QB points

[Coach JP]

It's a crap shoot the last three weeks - And for the record - I started Flynn against the Lions, and it cost my team 7 grand - We would have run away with the playoffs - I stand by the decision, and it was the right play -

Whoa whoa whoa.. you only lost 22 points starting Flynn over RG3 that week - I beat you by 30 and Chad ran away with points in our league. Don't take away our achievements

What a meltdown that final week was for us both.. we were both bottom 5 teams in week 13.

Saw Edelman/Charles/Djax all went off and said to myself 'damn Wil must be having a great week'. Good luck in the final week, though I'm hoping everyone with Charles gets a goose egg since he's the reason I'm 14th.

[TR]

Off topic one sec: How was Matt Flynn seriously not benched at some point this year? I would have 100% benched him before half time this week. Along with Thanksgiving (And I needed him so bad that day). I couldn't believe it when he started after halftime. And I was 10000% in favor of them signing him...

GREAT post Wayne! Except that part where you just HAD to throw in Stafford's low (that's a career low game by the way... watching Matt Cassel go OFF vs Philly yesterday was like pouring salt in my wounds thinking about what Stafford could have done vs Philly, and ESPECIALLY Calvin)!

The team in first place in OC took a 0 out of his TE and he's in first place still. You aren't winning a contest at the NFFC with hundreds of people in it with a 0 out of your QB but you can absorb a zero at any other position. Tom just posted the remaining players in the Primetime, look at all the Stafford's at the bottom, even with his best score of the season tonight those teams are DONE. Sandman's list was one of the hardest things I've ever had to look at in fantasy football terms (great work on your excel sheets btw Sandman! and good catch on me forgetting to take out Charles catches a few posts ago!). It's why I think the payout for leading for 13 weeks should be way higher (like 10k+ but I know, that takes away from the carrot that draws customers in so it'll never happen) and why I often wonder if the grand prize race should be longer. Like in 12 team leagues you play everyone once and then have a 5 week playoff instead of 2 weeks of all play. Obviously the shorter it is the more luck plays a part. I think Billy's idea that the regular season average should be weighted more for the playoffs is the best idea I've heard on here in awhile but that's just my opinion.

Have passing TD's or yardage ever been included in the survey that is sent out at the end of every year? I would just be curious to know how the vote came out (or would come out)? And make no mistake, that's not me beating the drum to change it, just asking if there are some numbers out there

Didn't someone win just 2 years ago taking a 0 at the QB position in week 16 (forgot if it was Classic or Primetime)

Yes I believe so, but they also didn't have to compete with 3rd place winners in every league also. I think if NFFC went back to the original format of allowing only 2 teams from each league to make the main event so u have about 1 in 60 shot would drastically reduce alot of this randomness. I wonder how many teams in top 10 were teams that finished 3rd in their leagues...

[Greg Ambrosius]

I certainly don't want to make our scoring system a focal point before our great Week 16 finishes, but this thread had me take a look at our QB points to compare them to the other positions. I wanted to see how the differentials compared for each position and the data is interesting.

Before I go on, I'll say that we have no desire to change our scoring system from 6 points to 4 points per passing TD. Every contest has their unique twists and the NFFC has always been a 6 point per passing TD league and I don't see that changing anytime soon. QBs are very valuable in the NFL and our scoring reflects that. It also provides very tough decisions on where to draft QBs in comparison to the other positions, making our drafts unique. And yes, we realize that some QBs can go off for 40+ points in the short 3-week playoffs and help determine the overall champions, but so can RBs and WRs.

