Week 11 Thoughts & Observations

[Tom Kessenich]

Here are some random thoughts and observations as I congratulate the one person in the entire galaxy who started Kevin Smith in a fantasy league this week:

Brandon Marshall, Stevie Johnson, Denarius Moore and Vincent Brown combined for five receptions on Sunday. FIVE freaking receptions. That's the same number somebody named Kyle Williams had. Oh, Riley Cooper also caught five passes and both Cooper and Williams scored. We all saw that coming, right?

Given how this season has gone so far, I think I'm going to start using the Diane Chambers method for picking starting wide receivers. I'll go with favorite colors or whether one team's mascot could beat up another. For example, Nate Burleson over Damian Williams was clearly the way to go because a Lion can eat a Titan. And in retrospect, you definitely should have started Riley Cooper over Vincent Brown because Cooper has better hair.

Yeah, I can see it now - Championship.

Reason No. 3,432,115 why this game can be so frustrating - if you had started Rex Grossman, Kevin Smith, Chris Ogbonnaya, Riley Cooper, Kyle Williams, Johnny Knox, Marcedes Lewis and the Carolina defense you would have defeated a team that started Philip Rivers, Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Stevie Johnson, Fred Davis and the Baltimore defense.

Handily.

My colleague John Hansen likes to talk about how you shouldn't try to be a hero when you're making your lineup decisions. While I agree with that to a point (for example, I'm not benching Drew Brees for Christian Ponder because Ponder has a better matchup), given how incredibly impossible this season has been to predict I'm thinking maybe you should adopt a go-for-broke mentality. Given how unreliable so many great players have been and how many unexpected players have turned in monster fantasy weeks, why not roll the dice and take your best shot? I did it with Vince Young last night in my top league even though I didn't trust Young at all. Young wasn't sensational but he turned in a decent fantasy game so the move was worth it for me.

Speaking of Young, color me unimpressed with his audition for the rest of the league last night. The final numbers weren't terrible and yes the Eagles won but he refused to use his mobility (his primary asset) and he had no zip behind any of his throws. He floated nearly every one of his passes. I suppose he showed he could be a good backup for Tim Tebow, but I didn't see someone I'd want to be my starting QB.

Dear DeSean Jackson - that's not how you should behave if you're trying to convince someone you deserve the big bucks. Here's a hint - stop being a tool. You're welcome.

I was pretty sure I had no idea what was a touchdown anymore after the Calvin Johnson play last season. After the Jermaine Gresham play on Sunday I'm definitely convinced I don't know what a touchdown is.

Before the season, I was dubious of all the love Jordy Nelson was receiving. It's not that I didn't like him; I simply thought he'd get lost in all the weapons the Packers have and wouldn't be a consistent WR3 as he was being projected. Boy, was I wrong. Then again, so was everyone who had him projected as a WR3. He's a WR1 and could be Top 10 the rest of the season. Safe to say Aaron Rodgers loves throwing to him.

The guy who's getting lost in the shuffle in the Packers' passing game is Jermichael Finley and I think it's directly related to Nelson's emergence. Nelson's getting many of the looks many of us thought would go to Finley, especially in the Red Zone. You have to keep starting him unless you have a stud TE because he's bound to blow up at any time but it's pretty rough going many weeks for a guy projected to be a Top 3 TE this season.

That was the kind of game I thought we'd see more of from Donald Driver this season. A move-the-chains possession WR who could be a viable WR3 in PPR leagues. Not sure we'll see it again anytime soon but for one game, he delivered.

I'm assuming everyone started B.J. Raji at running back this week, right?

It took the Buccaneers a shocking 11 weeks to figure out that throwing bubble screens and quick outs to Mike Williams might be a good idea. Amazing.

There's the Roddy White everyone knows and loves.

I keep waiting for Sam Bradford to put up a game that matches his talent level. At this point, I'm thinking it isn't going to happen until next season.

Chris Ogbonnaya now has one fewer 100-yard rushing game this season than Chris Johnson. Yup, it's been that kind of season.

Michael Vick. Matt Schaub. Matt Cassel, Jay Cutler. Matt Hasselbeck. Kevin Kolb before them. I don't remember the last time I saw so many quarterbacks get hurt.

It's not just quarterbacks going down either as Adrian Peterson owners can attest. At this point, this season has become as much of a war of attrition as anything else in fantasy.

With Cutler out, the Lions' path to the playoffs just got a whole lot easier because Chicago's toast. No way Caleb Hanie leads them to the playoffs. It also opens the door for Oakland to take control of the AFC West next week. They were staring a potential loss to the Bears in the face. Now it shapes up to be a victory and a chance to pull away from the competition - especially if San Diego remembers how to win again and beats the hard-charging Denver Tebows.

