NFFC Early Season Draft Results

[JETS SB]

50 percent chance more that a WR plays 16 games compared to a RB. Roughly of course

So, if this is the case, you should be drafting reliable running backs early since there are so few of them. You are making a case for drafting running backs early, not wide receivers. If you are drafting 4 or 5 wide receivers before you take your #2 running back who is likely not a F/T back, you better hope that your RB1 doesn't get hurt, since they are so unreliable.

[JETS SB]

Last Friday I start out the DC draft with 4 RB's in the first 6 rounds?

McCoy
Lynch
Miller
Lacy

Then I was still able to get Andre and Jordy. I actually liked this start and while other people were taking shots at RB in rounds 7-11 I was able to get guys that I know will be on the field this year.

In a draft a week earlier I went:

TRich
Dez
Andre
Jordy
Leveon
Torry

In this draft I have to take shots at RB3 with guys like Mendy and Ben Tate in rounds 8-10. It could be explosive if Foster goes down but I don't like this start any better than the other. I think the strong WR start was much better when it was only .5 ppr for RB's. I guess there is more than one way to do it but when I looked back at my DC's from last year I personally seemed to do better going RB's heavy to start even though when I drafted I seemed to like the early WR teams better.


Wayne

Wayne, believe it or not, I agree with you!!! This is a first.

[David U Kennedy]

Good points Coltsfan. There are many ways to win these drafts. I hope my draft strategy will be a minority one. All the better for me. Murray, McFadden, Mathews rounds 3-5? Give me Roddy, Nelson, and Cobb.

Put me in the group of guys with "bad starts" to their draft, because I always go RB heavy. Always felt that it was the best, most consistent way to compete and win in these DC's. I guess I could be wrong and have wasted all those drafts.

Humor me. I respect your opinion on these DC's. So on paper I start a team ........
1. Calvin
2. Dem. Thomas
3. DMC
4. Murray
5. Mathews
6. Stafford
7. Britt
8. Vereen
9. Ingram
10. Finley

Would you consider that RB heavy? If so, does that team look much worse to you than a team who didn't go RB heavy? Obviously we are in June and there is a long ways to go. Guys lose jobs, win jobs and get injured. At the time when you are passing on those guys or another RB it might feel safe to you, but it's all about team construction. In the end what does the team look like? Ballard as a #2 RB I don't think works. Looks even worse now that Bradshaw looks like he is about to sign. That team has to get lucky that he took a handcuff RB of a starter who gets injured during the year (early preferably before bye weeks). Plenty of good #2 and #3 WR's out there later that will put up a big game any given week. Can't say the same about back up RB's where those #2 and #3 WR's go......

Actually your not far off. I like your strategy. Stud Wrs to start then 3 upside Rbs. You look pretty well balanced. My difference would be not to trust Murray and McFadden. I passed on Murray and went Sproles in 4th. Sproles a lot safer in my eyes. Staff is nice but I went Rodgers in the 2nd. I don't like Rbs like McFadden. Too tall and unpredictable what you will get from them year to year. PROBABILITY my friend!! Give me Shifty short RBS who are young. Brandon Jacobs, Christian Okoye, McFadden, Murray, don't translate well when it comes to playing 16 games. Eric Dickerson is the only one I can remember doing it well in his career.

[David U Kennedy]

50 percent chance more that a WR plays 16 games compared to a RB. Roughly of course

So, if this is the case, you should be drafting reliable running backs early since there are so few of them. You are making a case for drafting running backs early, not wide receivers. If you are drafting 4 or 5 wide receivers before you take your #2 running back who is likely not a F/T back, you better hope that your RB1 doesn't get hurt, since they are so unreliable.

Draft according to Value early. Don't grab Rbs just because.

[RiFF]

Wow...after reading the last couple pages...I'm screwed...where were you guys before I started drafting!!

[Coltsfan]

[quote="Coltsfan"

Wayne, believe it or not, I agree with you!!! This is a first.

It was bound to happen - we just needed to get to enough posts.... Just kidding...


Wayne

[Coltsfan]

Wow...after reading the last couple pages...I'm screwed...where were you guys before I started drafting!!

What are you talking about Rich? You have only drafted one team this year. It just happens that you entered that same team into 35 leagues so far lol.


Wayne

[BigBlueNation]

And to think I thought the best strategy was to draft the best players available while establishing a good core and hope they stay healthy. After reading this RB vs WR, round vs round, stuff. I'm headed back to the drawing board.

Wayne, before you chime in, I know, I know, I know, I know,,,,,,you've been telling me for years to get back to the drawing board.

