Trendsetters 2014

[moyer1313]

3.1 - Montee Ball
3.2 - DeSean Jackson
3.3 - Reggie Bush
3.4 - Aaron Rodgers
3.5 - Chris Johnson
3.6 - Randall Cobb
3.7 - Keenan Allen
3.8 - Andre Johnson
3.9 - Shane Vereen
3.10 - Larry Fitzgerald
3.11 - Ray Rice
3.12 - Vincent Jackson
3.13 - Julius Thomas
3.14 - Michael Crabtree
4.1 - Victor Cruz
4.2 - Kendall Wright
4.3 - Wes Welker
4.4 - TY Hilton
4.5 - Rob Gronkowski
4.6 - Percy Harvin
4.7 - Eric Decker
4.8 - Torrey Smith
4.9 - Andre Ellington
4.10 - Trent Richardson

After taking a chance on Murray at 2.10, I went safe with Fitzgerald at 3.10.

There were 8 picks between my 3.10 and 4.5 picks. I was hoping for any of 5 WRs (VJ, Crabtree, Cruz, Welker, Hilton), but none of them made it back to me.

I had 4 riskier players to choose from. I went with Gronk. Jules took one of my other options (Harvin) with the next pick.

RB - Matt Forte
RB - DeMarco Murray
WR - Larry Fiztgerald
TE - Rob Gronkowski

Mark
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[RiFF]

From the 4 slot through 4 rounds:

Pick 1.04 - Adrian Peterson: I wanted the 4 slot because in my early rankings I have Charles and AP as 1 and 1a...would be happy with either. I have Calvin at 2 and McCoy at 3. I assumed McCoy may go at 2 or 3 and I may get my 1a player or 2 player at 4. After those 4 players I have a pretty significant drop off in my projections. So, I would have been ok with any of the 4 but was really pleased getting AP.

Pick 2.11 - Arian Foster: As Bernard kept falling in round 2 I was hoping he'd get to me...but no surprise, Jules nabbed him a couple picks in front of me. I debated about "playing it safe" with a WR or even possibly a QB (really didn't seriously consider QB) but with this group of drafters you better go big or go home. I thought with the players left Foster offered the most upside. Of course, he also comes with major downside. But from all the early reports he seems on track to a full recovery and Houston seems perfectly content with letting Tate walk...so, they seem comfortable with Foster's progress. Granted, he's had a lot of work between 2010-2012 but overall he still doesn't have a lot of total mileage compared to many others. IF he is fully recovered, he could possibly have a nice comeback year.....if not, oh well.

Pick 3.11 - Ray Rice: Rice was the last RB left on the board that I had interest in over the next couple rounds. Again, similar to Foster, he comes with risk...but also a lot of upside at pick 39. He was hampered with a hip issue for most of the year which should be fine given rest. And I really like the addition of Kubiak as the OC...he has done great things with a lot less. Also, especially in a 14 team format I generally like to get a solid stable of RB's early because the well runs dry pretty quickly and the depth at WR is much greater, imo. Obviously my chances will most likely hinge on conebacks from Foster and/or Rice

Pick 4.04 - TY Hilton. I was definitely going to go WR at this point and was both surprised and pleased Hilton was available. He was the 23rd WR off the board; in my early rankings I have him as WR #16 and probably woyuld have drafted him at 3.11 if Rice wasn't available. He seems set to take over as the #1 in Indy and is developing a great rapport with Luck. I believe he offers nice upside and see him as an Antonio Brown type receiver with more speed. The only thing hoilding him back, imo, is the OC. It's possible he takes a big stride forward in 2014. But, even if he stays on his curerent trajectory he should prove to be decent value here.

RB: Adrian Peterson
RB: Adrian Foster
RB: Ray Rice
WR: TY Hilton

Probably not the start for the faint of heart, but again with this group of drafters, safe will get you a nice middle of the pack finish....and if I don't finish 1st or 2nd...12th or 13th is fine.

[Tom Kessenich]

I'm a huge Montee Ball fan but 29th overall is ballsy. Real ballsy.

[Tom Kessenich]

Thanks to Wayne for coming on our Sirius show last night to talk about this draft. Great stuff and we'll likely keep talking about this draft for the next couple of shows at least so we may tap into this group for more guests. Stay tuned.

[Sandman62]

From the 4 slot through 4 rounds:
Pick 4.04 - TY Hilton. He seems set to take over as the #1 in Indy and is developing a great rapport with Luck. I believe he offers nice upside and see him as an Antonio Brown type receiver with more speed. The only thing hoilding him back, imo, is the OC. It's possible he takes a big stride forward in 2014. But, even if he stays on his curerent trajectory he should prove to be decent value here.

Is the general consensus that Wayne's washed up? (Reggie, not Ellis ) Or does Hilton go back to being DeSean-Lite when a healthy Wayne returns? Hilton is still a very nice DC player if that happens, but maybe moreso due to TD/bomb potential than 115+ catches?

[RedRyder]

From the 4 slot through 4 rounds:
Pick 4.04 - TY Hilton. He seems set to take over as the #1 in Indy and is developing a great rapport with Luck. I believe he offers nice upside and see him as an Antonio Brown type receiver with more speed. The only thing hoilding him back, imo, is the OC. It's possible he takes a big stride forward in 2014. But, even if he stays on his curerent trajectory he should prove to be decent value here.

