An interesting side effect to this year's WR craze is that some great values can be had at other positions. For instance, I'm drafting 5th in this league and landed Gronk, Martin, McCoy and Duke at 6, 7, 12 and 9 picks after their ADPs (using just the 7 drafts from the last 14 days). For me, hard to pass on. Of course, the flip side to this is that I'm now chasing WR3/flex (after taking Green and Cobb in rounds 1 and 3).Greg Ambrosius wrote:Here's one more Draft Champions League to chew on:
NFFC Draft Champions League
Round 1:
1 1 Antonio Brown WR
1 2 Julio Jones WR
1 3 Odell Beckham Jr. WR
1 4 Ezekiel Elliott RB
1 5 A.J. Green WR
1 6 DeAndre Hopkins WR
1 7 Le'Veon Bell RB
1 8 Todd Gurley RB
1 9 David Johnson RB
1 10 Dez Bryant WR
1 11 Brandin Cooks WR
1 12 Adrian Peterson RB
Round 2:
2 1 Devonta Freeman RB
2 2 Jordy Nelson WR
2 3 Allen Robinson WR
2 4 Amari Cooper WR
2 5 Keenan Allen WR
2 6 Brandon Marshall WR
2 7 Alshon Jeffery WR
2 8 Rob Gronkowski TE
2 9 Lamar Miller RB
2 10 Mike Evans WR
2 11 T.Y. Hilton WR
2 12 Sammy Watkins WR
Round 3 - Third Round Reversal (12-1):
3 1 Jarvis Landry WR
3 2 Demaryius Thomas WR
3 3 Jeremy Maclin WR
3 4 Eddie Lacy RB
3 5 Julian Edelman WR
3 6 Jamaal Charles RB
3 7 Jordan Matthews WR
3 8 Randall Cobb WR
3 9 Golden Tate WR
3 10 Kelvin Benjamin WR
3 11 Jordan Reed TE
3 12 Eric Decker WR
Round 4:
4 1 Matt Forte RB
4 2 Mark Ingram RB
4 3 Emmanuel Sanders WR
4 4 Michael Floyd WR
4 5 Doug Martin RB
4 6 Allen Hurns WR
4 7 Doug Baldwin WR
4 8 C.J. Anderson RB
4 9 Donte Moncrief WR
4 10 Thomas Rawls RB
4 11 DeVante Parker WR
4 12 Larry Fitzgerald WR
Round 5:
5 1 Michael Crabtree WR
5 2 Aaron Rodgers QB
5 3 DeMarco Murray RB
5 4 John Brown (John) WR
5 5 Cam Newton QB
5 6 T.J. Yeldon RB
5 7 Dion Lewis RB
5 8 LeSean McCoy RB
5 9 Carlos Hyde RB
5 10 Kevin White WR
5 11 Greg Olsen TE
5 12 Latavius Murray RB
Round 6:
6 1 Andrew Luck QB
6 2 Russell Wilson QB
6 3 Travis Kelce TE
6 4 Tyler Lockett WR
6 5 Drew Brees QB
6 6 Giovani Bernard RB
6 7 Marvin Jones WR
6 8 Blake Bortles QB
6 9 Matt Jones RB
6 10 Jeremy Langford RB
6 11 Jeremy Hill RB
6 12 Tom Brady QB
Thoughts?
I wonder if we're overreacting to how last year's RBs performed and was that just an outlier? IOW, "One Year Does Not a Trend Maketh"?
- From 2012-14, the median ADPs of RBs who finished with 200+ points were 26, 34 and 22. Last year was 57.
- From 2012-14, the number of RBs who scored 250+ points were eight, six and seven. Last year was two.
). Among the top-15 in last year's ADP, we saw at least half affected by injuries, in addition to the usual handful of busts among this group.So if the NFL is so pass-happy, after landing a strong WR1 and WR2, can WR3/flex production still be found in the mid-rounds or even later? This approach would delay getting a WR3 and flex WR til after the first 40 or so are already gone; but is that really so bad? The presumption, I assume, of those who draft 4 or 5 WRs to start is that they hope to get great WR production from all three of their WR spots, as well as flexing a WR. But if so many drafters are taking the same approach, can they really ALL hit on most of their WRs? And are WR3 and flex WRs really that easy to predict?
Let's take a look at last year's top 48 WRs in NFFC points, as that represents [the unlikely event of] all twelve teams in a league having optimized their WR drafting (3 WRs + flex, times 12). IOW, if none of us whiffed on any WR picks.
- Among WR1/2 territory (top 24), there's a pretty strong correlation between ADP and actual finish: only eight WRs (33%) who finished in this range were drafted later than WR24.
- However, at WR3/flex range (25-48), a whopping 15 of them (62%) were drafted later than WR48!
In conclusion, are all/most RBs outside the top 4 really semi-useless? And if we don't land 4 or 5 WRs in the first 7-8 rounds, are our teams doomed? Or does last year's greater than usual number of RB injuries coupled with how difficult it is to predict WR3/flex production, as well as the available draft values at other positions due to the popularity of the Zero RB approach make a return to "old school" style drafting relevant again? Hmmm...
