NFFC Early Season Draft Results

[Coltsfan]

Who will catch the ball in Pitt if not Brown??? Is Big Ben going to throw for less than 2500 yards this year? Someone has to catch it. If not Brown then who is the guy to own? And David I understand you're not a numbers guy so this isn't necessarily for you.

In 2010 Pitt WR's had 226 receptions for 3210 yards and 16 TD's. They also had 68/757/4 to TE's.

In 2011 Pitt WR's had 193/2491/15 with TE's having 81/875/10

Let's pretend that Big Ben totally tanks this year and he put up 250 receptions to WR's and TE's with an average of 12 yards per reception which is well below historical numbers. That would mean that WR's and TE's would have 3000 yards to divy up between them.

The averages TD's to the WR's and TE's over the past 2 years is about 22.5. Let's say they get 20 this year.

Who is going to get this production. Someone has to. You can't just say that nobody will. Unless you think that Big Ben is going to put up Mark Sanchez type numbers this year.....

Let's look at Brown.

2011 - 69/1108/2 while starting 3 games and playing 624 snaps. He averaged 4.3 receptions per game as the WR 3.
2012 - 66/787/5 while playing 13 games and 668 snaps. He averages 5.1 receptions as the WR 2.

He was basically tracking for a 81/968/6 if you pro-rate it out over 16 games which is what I believe most FF players would do. But if that is all he does then who gets the 170 receptions and 2000 yards??? Does Sanders break out? Does Heath Miller have a miracle come back at age 32? Or Does Big Ben become a bottom 8 QB this year? Even if Big Ben is way down, someone has to catch the ball here. So if you have Brown around 200-210 then you must have Sanders around 250 this year. Or else maybe you feel like Cothery or Plaxico will have some kind of resurgence.

I'm not sure what the thought process is but I can't imagine Brown having less than 80 catches if he players all year. And his upside is easily 90 catches. If he picks up his yards per catch a bit he could also be around 1200 yards plus this year. It seems to me that folks look at the player more than they look at the team and the system. This system almost always produces very nice production at WR1 and at WR2.

I'm done selling Brown as I really don't want you guys taking him from me.... He's about as safe as thay come this year barring injury and he does have some upside. I could be all wrong. But if not's Brown then who is catching it in Pitt?


Wayne

[David U Kennedy]

Brown is a safe bet for 900 yards 6 tds. I don't see upside. Crabtree going down caused opportunity in SF. Are you going to draft Boldin, Jenkins, or Manningham with the same enthusiasm just because there is a void? Seattle had a lot of opportunity for a WR to emerge and put up nice numbers. Did that happen? St Louis? You can have Brown. He very well could pan out. Big Bens body is starting to break down.

[Coltsfan]

Brown is a safe bet for 900 yards 6 tds. I don't see upside. Crabtree going down caused opportunity in SF. Are you going to draft Boldin, Jenkins, or Manningham with the same enthusiasm just because there is a void? Seattle had a lot of opportunity for a WR to emerge and put up nice numbers. Did that happen? St Louis? You can have Brown. He very well could pan out. Big Bens body is starting to break down.

Like I said before, this last post wasn't really meant for you as you really more on something other than numbers for making your judgement calls.

But no those other situations are not comparable as they have not had the same number of pass completions to WR's and TE's as what PIT has been running the past few years.

And I love that last comment. When someone really hasn't nothing to add to a good discussion they always play the injury card. "Oh you can't be right because so and so is going to get injured" LOL Or in this case he is broken down. Last year Big Ben averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game which was his second best ever. He's clearly breaking down.....


Wayne

[The Franchise]

Who will catch the ball in Pitt if not Brown??? Is Big Ben going to throw for less than 2500 yards this year? Someone has to catch it. If not Brown then who is the guy to own? And David I understand you're not a numbers guy so this isn't necessarily for you.

In 2010 Pitt WR's had 226 receptions for 3210 yards and 16 TD's. They also had 68/757/4 to TE's.

In 2011 Pitt WR's had 193/2491/15 with TE's having 81/875/10

Let's pretend that Big Ben totally tanks this year and he put up 250 receptions to WR's and TE's with an average of 12 yards per reception which is well below historical numbers. That would mean that WR's and TE's would have 3000 yards to divy up between them.

The averages TD's to the WR's and TE's over the past 2 years is about 22.5. Let's say they get 20 this year.

Who is going to get this production. Someone has to. You can't just say that nobody will. Unless you think that Big Ben is going to put up Mark Sanchez type numbers this year.....

Let's look at Brown.

2011 - 69/1108/2 while starting 3 games and playing 624 snaps. He averaged 4.3 receptions per game as the WR 3.
2012 - 66/787/5 while playing 13 games and 668 snaps. He averages 5.1 receptions as the WR 2.

He was basically tracking for a 81/968/6 if you pro-rate it out over 16 games which is what I believe most FF players would do. But if that is all he does then who gets the 170 receptions and 2000 yards??? Does Sanders break out? Does Heath Miller have a miracle come back at age 32? Or Does Big Ben become a bottom 8 QB this year? Even if Big Ben is way down, someone has to catch the ball here. So if you have Brown around 200-210 then you must have Sanders around 250 this year. Or else maybe you feel like Cothery or Plaxico will have some kind of resurgence.

I'm not sure what the thought process is but I can't imagine Brown having less than 80 catches if he players all year. And his upside is easily 90 catches. If he picks up his yards per catch a bit he could also be around 1200 yards plus this year. It seems to me that folks look at the player more than they look at the team and the system. This system almost always produces very nice production at WR1 and at WR2.