Is the general consensus that Wayne's washed up? (Reggie, not Ellis ) Or does Hilton go back to being DeSean-Lite when a healthy Wayne returns? Hilton is still a very nice DC player if that happens, but maybe moreso due to TD/bomb potential than 115+ catches?

Hilton had ZERO TD catches for the last 8 regular season games. He did have 3 nice PPR games out of those 8, but otherwise didn't deliver what owners thought he would with Wayne out. Or with Wayne in for that matter, he was drafted pretty high in 2013.

I do not think Wayne is washed up, but I do think his game has changed. He will be the short to intermediate route runner that has good hands. A super solid WR3...of course I took has as my WR2, but that is what happens when you go TE in the 1st round.

[Tom Kessenich]

I do not think Wayne is washed up, but I do think his game has changed. He will be the short to intermediate route runner that has good hands. A super solid WR3...of course I took has as my WR2, but that is what happens when you go TE in the 1st round.

I could see him being similar to what Marvin Harrison was when he came back from injury late in his career and Wayne was elevated to the No. 1 WR role in the offense.

[Coltsfan]

I can't speak to Reggie Wayne but I know for sure that I'm washed up....

I honestly have huge concerns about Wayne this year. I remember Marvin coming back from an injury in his mid 30's and he was never the same. But I'm not sure that Wayne being gone or having a diminished role helps TY. I regard him as a very nice WR2 or a low end WR2 for fantasy but I"m not sure he has the physical gifts to be a top WR in the league. We'll see. I could definitely be wrong about that.


Wayne

[RiFF]

From the 4 slot through 4 rounds:
Pick 4.04 - TY Hilton. He seems set to take over as the #1 in Indy and is developing a great rapport with Luck. I believe he offers nice upside and see him as an Antonio Brown type receiver with more speed. The only thing hoilding him back, imo, is the OC. It's possible he takes a big stride forward in 2014. But, even if he stays on his curerent trajectory he should prove to be decent value here.

Is the general consensus that Wayne's washed up? (Reggie, not Ellis ) Or does Hilton go back to being DeSean-Lite when a healthy Wayne returns? Hilton is still a very nice DC player if that happens, but maybe moreso due to TD/bomb potential than 115+ catches?

I have no idea what the "general consensus" for Wayne is..(Reggie). But a player who will turn 36 years old during the 2014 season and is coming off an ACL tear, probably has his best years in the rearview mirror. Unfortunately, for most NFL players, AP set an unrealistically high bar for players coming off an ACL surgery. The typical player normally doesn't get back to form until year 2...nevermind one that will be 36. Wayne will most likely still have a complimentary role in Indy, but I believe his days as a #1 WR are over. I also believe it will be a benefit to Hilton in having Wayne return.
As far as Hilton, he ended up 2013 as the 19th ranked WR. This was his 2nd year in the league, both with Luck as his QB, and showed steady progress in both his performance and rapport with Luck. In his first 2 years he had 50 then 82 receptions...with or without Wayne, I expect his reception total to at least stay in the 80 range in 2014. As was pointed out his TD total slipped in 2013 to 5. So he had 82 receptions and 5 TD's. In 2012 he had 50 receptions and 7 TD's. So over his 1st 2 years he averaged about 1 TD per 11 receptiosn. As many might agree TD receptions can vary from year to year . But generally most WR's will revert somewhat to their mean over time. Hilton also averaged 17.2 y/r in 2012 and 13.2 in 2013, averaging 14.7 over the 2 year period.
Going into his 3rd year I believe Hilton has the potential to increase his 2nd year production. Even if he doesn't increase his reception total he has demonstrated room for upside in both TD's and y/r. I drafted him as WR #23 after he finished as WR #19 in 2013, so if he only performs at the same level this year as last I probably got decent value. But, I do believe he will add to his 2013 totals and as i said earlier I have him ranked as WR #16.
If I'm wrong...it won't be the 1st time.

[RiFF]

I honestly have huge concerns about Wayne this year. I remember Marvin coming back from an injury in his mid 30's and he was never the same. But I'm not sure that Wayne being gone or having a diminished role helps TY. I regard him as a very nice WR2 or a low end WR2 for fantasy but I"m not sure he has the physical gifts to be a top WR in the league. We'll see. I could definitely be wrong about that.

Wayne

I don't dispute that Hilton may not be a "top" WR...but, I believe there is some precedent for success as an NFL WR at his size.

Hilton - 5'10" - 183
A Brown - 5'10" - 186
S Smith - 5'9" - 179 (Won't argue that he belives he's 6'4" -230)
D Jax - 5'9" - 169
Heck, even Reggie Wayne was only 6' - 195

Nevermind the smallish slot receivers like Welker.

But, watching a lot of Hilton this year, he just seemed to get very high marks in the "eye-ball" test. At times, he seemed to dominate competition. Granted, he's not the prototypical Calvin, Dez, AJ (Green and Johnson) type of WR....and I wouldn't put him in the same refernece as those guys. But, I do believe he has the potential to be a high end WR #2 in FF. If a guy like A Brown can catch 110 passes, I believe Hilton can get within 20-25 of that mark. Of course, as is true with all players, it's a combination of skill and opportunity. And that is my primary concern with Hilton....Pep Hamilton (what kind of name is Pep?)