Week 8 Thoughts and Observations

[Tom Kessenich]

I agree with what Mike Wallace said yesterday - the offense was "s**t" on Sunday. They had 56 net yards in the first half. Sorry, I just don't think Tannehill is all that good and strongly advocating him last week like I did was a huge mistake and I really regret it. But that's what happens when you ignore talent and focus primarily on matchup. Same thing happened with Locker earlier in the season. Looked decent, had a great matchup and promptly soiled the bed.

As far as Tannehill, I agree the rushing production helps him. Unfortunately he's such a so-so passer you're now really dependent upon that continuing if you want to start him. Could the stars align perfectly for him at some point this season? Absolutely. Crazy chit happens in this game all the time and on a weekly basis. But I think with Tannehill you have to factor in his downside every week and keep that in mind if you plan to start him. Or just put forth really pedestrian levels of production and hope he reaches it. Then anything above it becomes a bonus.

[Sandman62]

While I'm not a big Tannehill guy either, I do find the analysis interesting.
Which of these 2 QBs would you rather have? Is their fantasy production really so different?

1. Tannehill, 7 games this year
- Passing: 62% completion rate, average 231 yds and 1.6 TDs per game; median 241, 2.0.
- Rushing: average 28 yds and 0 TDs per game; median 35, 0.
- NFFC Pts: average 23.8 per game; median 20.7.
Games (high to low): 30.65, 29.40, 29.10, 20.70, 20.60, 19.15, 17.15

2. Mystery QB, last 11 games
- Passing: 47% completion rate, average 150 yds and 1.0 TDs per game; median 161, 1.0.
- Rushing: average 57 yds and 0.5 TDs per game; median 59, 0.
- NFFC Pts: average 21.9 per game; median 22.7.
Games (high to low): 31.00, 30.00, 25.95, 24.65, 23.40, 22.70, 20.90, 19.85, 19.75, 18.00, 4.60

Scroll down to reveal mystery QB (in case not already obvious )




























While Tebow was certainly a better runner, that was offset by how awful he was at passing. Though Tannehill doesn't run for as much as Tebow, his passing stats are sure a lot better, making these two about the same fantasy-wise.

[Tom Kessenich]

Tannehill > Tebow is hardly a rousing endorsement for Tannehill.

[Sandman62]

I agree. I wasn't trying to endorse either. I was simply pointing out how similar in production he is to a player that was being highly touted a few short years ago. Why no such love for Tannehill? [Because he isn't a media rock star?]

[Tom Kessenich]

Because to this point Tannehill hasn't been known as a guy who can't throw but will run a lot like Tebow. I agree, though, if Tannehill consistently is getting 40-50 plus rushing yards every game his fantasy value will be enhanced. Given how scattershot of a passer he is I think Tannehill owners need that to happen. My question for them then would be - Do you trust that it will?

[Sandman62]

I agree Tom. I'm using Tannehill this week with Ryan on bye, and heck, I also started him OVER Ryan last week; fortunately, it only cost me 3 points. But who knew ATL would come out so hot in London?

Maybe if the Dolphins D hadn't scored twice, robbing their offense of a couple more drives, we wouldn't even be worried about Tannehill [yet]?

[Tom Kessenich]

I don't think the primary issue was game flow. Yes the 2 INT TDs impacted the game but all Tannehill could muster in the first half was 56 total yards of offense. He just isn't that good so you cannot completely trust him. That's the issue I have and have always had with him. I've never seen the "It" factor all great QBs have that make me believe he can make all the big throws a team will need throughout the season. At times, sure. Anything can happen (see McCoy, Colt in Week 8). But consistently? I've always questioned that.

Let me ask you this - if you had a choice between Tannehill and Vick this week who would you take? On the one hand Tannehill could throw well and might keep running. On the other hand you know Vick will run and could throw well. Neither has a particularly great matchup but I don't think either is particularly terrible either. And it's not like you can really trust either offense consistently by any stretch. If we're going to start looking at Tannehill as potentially more of a running QB now this would seem to be a good comparison to make.

[Sandman62]

I'd start Tannehill still in a home game with his team favored by 2 over Vick on the road @KC -9.5 underdogs.
Though the Jets will likely be playing from behind, that alone doesn't mean they'll be productive in slop time; they may just continue being sloppy.

Tannehill is at home vs. SD, who is 6th in pass D, with 232 YPG and 14 TDs in 8 games
• QBs vs. SD (on road): Palmer: 304/2, Manuel: 238/1, Carr: 282/4, PManning: 286/3 = 277/2.5 per game
• Tannehill @home (NE, KC, GB): passing: 209/1.7, rushing: -2, 9 and 48 yds, 0 TDs
• Line: MIA -2, 44 O/U = 23-21
• Tannehill Projection: passing: 240/2, rushing: 30 yds = 27 NFFC pts

Vick is @KC, who is #1 vs. the pass, with 215 YPG and 12 TDs in 7 games (and 0 rushing TDs)
• QBs @KC: Locker: 266/2, Brady: 159/1, Davis: 160/1 = 195/1.3 per game
• Line: KC -9.5, 41.5 = 26-16
• In 7 of 8 games so far, the Jets have scored 17-25 points, despite how horrible they've looked. But the Chiefs D will be a big challenge to overcome and I strongly suspect a long, long day for Mr. Vick (= multiple picks/fumbles).
• Vick Projection: passing: 150/1, rushing: 50 yds = 18.5 NFFC pts

[Tom Kessenich]

27 points? Looks like you started drinking early today Mike.

I could see Tannehill and Vick being a lot closer than that though I'd give Tannehill a slight edge.

[Sandman62]

Naah, I'm just giving him the same pass I gave my boy Hoyer when the Browns didn't take the Jags seriously. Prior to Tannehill's Jags debacle, he'd scored 27.4, 25.1, and 30.65. I don't think 27 is at all a stretch.