Trendsetters 2016

[BigBlueNation]

It's time to start thinking fantasy football 2016. Well, for a few of us anyway. The annual Trendsetters draft will begin Super Bowl night immediately following the game. We have one owner on vacation that week, so we will do one round after the SB and then continue when he returns home. We have everybody returning from last year, including two 2015 NFFC overall champions with Mike Santos (Primetime) and Wayne Ellis (DC), not to mention Matt Bayley being one of those 7 time Classic champs, 5 time Classic champ Jules McLean, overall champ Rob Benetti, HOF'er and 3 time Classic champ BWazz and 2 time Classic champ Jeff Clampitt. If I've snubbed people with their accomplishments, my apologizes. The field is loaded with multiple champs, both league and overall. I wish I knew all of the accolades of this group. Most, if not all, will post there teams as we proceed through the draft. It usually generates some good discussion on this thread. Here's the draft order for 2016:

1) Jules Mclean
2) Rob Benetti
3) Mark Moyer
4) Glenn Lowy
5) Rich Dunn
6) Billy Wasosky
7) Matt Bayley
8) Mike Santos
9) Jeff Clampitt
10) Wayne Ellis
11) Donnie Damico
12) Mike Sanda
13) Bill Cleavenger
14) Chris Gillman

This is my favorite draft of the year. The uncertainty makes it so intriguing. Stay tuned, more to come in a couple weeks.

[Hunter1]

Meh, Ellis and Santos are absolute lightweights. I mean, I gotta have 60 pounds on both of 'em! Have fun everyone. We mere mortals will be watching (and taking notes).

[BigBlueNation]

Round 1 is in the books and we are in a holding pattern for a week until one player gets back from vacation. This round shouldn't surprise anyone as it was laced with WRs. Also no surprise that no QBs or TEs were selected. There was maybe one surprise pick to me in this round.

1.1 Antonio Brown WR Pit
1.2 Julio Jones WR Atl
1.3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
1.4 DeAndre Hopkins WR Hou
1.5 Todd Gurley RB StL
1.6 Allen Robinson WR Jax
1.7 AJ Green WR Cin
1.8 Brandon Cooks WR NO
1.9 David Johnson RB Ari
1.10 LeVeon Bell RB Pit
1.11 Adrian Peterson RB Min
1.12 Sammy Watkins WR Buf
1.13 Devante Freeman RB Atl
1.14 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ

9 WRs and 5 RBs...Absolutely no surprise there

The first four did not surprise me a bit and I'm sure the first four drafters would be happy with any of those four. I was a little surprised with the Cooks pick. He has the numbers per target and he's even >2 pts/tgt, but he's not targeted as much as others. That's still not to say he can't justify a #8 pick. I thought LeVeon would go before 10, but he has turned into an injury risk. If he fully recovers and has his typical stats, this could be the steal of the first round. I had pick 13, and if Mike had taken Freeman, I was looking at either Marshall or Sammy. The next couple rounds is where it gets interesting as different owners strategy starts to take shape.

To Be Continued....

[Sandman62]

I was a little surprised with the Cooks pick. He has the numbers per target and he's even >2 pts/tgt, but he's not targeted as much as others. That's still not to say he can't justify a #8 pick.

I initially thought the same thing about the 1.8 Cooks pick (though I had him in my top 15 too). But then I considered that after all the success Mike Santos has had, maybe I should pay attention. So I took a deeper look.
He finished 12th last year among WRs, with 246 pts, less than 20 behind #7 (Fitz). Six of his last 12 games, he scored over 20 pts, including 3 of the last 4. We all know that that kind of volatility can be very helpful in a DC league. And in the second half of the season, he averaged 17.5 PPG, median 19.8, after starting the season at 14/12.7.

So we have an explosive, volatile player who came on strong the second half of the season, on a passing offense where he's the main (only?) target of a great QB. Sounds like a pretty good recipe.