Anyway, I looked at each position with the weekly scoring average of the Top 20 players. Let's throw out the top 2 players from each position since they appear to be outliers and compare the weekly scoring averages of Players 3 through 14 and 3 through 20 just to see how the variances differ from each position:

Position: 3rd-14th 3rd-20th
QB: 3.6 ppg, 5.5 ppg
RB: 4.8 ppg, 5.8 ppg
WR: 5.3 ppg, 6.5 ppg
TE: 4.6 ppg, 6.0 ppg
D: 3.0 ppg, 3.9 ppg
K: 1.8 ppg, 3.1 ppg

QBs: 1. Peyton Manning 35.6 ppg, Drew Brees 30.1 ppg. 3rd QB averages 26.9 ppg, 14th = 23.3, 20th = 21.4.
3rd QB through 20th QB averages between 26.9 ppg and 21.4 ppg

RBs: Jamaal Charles 25.3 ppg, Matt Forte 20.8 pp. 3rd RB averages 19.7 ppg, 14th = 14.9, 20th = 13.9
3rd RB through 20th RB averages between 19.7 ppg and 13.9 ppg

WRs: Josh Gordon 23.4 ppg, Calvin Johnson 22.8 ppg. 3rd WR averages 22.1 ppg, 14th = 16.8, 20th = 15.6.
3rd WR through 20th WR averages between 22.1 ppg and 15.6 ppg

TEs: Jimmy Graham 19.0 ppg, Rob Gronkowski 17.4 ppg. 3rd TE averages 15.6 ppg, 14th = 11.0, 20th = 9.6.
3rd TE through 20th TE averages between 15.6 ppg and 9.6 ppg

D/ST: Kansas City 15.4 ppg, Seattle 12.4 ppg. 3rd D averages 11.3 ppg, 14th = 8.3, 20th = 7.4.
3rd D through 20th D averages between 11.3 ppg and 7.4 ppg

K: Justin Tucker 11.6 ppg, Stephen Gostkowski 11.4 ppg. 3rd K averages 11.1 ppg, 14th = 9.3, 20th = 8.0.
3rd K through 20th K averages between 11.1 ppg and 8.0 ppg

I understand that QBs are averaging 5 to 7 points per game more than the other positions, but the point differentials are actually less than they are among RBs and WRs. And we definitely have no desire to eliminate PPR or to make RB receptions less valuable now. Heck, we enjoy more scoring points, not less.

I'm not sure if my data proves anything, other than it looks like everyone has tough decisions to make again on Draft Day. Getting the top tier players at each position is key, no matter what the scoring setup is. Decreasing passing TDs to 4 points would lower QB scoring by 3.2 ppg to 4 ppg for the 3rd through 20th QBs, but it would also lower the scoring differential to 4.7 ppg for QBs 3 through 20, much lower than RBs (5.8), WRs (6.5) or TEs (6.0).

[Greg Ambrosius]

Didn't someone win just 2 years ago taking a 0 at the QB position in week 16 (forgot if it was Classic or Primetime)

Michael Treffiletti won the NFFC Classic in 2011 by getting a 0 from Tony Romo in Week 16.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I think if NFFC went back to the original format of allowing only 2 teams from each league to make the main event so u have about 1 in 60 shot would drastically reduce alot of this randomness. I wonder how many teams in top 10 were teams that finished 3rd in their leagues...

You can easily see this in every national contest by just clicking on the league hyperlink within the Overall Standings. Every league pops up and you can see how many third place teams are in the Top 10 of their Championship Rounds. I don't understand, now we want fewer teams in the Championship Round?? I thought earlier folks were asking for a 3rd team in the Championship Round of the Online Championship. I'm confused.

[Sandman62]

Greg,

While I agree that we don't wish to take away from anyone's achievements with these rules discussions, unfortunately, this is the time that things are still clear in our heads. FWIW, we're still in the Primetime hunt, as well as in the running in a few DCs. So this isn't sour grapes.

I think I understand your point: that within each position there is random weekly scoring volatility, in which many players (some "nobodies" even) routinely outscore the top players at that position. Is that what you mean?

I can see that. For instance, using the #3 ranked player at QB, RB and WR (I didn't do TE), here are the counts from weeks 11-15 (5 games) of players at each position who BEAT the #3 player's average PPG this season:
• QB #3 is Stafford, averaging 25.8 PPG. 51 QBs beat that.
• RB #3 is McCoy, averaging 19.7 PPG. 50 RBs beat that.
• WR #3 is ABrown, averaging 20.0 PPG. 62 WRs beat that.
This data suggests that WRs are even more volatile than QBs and RBs (at least in this small sampling size of 5 games).

