QB points

[Greg Ambrosius]

I was just reading what you said. My bad.

All I said is that Josh McCown had a GREAT game on Monday night in any scoring system, but his 51 points were highlighted by a RUSHING TD that was worth 6 points. Moving our scoring system to 4 points per passing TD wouldn't have moved him out of the No. 1 spot among QBs in Week 14, that's all.

[Don Draper]

Billy - This is fantasy football!!! Anything can and will happen. Everyone had a chance to pickup and start McCown. Him being on some of the leading teams is really of no concern. It could be Drew Bennett from a few years ago. What would you propose cutting wr points the following year? It coulda been Bryce Brown from last year. etc, etc...

An astute owner once said...YOU EITHER GET IT DONE OR YOU DON'T!

[nails]

- I think it's all relative.. 6 point league, just draft a qb HIGHER if your concerned. sometimes you get lucky sometimes you don't. I had Matt Ryan, I thought we would just a solid rock. nothing great, but not bad at all.. then lose Julio and he drops like a rock each week. you survive and adapt.

what I do think though is that 3RR is really outdated now.. The no . 1 pick is not that big an advantage anymore.

my biggest thing though is that I firmly believe that the free agents market should remain open for each player in the playoffs (who have bidding $ left). all the players in the ind leagues could make pickups because they are in consolation rounds as well.. so it's fair.. I just think you should be able to tweak lineups during playoffs.. however it's all good.. good luck all

[BillyWaz]

Billy - This is fantasy football!!! Anything can and will happen. Everyone had a chance to pickup and start McCown. Him being on some of the leading teams is really of no concern. It could be Drew Bennett from a few years ago. What would you propose cutting wr points the following year? It coulda been Bryce Brown from last year. etc, etc...

An astute owner once said...YOU EITHER GET IT DONE OR YOU DON'T!

I hear ya, Mark.

In looking back at it, I was sitting back this year and thinking that the QB scoring was a little high, and watching McCown put up 50+ probably made me act on those thoughts. But people are correct here......it doesn't matter if it is 6 points or not, you can choose to wait, draft one early, etc. and there is always going to be something unexpected that happens at ANY position.

Good luck to all that did take McCown......hopefully the news will be good for you tomorrow!

As for Bryce Brown, Mark.....he was CRAP when the playoffs last year. He was $$$ during weeks 12 and 13.

And this owner who said, "YOU EITHER GET IT DONE OR YOU DON'T"?.....he is probably really full of shit!

[RoadKing]

I agree free agent bids should be open during playoffs. You can freeze all players dropped from week 13 forward.

[Sandman62]

- I think it's all relative.. 6 point league, just draft a qb HIGHER if your concerned.

But that doesn't solve everything because the high-scoring QB format makes for some wild swings throughout the season - even for QBs that aren't drafted early or at all. This was Wayne's point about standard deviation.

Using just the QBs that show up on the first page of the stats (25 QBs), because it's just too tedious to copy/paste more... In just the last 5 weeks, 30 QBs scored 30+ points.
I count 14 who weren't drafted as QB1s (or at all):

Wk ADP Pos Player Pts
14 ND QB McCown, Josh (CHI) 51.0
13 32.56 Manning, Peyton (DEN) 45.8
14 32.56 Manning, Peyton (DEN) 43.7
10 23.41 Brees, Drew (NO) 43.6
14 75.58 Luck, Andrew (IND) 43.5
11 158.69 Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 43.5
14 ND Campbell, Jason (CLE) 40.2
14 23.41 Brees, Drew (NO) 39.9
10 32.56 Manning, Peyton (DEN) 39.4
14 144.93 Dalton, Andy (CIN) 38.8
13 95.48 Wilson, Russell (SEA) 38.2
12 191.88 Rivers, Philip (SD) 37.7
10 87.72 Griffin III, Robert (WAS) 36.4
14 158.69 Roethlisberger, Ben (PIT) 35.2
11 62.01 Newton, Cam (CAR) 34.6
12 52.34 Brady, Tom (NE) 34.2
13 62.01 Newton, Cam (CAR) 33.9
11 162.85 Palmer, Carson (ARI) 32.6
10 215.33 Foles, Nick (PHI) 32.2
14 52.34 Brady, Tom (NE) 32.0
13 207.69 Weeden, Brandon (CLE) 32.0
13 215.33 Foles, Nick (PHI) 32.0
12 77.40 Kaepernick, Colin (SF) 31.7
14 199.37 Tannehill, Ryan (MIA) 31.6
10 241.00 Fitzpatrick, Ryan (TEN) 31.5
11 87.72 Griffin III, Robert (WAS) 30.6
12 ND Fitzpatrick, Ryan (TEN) 30.6
11 76.30 Stafford, Matthew (DET) 30.5
12 196.78 Smith, Alex (KC) 30.4
13 76.30 Stafford, Matthew (DET) 30.3

Contrast that with the number of position players that have scored 30+ that weren't drafted or were drafted late... that is a much much smaller number. Even if you account for the fact that position players don't score as much as QBs, and reduce the threshold to 25 or even 20, there are still precious few nobodies going off each week. And at positions, teams start 2-3, plus a flex - so we can make up ground against a lone outlier. Starting just one QB, if your opponent's puts up 40 and yours 15, you can only climb out of that hole via other positions.

