Coltsfan wrote:David U Kennedy wrote:Not sure why Sanders keeps going that high?? He seems to be more of a Welker backup more than anything.
Seriously??? Was Decker a Welker backup too? Not that he's Decker but he is a starting WR on a "slightly" above average offense.
You're right Wayne that Sanders isn't Decker, and IMO, he isn't likely to produce anywhere near Decker's last year line of 87/1288/11. Decker is 6'3 214, a red zone threat and isn't afraid to go over the middle or up in traffic to fight for balls. Sanders is just 5'11 180 (just 2 inches taller than Welker and 5 lbs. lighter).
That said, people drafting Sanders in the mid-5th aren't expecting Decker's WR8 281 points from last year.
In PIT last year, Sanders produced 67/740/6=177, and that was with PIT having few options behind him and ABrown. But how much higher is his ceiling, even with Peyton? Barring injuries to the WRs in front of him, I suggest about the same in his new home.
With Decker gone it's a matter of:
(a) How much of a regression do we expect from Peyton?
Prior to last year's record-setting 5477/55 season, he threw for 4500, 4700 and 4659 yards and 33, 33 and 37 TDs the prior three years. However, with everyone having witnessed a very successful formula for stopping him during the Super Bowl, and having a full off-season to prepare for them, can we expect maybe something around 5000/42? That would represent an optimistic 10% reduction in yards and 24% in TDs (which are perhaps a bit more undpredictable).
(b) How much of Decker's production do we think Sanders gets vs. bumps to the other receivers?
With DEN's passing potentially regressing almost 500 yards and 13 TDs, how might this affect the main receivers?
Well, obviously not all 5500 yards and 55 TDs were thrown to their core receivers last year:
• Demaryius: 92/1430/14 or 20%/26%/25% of team total
• Decker: 87/1288/11 or 19%/23%/20%
• Julius: 65/788/12 or 14%/14%/22%
• Welker: 73/778/10 or 16%/14%/18%
The above 4 accounted for 69% of receptions, 77% of yards and a whopping 85% of TDs.
Now, how might a Peyton projection of 5000/42 be distributed among their core receivers this year? In 2012, with Peyton "only" throwing for 4659/37, Demaryius still had almost the same line as last year: 94/1434/10. But that was before the arrival of Welker and JThomas. So I think expecting him to match those numbers with more mouths to feed and a likely Peyton regression is unrealistic. But with Peyton missing an experienced puzzle piece in Decker, he will lean a little more on who he's familiar with. So I can see a bump in percentage of team total receiving for Demaryius, Julius and maybe even a bit for Welker, seeing he missed some time last year with concussions. Of course, that same concussion issue could cause him to miss games again this year, so I project a slightly smaller increase for him.
So, first estimating this year's percentage of team total recs/yds/TDs for the returning core receivers, then using those to calculate their projections based on Peyton's projected regression to 5000/42 yields:
• Demaryius: 22%/27%/28% or 91/1350/12
• Julius 16%/15%/25% or 66/750/11
• Welker: 17%/15%/16% or 71/750/7
That leaves for Sanders, assuming the rookie Latimer doesn't eat into his touches, with both of them being new to the team:
• Sanders: 16%/18%/13% or 66/900/5 (186 NFFC points)
Conclusions:
• It may be hard to buy these numbers because they're so close to last year's. But if Peyton does indeed regress, then it's likely his receivers do too.
• I'm sure some folks are thinking I'm nuts (and I may be) because Demaryius could leap to more like 100/1500/15 - and until I thoroughly considered a Peyton regression, I thought so too. But from what I can tell, outside of record-setting QB seasons, WRs who put up those kind of yards tend to come more from teams where there aren't so many valid receiving alternatives. I don't think Peyton needs to lock in on one guy so much. But heck, I also wouldn't be too shocked to see him beat my projection, particularly in TDs, and especially if any of the other primary receivers are injured.
• Sanders' ADP so far through 22 drafts is 66.73 or WR31. In this latest DC draft, he went 65th, which is right in line with that. Last year, WR31 was Cooper, who scored 179 NFFC points, which is very close to my 186-point projection for Sanders. Though there's a chance that he may not catch onto his new offense as quickly as Peyton would like, or that Latimer could cut into his reps, there aren't many WR3s in this range with as much upside - considering we're talking about guys like Wright, TSmith, Maclin, Wallace, Decker, Colston, etc - especially if Welker suffers more concussions and Sanders benefits.
I guess it depends what type of WRs one has already drafted in prior rounds, and whether their current need is a high-floor or an upside type.