[Sandman62]

I want the upside and I'm not worried about finishing last.
Wayne

As you know Wayne, that's been my DC downfall - avoiding risk and ended up with a mediocre team where all my players NEED to hit my projections to have a chance.

My motto this year?

[Sandman62]

Good points Coltsfan. There are many ways to win these drafts. I hope my draft strategy will be a minority one. All the better for me. Murray, McFadden, Mathews rounds 3-5? Give me Roddy, Nelson, and Cobb.

Using last year's ADP vs. Actual stats, here's how that strategy worked. Here are the top 75 RBs drafted after round 5 last year, which yielded just 5 usable RBs. Only one of them (Spiller) broke 200 points.

IMO, that strategy worked better a few years ago before the NFL decided that fans need to see more passing and scoring and relaxed the rules. But in this era, the odds of finding usable RBs this late are very slim, which is why we're seeing so many RBs drafted in the first few rounds now - they're at a steep premium in order to avoid this!

# ADP Last First Team Pts
1 6.4 Helu Roy WAS
* 2 6.5 Spiller C.J. BUF 216.9
* 3 6.7 McGahee Willis DEN 143.2
4 6.7 Redman Isaac PIT 84.1
5 6.11 Stewart Jonathan CAR 78.3
6 6.11 Wells Beanie ARI 56.5
7 7.0 Hillis Peyton KC
* 8 7.5 Ridley Stevan NE 179.6
9 7.10 Best Jahvid DET
10 7.10 Starks James GB
11 8.0 Brown Donald IND 68
12 8.0 Tate Ben HOU 51.2
13 8.3 Williams DeAngelo CAR 104.3
14 8.4 Bush Michael CHI 87.4
15 8.4 Ingram Mark NO 82.2
16 8.12 Thomas Pierre NO 113
17 9.4 Williams Ryan ARI
18 9.6 Wilson David NYG 48.5
19 9.10 Gerhart Toby MIN
20 9.10 Blount LeGarrette TB
* 21 9.12 Leshoure Mikel DET 160.9
22 9.13 Smith Kevin DET 41.9
23 10.10 Jones Felix DAL 118
24 10.11 Thomas Daniel MIA 85.1
25 10.13 Rodgers Jacquizz ATL 122.1
26 11.2 Hillman Ronnie DEN 50.1
27 11.6 Vereen Shane NE 67.2
28 12.2 Pead Isaiah STL
29 13.1 Royster Evan WAS 44.4
30 13.5 Goodson Mike OAK 59.7
31 13.5 Hightower Tim WAS
32 13.12 Scott Bernard CIN
33 13.12 Green Alex GB 76.9
34 14.0 Mendenhall Rashard PIT
35 14.1 Jennings Rashad JAC 73.3
36 14.7 Tolbert Mike CAR 87.6
37 15.3 Jacobs Brandon SF
38 15.4 Carter Delone IND
39 15.9 Hunter Kendall SF 64.1
40 16.1 Benson Cedric GB 54.5
41 16.7 Turbin Robert SEA 63
42 17.4 McKnight Joe NYJ
43 18.0 James LaMichael SF
44 18.7 McCluster Dexter KC 100.7
45 18.12 Hardesty Montario CLE
46 19.0 Dwyer Jonathan PIT 89.9
47 19.5 Jones Taiwan OAK
48 20.2 Miller Lamar MIA
49 20.7 Woodhead Danny NE 129.5
51 20.13 Moreno Knowshon DEN 83.4
52 21.2 Lewis Dion PHI
53 21.3 Ringer Javon TEN
54 21.4 Snelling Jason ATL 55.1
55 21.5 Pierce Bernard BAL 48.3
50 21.10 Rainey Chris PIT
56 22.0 McClain Le'Ron SD
57 22.0 White Johnny BUF
58 22.3 Ware D.J. NYG
59 22.3 Washington Leon SEA
60 23.3 Brinkley Curtis SD
61 23.7 Reece Marcel OAK 128.9
62 23.8 Ballard Vick IND 108
63 23.8 Kuhn John GB
* 64 24.4 Morris Alfred WAS 196
65 24.7 Powell Bilal NYJ 82.5
66 24.10 Ball Lance DEN
67 24.11 Saine Brandon GB
68 25.4 Ivory Chris NO
69 25.8 Tanner Phillip DAL
70 25.11 Casey James HOU 80.9
71 25.13 Stephens-Howling LaRod ARI 84.7
72 26.4 Fannin Mario DEN
73 26.5 Allen Anthony BAL
74 26.6 Clay Charles MIA 51.2
75 26.6 Slaton Steve MIA