I'm done selling Brown as I really don't want you guys taking him from me.... He's about as safe as thay come this year barring injury and he does have some upside. I could be all wrong. But if not's Brown then who is catching it in Pitt?


Wayne

The numbers support your argument and you don't have to worry about me taking him. He's all yours

[Coltsfan]

[/quote]

The numbers support your argument and you don't have to worry about me taking him. He's all yours [/quote]

I'm counting on you Nelson! LOL


Wayne

[CoMoHusker]

Brown is a safe bet for 900 yards 6 tds. I don't see upside. Crabtree going down caused opportunity in SF. Are you going to draft Boldin, Jenkins, or Manningham with the same enthusiasm just because there is a void? Seattle had a lot of opportunity for a WR to emerge and put up nice numbers. Did that happen? St Louis? You can have Brown. He very well could pan out. Big Bens body is starting to break down.

Like I said before, this last post wasn't really meant for you as you really more on something other than numbers for making your judgement calls.

But no those other situations are not comparable as they have not had the same number of pass completions to WR's and TE's as what PIT has been running the past few years.

And I love that last comment. When someone really hasn't nothing to add to a good discussion they always play the injury card. "Oh you can't be right because so and so is going to get injured" LOL Or in this case he is broken down. Last year Big Ben averaged 24.2 fantasy points per game which was his second best ever. He's clearly breaking down.....


Wayne

I agree with you, Wayne. I don't think there is any evidence that Big Ben is "breaking down." I do however, think that his success this year is very much dependent upon the effectiveness of the running game. That's usually common sense but in Ben's case he's most likely going to have a rookie ball carrier behind him and will need for Bell to be a consistent of enough runner to open up the passing game. I know that both the Broncos and Packers will most likely have rookie RB's leading their backfields but both QB's on those teams have a lot better weapons in the passing game to rely on. I do like Brown this year as a low end WR2 who could approach 80+ receptions rather easily if things go right.

[David U Kennedy]

As far as Big Ben goes his Offensive line sucks and he takes a lot of abuse by holding on to the ball to make plays downfield. That's always been his game. Hes getting older now. He missed 3 games last year and just had surgery (Knee I believe). Im not saying hes "broke down". Im just saying he is more of injury risk at this point in his career. I think he misses 4 or 5 games or more this year. Missing Miller and Wallace should decrease his stats. I wouldn't be surprised if he's more of a 18 to 20 point a week guy. Add in the games missed and Pitt is a team Im avoiding for the price. Bell in the 4th, Brown 5th or 6th no thanks!!

[Coltsfan]

As far as Big Ben goes his Offensive line sucks and he takes a lot of abuse by holding on to the ball to make plays downfield. That's always been his game. Hes getting older now. He missed 3 games last year and just had surgery (Knee I believe). Im not saying hes "broke down". Im just saying he is more of injury risk at this point in his career. I think he misses 4 or 5 games or more this year. Missing Miller and Wallace should decrease his stats. I wouldn't be surprised if he's more of a 18 to 20 point a week guy. Add in the games missed and Pitt is a team Im avoiding for the price. Bell in the 4th, Brown 5th or 6th no thanks!!

David,

Like I said before, I wasnt' gearing my initial post towards you as I know you don't care about numbers. But I've already asked many times. Who catches the ball in Pitt? Give me this pearl of wisdom. You agree that someone will catch a ball or two this year, correct? Old Big Ben should be good for at least 45-50 yards per game passing right?


Wayne

[RedRyder]

As far as Big Ben goes his Offensive line sucks and he takes a lot of abuse by holding on to the ball to make plays downfield. That's always been his game. Hes getting older now. He missed 3 games last year and just had surgery (Knee I believe). Im not saying hes "broke down". Im just saying he is more of injury risk at this point in his career. I think he misses 4 or 5 games or more this year. Missing Miller and Wallace should decrease his stats. I wouldn't be surprised if he's more of a 18 to 20 point a week guy. Add in the games missed and Pitt is a team Im avoiding for the price. Bell in the 4th, Brown 5th or 6th no thanks!!

Under Todd Haley last year, Big Ben didn't really hold onto the ball to make downfield plays. In fact, he hated what he called Haley's "dink and dunk" offense. Mike Wallace was a horrible fit for Haley's offense, he just favors short passes. Now, I hope Haley can dial in the running game so some play action passes can be set-up. Pitt has hinted of some offensive scheme changed/tweaks this season...if that is one of them, Antonio Brown would indeed have some upside.

[David U Kennedy]

David,

Like I said before, I wasnt' gearing my initial post towards you as I know you don't care about numbers. But I've already asked many times. Who catches the ball in Pitt? Give me this pearl of wisdom. You agree that someone will catch a ball or two this year, correct? Old Big Ben should be good for at least 45-50 yards per game passing right?


Wayne[/quote]

Obviously A. Brown, Sanders, Wheaton, Miller or whatever TE and of course Bell will all catch balls. SO those are the candidates. But it seems your argument is just because there is a void Brown will flourish. Perhaps that happens. Crabtree is gone for season in SF. Kap is a top QB without a WR 1 type guy. Who replaces those 85 catches? By your definition either AJ Jenkins, Manningham or Boldin will. Is there a TE or even WR on the Pats roster that will replace what Hernandez does? I don't believe in Antonio Brown as a Top WR for Pitt. His targets will go up but to flourish and gain 1200 yards I say no. And mostly like I have stated before I think Pitt is a declining team. No longer dominate on DEF or talented at WR.