When you can get 30+ points out of a bunch of non-drafted QBs on any given week, that simply increases the luck factor. I get it though,... that also increases entries.

Count me in favor of 4-point passing TDs and 1 point per 25 yards passing. And along the same "reduce standard deviation" line, with how pass-happy the NFL's become the past few years, is it time to drop PPR too?

[BillyWaz]

- I think it's all relative.. 6 point league, just draft a qb HIGHER if your concerned.

Count me in favor of 4-point passing TDs and 1 point per 25 yards passing. And along the same "reduce standard deviation" line, with how pass-happy the NFL's become the past few years, is it time to drop PPR too?

Good analysis, Mike.

As for the PPR, I will NEVER AGAIN play in a league that DOESN'T have PPR (not that I have in the past 10 years or so anyhow).

However, the thing that drives me crazy is when someone catches a pass for negative yards. For example, a quick bubble screen that get blown up and the receiver gets -4 yards. They still get credit for .6 points (probably happens to RB's far more now that I think about it). My only complaint is them getting POSITIVE points on the play. I realize that would be a programming nightmare......just thinking out loud.

While I am thinking about it, the one possible rule change that I know has been discussed is only counting points against the defense that the defense or special teams surrendered. For example, if Cam Newton throws a pick 6, the Carolina Panthers D/ST shouldn't be penalized for that. Another contest does this, so it should be an easy programming fix that would not penalize the D/ST for something they had no part in.

[Sandman62]

Thanks Billy.

IMO, PPR was invented back in the days when WRs didn't produce as well as top RBs. Those days are obviously long gone. When the NFFC bumped up RBs to full PPR, that would've been a good time to just remove it altogether from all positions. It's so difficult to roster enough RBs to get decent RB2 or flex production. Yet a TON of nobody WRs can easily fill our WR2/3 or flex role each week. I just think that, if the rules in place 3-5 years ago were relevant to the state of the NFL game back then (not as pass-heavy), if that NFL landscape has significantly changed, why shouldn't fantasy football scoring?

Completely agree on the DST scoring change request. I'm sure it'll come up again in the annual off-season rule change discussions.

[Coach JP]

PPR is a staple and required to eliminate the luck factor. If you remove PPR you are relying mostly on touchdowns, which you can never count on. PPR makes sure that you are drafting players who touch the ball the most, which is how it should be.

If it ever got to the point where WR's are ballooned, the best way to counter it would to add .25 per carry. We should not just be trying to balance scoring, we should be rewarding people for taking players who are a cog in an offense.

I'm also curious who the nobodies are at WR2 scoring points routinely each week. I don't think it's that way at all IMHO.

[Sandman62]

PPR is a staple and required to eliminate the luck factor. If you remove PPR you are relying mostly on touchdowns, which you can never count on. PPR makes sure that you are drafting players who touch the ball the most, which is how it should be.

That's a good point. But it doesn't eliminate all of it because it increases the scoring. So big scores are BIGGER, which increases volatility.

I'm also curious who the nobodies are at WR2 scoring points routinely each week. I don't think it's that way at all IMHO.

I guess I shouldn't have labeled them WR2/3. What I meant by that is that, some teams, due to injuries or bad fortune, are starting some WR3s and WR2s even that were drafted very late. For example, our Primetime playoffs have Terrance Williams and Marlon Brown.
My point was that it's just too easy (if inconsistent) to get decent WR production from places other than the first half of drafts - IMO, much easier than for RBs.

Just doing some quick number crunching ...
1) Of the 177 WRs whom scored 20+ points so far this season, 59 (33%) were drafted after round 10 (or undrafted).
2) Reducing the threshold from 20 to 15 points shows 320 WRs breaking that mark, and 119 (37%) of them were drafted after round 10 (or undrafted).

I didn't run the similar numbers for RBs yet, but I strongly suspect there weren't as many of them scoring this much that were drafted after round 10 (or undrafted). But I may be wrong. I'll try to run those numbers tonight.