That said, I'm not sure it's really about the quantity of players who outscore the top players at their position, but more about the effect of such high scores on team competition. In the past 5 weeks alone, 32 QBs have broken 30 points, but just 9 RBs and 15 WRs. I get it that you want QBs to play a large role, but it makes it easy to cover up a poor weekly TEAM performance when your QB can score what 2-3 position players usually score. At least at RB and WR, we start 2 and 3, respectively, plus a flex, so a lone high score by ONE of our opponent's non-QB players can potentially be offset by the other players we start at that position. Not so for QBs as we only start one. (I'm not suggesting starting two QBs either.)

IMO, the effects on team competition of the QB position can be reduced by lowering its scoring format. If you're not [yet?] interested in 4-pt passing TDs, then perhaps at least consider starting with lowering the 100 yards passing from 5 to 4 points? This game is hard enough; why make it so easy to recover from a not-so-good team performance by just having one player on your team go off?

I'd be curious if most owners agree with your statement: "we enjoy more scoring points, not less". Maybe that's something that can make it into the off-season survey? I know I personally would prefer a flatter scoring line that LESS points would yield. But heck, I also enjoy playing poker with NO wild cards.

[Tom Kessenich]

I get it that you want QBs to play a large role, but it makes it easy to cover up a poor weekly TEAM performance

You can say the exact same thing about the NFL. If you have a big-time quarterback or one putting up big-time numbers (like Josh McCown was, for example) that can go a long way toward covering up the other weaknesses on your team. While I think we all need to remember this is called "fantasy" football for a reason I don't see anything wrong with the quarterback production in our contests mirroring the type of results we see every week in the NFL.

[ForLoveOfTheGame]

Amazing post Sandman. I couldn't agree more. I don't care about scoring lots of points or more points, I care about it being as fair as possible.

I have an OC that I outscored the best record guy by about 200 points. He was like 8th in the league in points and near 900th in the overall standings but went 12-1 so now we are playing heads up for the $$$. I am losing by 50 points to him after 2 weeks and going to lose because he played Mccown for 51 and Fitzpatrick for 42. No replacement level talent at any other position can come in and make even close to that big of difference.

And I'm not screaming for it to be changed but QB scoring is too high imo.

[Coltsfan]

Greg,

Either you weren't referring to what I had posted, you didn't understand what I posted, or else you just went to an entirely different argument that supports your point. I didn't see anyone here mention the scoring difference between the 3rd ranked QB verses the 14th ranked QB. The discussion (at least what I took out of it) was about how the QB scoring happens from week to week and since it is the highest in the industry it has much more of an impact on H2H than other contests.

I understand your not changing and that's no problem at all. I love your draftmasters championship and I'm sure I'll do a ton of those next year. And even the regular leagues are heavily waited on points so the huge weekly fluctuations really don't matter all that much. It just gets really brutal in the 3 week races. Just my opinion.


Wayne

[Greg Ambrosius]

Greg,

Either you weren't referring to what I had posted, you didn't understand what I posted, or else you just went to an entirely different argument that supports your point. I didn't see anyone here mention the scoring difference between the 3rd ranked QB verses the 14th ranked QB. The discussion (at least what I took out of it) was about how the QB scoring happens from week to week and since it is the highest in the industry it has much more of an impact on H2H than other contests.

I understand your not changing and that's no problem at all. I love your draftmasters championship and I'm sure I'll do a ton of those next year. And even the regular leagues are heavily waited on points so the huge weekly fluctuations really don't matter all that much. It just gets really brutal in the 3 week races. Just my opinion.


Wayne

I understood it all Wayne. If we reduce TDs from 6 points to 4 points then Josh McCown gets only 43 points in Week 14 instead of 51. If we reduce passing points to 1 every 25 yards instead of 1 every 20 he gets 39 instead of 51. You're asking for that. I get it from you, Billy, Jared and Mike. But I'm getting more emails and PMs from folks saying they are surprised by this request and to stay the course. We'll gladly consider all changes, but opinions aren't all being made on the Message Boards. It's a worthy discussion, but changing scoring isn't a light decision and not something we want to do regularly.