafts at any time. They have a guaranteed $15,000 grand prize. Good luck all.

NFFC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Adrian Peterson RB
1 2 Doug Martin RB
1 3 Arian Foster RB
1 4 Calvin Johnson WR
1 5 Ray Rice RB
1 6 Jamaal Charles RB
1 7 LeSean McCoy RB
1 8 Aaron Rodgers QB
1 9 C.J. Spiller RB
1 10 A.J. Green WR
1 11 Trent Richardson RB
1 12 Marshawn Lynch RB

Round 2:
2 1 Brandon Marshall WR
2 2 Julio Jones WR
2 3 Demaryius Thomas WR
2 4 Matt Forte RB
2 5 Dez Bryant WR
2 6 Steven Jackson RB
2 7 Alfred Morris RB
2 8 Drew Brees QB
2 9 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2 10 Darren McFadden RB
2 11 DeMarco Murray RB
2 12 Jimmy Graham TE

Round 3:
3 1 Randall Cobb WR
3 2 Percy Harvin WR
3 3 Frank Gore RB
3 4 Chris Johnson RB
3 5 Ryan Mathews RB
3 6 Larry Fitzgerald WR
3 7 Roddy White WR
3 8 Andre Johnson WR
3 9 Reggie Bush RB
3 10 Darren Sproles RB
3 11 David Wilson RB
3 12 Danny Amendola WR

Round 4:
4 1 Wes Welker WR
4 2 Tom Brady QB
4 3 Peyton Manning QB
4 4 Rob Gronkowski TE
4 5 Victor Cruz WR
4 6 Eric Decker WR
4 7 Reggie Wayne WR
4 8 Montee Ball RB
4 9 Aaron Hernandez TE
4 10 Vincent Jackson WR
4 11 Jordy Nelson WR
4 12 Stevan Ridley RB

Round 5:
5 1 Matt Ryan QB
5 2 Colin Kaepernick QB
5 3 Marques Colston WR
5 4 Michael Crabtree WR
5 5 Hakeem Nicks WR
5 6 Jason Witten TE
5 7 Cam Newton QB
5 8 Dwayne Bowe WR
5 9 Lamar Miller RB
5 10 Mike Wallace WR
5 11 Pierre Garcon WR
5 12 Chris Ivory RB

Round 6:
6 1 Eddie Lacy RB
6 2 Tony Gonzalez TE
6 3 Greg Jennings WR
6 4 Matthew Stafford QB
6 5 Vick Ballard RB
6 6 Torrey Smith WR
6 7 Robert Griffin III QB
6 8 James Jones WR
6 9 Giovani Bernard RB
6 10 Le'Veon Bell RB
6 11 Andrew Luck QB
6 12 Vernon Davis TE

Thoughts?

[Tom Kessenich]

Two QBs in the first two rounds.

Eight QBs in Rounds 4-6.

The trend continues.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Let's get back to the draft results and keep folks working on their own draft lists. Enjoy.

NFBC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Adrian Peterson RB
1 2 Calvin Johnson WR
1 3 Doug Martin RB
1 4 Arian Foster RB
1 5 Jamaal Charles RB
1 6 Ray Rice RB
1 7 Brandon Marshall WR
1 8 Marshawn Lynch RB
1 9 Trent Richardson RB
1 10 C.J. Spiller RB
1 11 LeSean McCoy RB
1 12 Chris Johnson RB

Round 2:
2 1 Jimmy Graham TE
2 2 A.J. Green WR
2 3 Alfred Morris RB
2 4 Matt Forte RB
2 5 Frank Gore RB
2 6 Dez Bryant WR
2 7 Aaron Rodgers QB
2 8 Maurice Jones-Drew RB
2 9 Steven Jackson RB
2 10 Julio Jones WR
2 11 Percy Harvin WR
2 12 Peyton Manning QB

Round 3:
3 1 Reggie Bush RB
3 2 Drew Brees QB
3 3 Demaryius Thomas WR
3 4 Darren McFadden RB
3 5 Tom Brady QB
3 6 Darren Sproles RB
3 7 Andre Johnson WR
3 8 Larry Fitzgerald WR
3 9 DeMarco Murray RB
3 10 Randall Cobb WR
3 11 Rob Gronkowski TE
3 12 Ryan Mathews RB

Round 4:
4 1 David Wilson RB
4 2 Roddy White WR
4 3 Cam Newton QB
4 4 Reggie Wayne WR
4 5 Aaron Hernandez TE
4 6 Stevan Ridley RB
4 7 Vincent Jackson WR
4 8 Victor Cruz WR
4 9 Michael Crabtree WR
4 10 Wes Welker WR
4 11 Jordy Nelson WR
4 12 Marques Colston WR

Round 5:
5 1 Mikel Leshoure RB
5 2 Danny Amendola WR
5 3 Lamar Miller RB
5 4 Hakeem Nicks WR
5 5 Dwayne Bowe WR
5 6 James Jones WR
5 7 Eric Decker WR
5 8 Montee Ball RB
5 9 Jason Witten TE
5 10 Le'Veon Bell RB
5 11 Russell Wilson QB
5 12 Danario Alexander WR

Round 6:
6 1 Antonio Brown WR
6 2 Matt Ryan QB
6 3 Chris Ivory RB
6 4 Mike Wallace WR
6 5 Colin Kaepernick QB
6 6 Steve Smith WR
6 7 Jeremy Maclin WR
6 8 Greg Jennings WR
6 9 Pierre Garcon WR
6 10 Tony Gonzalez TE
6 11 Vick Ballard RB
6 12 Robert Griffin III QB

Thoughts?