Trendsetters 2016

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:52 pm

Coltsfan wrote:I love Gurley but for him to warrant a top 5 pick wouldn't need to catch at least 50 balls this coming year? I was surprised his catches were so low. But even if he had 1900 total yards and 12 TD's you are still only at 262 points before the ppr. I may be thinking completely wrong on this, but I think that David Johnson has a much easier path to 325 fantasy points than Gurley. I fully intend on taking Gurley some this year but my expectation was to get him late in the first. I don't follow college football so I know very little about how good of receiver he was in college. I guess he seems like a virtual lock (barring injury) for 280 points but doesn't have a very clear path to 325+. Just my opinion.


Wayne
How about 1500 RuYds, 30 Rec, 250 ReYds, 12 TDs = 277 pts. (thru 15 wks)

I would consider this a good year for Gurley. Whether he's worthy depends on what you think of the other RB's. Healthy 3Down RBs are few and far between, anymore.
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

RiFF
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by RiFF » Tue Feb 09, 2016 4:57 pm

Coltsfan wrote:I love Gurley but for him to warrant a top 5 pick wouldn't need to catch at least 50 balls this coming year? I was surprised his catches were so low. But even if he had 1900 total yards and 12 TD's you are still only at 262 points before the ppr. I may be thinking completely wrong on this, but I think that David Johnson has a much easier path to 325 fantasy points than Gurley. I fully intend on taking Gurley some this year but my expectation was to get him late in the first. I don't follow college football so I know very little about how good of receiver he was in college. I guess he seems like a virtual lock (barring injury) for 280 points but doesn't have a very clear path to 325+. Just my opinion.


Wayne
Of course you could be right on the mark and Gurley turns into a disappointing high 1st round pick. I may be too high on him...I would have taken him 1st overall...but to get to the 280 points you mentioned he'd only have to stay on the same path as last year with no improvement, (as you mentioned ...barring injury). Which would mean he'd also maintain a relatively low snap count compared to other elite RB's. Most highly rated RB's, especially those taken with a high 1st round pick generally show marked improvement from year 1 to 2. Of course there are exceptions such as the Pillsbury dough boy...TRich...As I stated, I'd expect Gurley to become a much bigger part of the passing game this year. He was an effective receiver in college and was also effective in his limited chances in 2015. I don't know if Fisher limited his involvement because of perceived passpro deficiencies (supposedly he was above average coming out) or because of his injury history or some other reason. But just based on his performance in limited opportunities in 2015 plus the natural progression from year 1 to 2; I'd expect his involvement to increase in 2016.
Right now based on 16 games my early, early, early projections have him at 1500-13-46-400-1. And again barring injury I'd see some upside to those numbers. Those projections only represent a 2-2-5 ppg increase over his 2015 numbers where he was a rookie coming off major surgery with very limited camp time.. And because of the dearth at RB and the abundance of WR options I'd prefer a potential 320+ point RB to a potential 350+ point WR. (I'd like both :-) )
Could I be way off base,,,sure...it wouldn't be precedent setting.

Regarding David Johnson...I like him also... but at this point am still a bit concerned with how Arians will use him.

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Glenneration X
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Glenneration X » Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:58 pm

boutrous11 wrote:a bit too high to take Dustin Hopkins, for my taste anyway...
I know I grabbed him a bit early, but against these sharks I wanted to make sure to beat the inevitable kicker run. :mrgreen:

Sandman62
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Sandman62 » Tue Feb 09, 2016 6:50 pm

Glenneration X wrote:
boutrous11 wrote:a bit too high to take Dustin Hopkins, for my taste anyway...
I know I grabbed him a bit early, but against these sharks I wanted to make sure to beat the inevitable kicker run. :mrgreen:
:lol: :lol: :lol:

Coyote Streakers
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Coyote Streakers » Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:40 pm

Interesting start so far, did not love who was available at the 1.8 spot but had to take someone. Almost took Bell but did not want risk with the first pick out of the gate. I want to see how the off season goes for him. I was planning on a couple of WR's being available and they were not so I reached a little for Cooks there, I value him slightly different in a DE vs a H2H. Anyways fun draft and should be interesting to see how it unfolds.

Greg Ambrosius
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Wed Feb 10, 2016 7:41 pm

BigBlueNation wrote:Round 1 is in the books and we are in a holding pattern for a week until one player gets back from vacation. This round shouldn't surprise anyone as it was laced with WRs. Also no surprise that no QBs or TEs were selected. There was maybe one surprise pick to me in this round.

1.1 Antonio Brown WR Pit
1.2 Julio Jones WR Atl
1.3 Odell Beckham Jr WR NYG
1.4 DeAndre Hopkins WR Hou
1.5 Todd Gurley RB StL
1.6 Allen Robinson WR Jax
1.7 AJ Green WR Cin
1.8 Brandon Cooks WR NO
1.9 David Johnson RB Ari
1.10 LeVeon Bell RB Pit
1.11 Adrian Peterson RB Min
1.12 Sammy Watkins WR Buf
1.13 Devante Freeman RB Atl
1.14 Brandon Marshall WR NYJ

9 WRs and 5 RBs...Absolutely no surprise there

The first four did not surprise me a bit and I'm sure the first four drafters would be happy with any of those four. I was a little surprised with the Cooks pick. He has the numbers per target and he's even >2 pts/tgt, but he's not targeted as much as others. That's still not to say he can't justify a #8 pick. I thought LeVeon would go before 10, but he has turned into an injury risk. If he fully recovers and has his typical stats, this could be the steal of the first round. I had pick 13, and if Mike had taken Freeman, I was looking at either Marshall or Sammy. The next couple rounds is where it gets interesting as different owners strategy starts to take shape.

To Be Continued....
Glenn Lowy is joining me on the STATS Fantasy Advantage tonight at 10:15 pm ET to talk about the NFFC Trendsetters League. I'm surprised that Gronk didn't go in the First Round. Anyone else surprised?

Anyway, great stuff guys and I look forward to Glenn's feedback on all of this. Tune in tonight.
Founder, National Fantasy Football Championship & National Fantasy Baseball Championship
Twitter: @GregAmbrosius

TheReckoner
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by TheReckoner » Wed Feb 10, 2016 9:21 pm

Really feeling good about Santos picking Cooks.. During the 2016 thread I was the only one to mention Cooks as a first rounder... really like getting some validation by way of the 2015 monster.... That said how in the world do you all let Bell drop that low. Yes theres some risk but theres also 80-90 reception upside! Out of your Rb, at 10 thats a nice profit. Very shocked he wasnt the first RB off the board. AP in first :?

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:46 am

Greg Ambrosius wrote:I'm surprised that Gronk didn't go in the First Round. Anyone else surprised?
NOPE, the emergence of a couple other TE's living up to expectations in 2015, plus some decent years from other TE's diminishes the dominance of Gronk enough to not warrant a first round pick. JMO
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

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Coltsfan
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by Coltsfan » Thu Feb 11, 2016 11:55 am

I agree Bill. Especially since we must start 3 WR's. It's hard to take TE early in this format. Now if this wasn't best ball then maybe.


Wayne

BigBlueNation
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Re: Trendsetters 2016

Post by BigBlueNation » Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:46 pm

Coltsfan wrote:I agree Bill. Especially since we must start 3 WR's. It's hard to take TE early in this format. Now if this wasn't best ball then maybe.


Wayne
I don't mind pointing out that Wayne's "overall" DC Championship team had TEifert (rd10) AND JReed (rd15).
Bill Cleavenger
UK Wildcats...We don't rebuild, we "RELOAD"

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