Actually pretty similar rationale for my 1.12 pick of Watkins (well, minus the pass-first offense ). After only playing 4 of the first 6 games and averaging less than 10 PPG (similar median), he went on a tear for the last 9 games, averaging 20.1, with a 19.9 median. During that stretch, he broke 30 twice, mid-high 20s twice and over 19 twice. Another young future superstar with all the right ingredients for a DC, IMO.

My son and friends think it's crazy that I'm already drafting again, but it's awfully fun, especially with this great and challenging group of drafters. Can't wait to get going again.

[Coltsfan]

It sounds kind of weird to say that the 2016 drafts are already somewhat scripted in the first round but I think everyone knew who the first 4 picks were going to be. I was picking at 10 and I honestly did not expect Leveon to be sitting there. This year is going to be WR crazy so it's a bit risky taking a RB early but he's a 350 point back if healthy.

So here is my warning. Every year my first round pick goes bust in trendsetters. (Last year was Dez.) So you may want to avoid Bell at all costs this year. He will be doing well to outproduce Montee Ball in 2016. I'm just saying..... He has been given the kiss of death.

This is a great draft! It will start to get more interesting the next few rounds. I'm more interest in seeing where QB's go this year with all of the depth and parity and the position. I"m guessing the drafts in 2016 will go a bit differently than in the past.


Wayne

[boutrous11]

a bit too high to take Dustin Hopkins, for my taste anyway...

[RiFF]

[quote="Coltsfan"]. I was picking at 10 and I honestly did not expect Leveon to be sitting there.

I believe Bell will be the most polarizing pick in early drafts. If he ends up being able to start the season by avoiding the PUP he'll probably be a steal in the 2nd half of the first round. Obviously the concern is he's 3 months removed from MCL/PCL surgery and is still unable to even jog. This probably necessitates the team who drafts him in early drafts to also consider spending a fairly high pick on DWill to protect their investment....somewhat mitigating any potential excess value in Bell.

As has been mentioned the first 4 picks went as expected...in fact I would have been surprised if they didn't go in the first 4 picks in some order. I set my KDS with #5 as my first choice with the idea of taking Gurley who I believe will be the top RB in 2016. (of course I wouldn't have been too disappointed if Gurley was gone and I had to "settle" for one of the WR's) He had an artificially low snap count in 2015 in the games he played based on being removed on passing downs. He's clearly the best receiving RB on the roster, so I'd "expect" his snap count and receptions to increase in 2016. Of course we're talking Jeff Fisher, so I wouldn't go all in on that assumption. And given the low snap count he still averaged almost 18 ppg in the full games he played. So, I do believe there is substantial upside IF he becomes more involved as a passing down RB.

I was a bit surprised at a couple of the other picks in the first round based on my early projections...but certainly none could be considered real stretches, as they all will be at minimum high-mid 2nds. And I hope Mike is dead on with Cooks as I have Cooks in both my dynasties.

Always a fun draft...and when we look back at the results in September (nevermind December) saying WTF was I thinking about!!

[chriseibl]

With the top of the draft being more established this year (I don't think you'll see that top 5 changing until someone starts writing glowing reports on LeVeon's recovery), this is a great year to have 3RR to level out the field.

[BigBlueNation]

Always a fun draft...and when we look back at the results in September (nevermind December) saying WTF was I thinking about!!

Isn't this the truth?

[Coltsfan]

I love Gurley but for him to warrant a top 5 pick wouldn't need to catch at least 50 balls this coming year? I was surprised his catches were so low. But even if he had 1900 total yards and 12 TD's you are still only at 262 points before the ppr. I may be thinking completely wrong on this, but I think that David Johnson has a much easier path to 325 fantasy points than Gurley. I fully intend on taking Gurley some this year but my expectation was to get him late in the first. I don't follow college football so I know very little about how good of receiver he was in college. I guess he seems like a virtual lock (barring injury) for 280 points but doesn't have a very clear path to 325+. Just my opinion.


Wayne