Late in the Chargers' loss to Chicago, Phil Simms said San Diego had a lot to be proud of. Ummm, excuse me Phil? They got humiliated defensively on national TV. Again. They gained zero yards offensively in the fourth quarter and Philip Rivers melted down. Again. Oh, did I mention they lost to a quarterback who only had nine functioning fingers? Yeah, I'd be pretty damn proud of all that.

Hey Norv Turner, brilliant decision to call a timeout and then use a challenge that costed you a second (and final) timeout with the game on the line. Make sure to put that on your resume when you're applying for a new job after this season.

On my weekly radio show last Friday I proclaimed my man love for Vincent Brown this week. He was rolling, getting a lot of targets and the matchup strongly indicated the Chargers would be throwing a lot. Everything was set up for him to remain a high-upside WR3. I would like to now announce we are getting a divorce. He had one more reception than I did on Sunday. My man love was wasted on him.

Anyone else think the Bills might be having second thoughts about that contract extension they gave Ryan Fitzgerald?

Am I the only one who's amazed that every quarterback on the Arizona roster has trust in Larry Fitzgerald to make plays in the end zone except the guy they're paying $65 million to get Fitzgerald the ball?

Hey John Skelton, it was fun being everyone's favorite quarterback in Arizona for a couple of weeks, wasn't it?

He only gained 33 yards yesterday but I thought Beanie Wells ran hard and looked healthier than he's been in quite awhile. It was just a brutal matchup because the 49ers give up nothing on the ground. But based on what I saw, I'm calling it right now - Beanie delivers RB1 production in Week 12 against the Rams.

Every team that plays on Thanksgiving won in Week 11. I'm not sure that means anything but it seems kind of interesting.

Anyone else notice how Jim Harbaugh opened up his offense a bit on Sunday to allow Alex Smith to make more plays in the passing game? Yes, the matchup was outstanding against the Cardinals but something tells me Harbaugh knows that if he plans to win big in the postseason he'll need Smith to make big plays. Other than missing a wide-open Michael Crabtree for what should have been an easy TD, Smith looked pretty good.

David Akers attempted six field goals in the first half on Sunday. He missed three of them and two of them were blocked. That's not very good, Dave.

Hey Phil Dawson, dinner's on you this week. You got bailed out in a big way.

I know people like to rip on Tim Tebow for not being a very good passer but have you watched Blaine Gabbert? Guy makes Tebow look like Aaron Rodgers.

Matthew Stafford began the day with two interceptions and a big deficit against the Panthers. He finished it with 335 yards passing, five touchdowns and a thrilling win. I'd say that's a pretty good recovery.

Oh, did I mention Stafford threw his TDs to five different players, none of whom are named Calvin Johnson? That's not what the rest of the league wants to see.

I was convinced Andy Dalton would struggle against the Ravens on Sunday without A.J. Green. Whoops.

I know the Ravens won but I think it's safe to say they kinda missed Ray Lewis. I'll be very interested to see if Jim Harbaugh tries to attack them through the air Thursday night.

Hold on, LaGarrette Blount just broke 30 more tackles on his touchdown run against the Packers.

Don't look now but the Seahawks are playing pretty good football.

Matt Leinart and Jake Locker could determine the outcome of the AFC South. Just like everyone predicted before the season began.

I've said this before but I can't for the life of me figure out why the Titans don't use Jared Cook more. It seems like every time they throw him the ball, he makes something happen. So why not throw him the ball more?

It's always nice when the Panthers remembered they gave DeAngelo Williams a huge contract and perhaps they should ... oh I don't know ... use him. Problem for fantasy owners is you never know when this rather novel idea is going to dawn on them.

Plenty of people seem to be surprised by what Reggie Bush is doing in Miami but they shouldn't be. He's been a Top 15 RB in PPR leagues before and he's always had a nose for the end zone. Bush's problem has been durability. But he's healthy now and he's scoring with regularity.

Pretty sure there's a Kim Kardashian joke in there somewhere.

And finally, does anyone else need 25 points from the Patriots' defense tonight or is it just me? Go Pats.

[ November 21, 2011, 04:13 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]

[Money]

Tom,

I guess I was one (I'm sure not the only) to start Kevin Smith. I guess it was my Detroit roots. My other choice was Felix Jones. I posted somewhere last week that I thought Smith would win this job outright this week. This is a first place team, those are the breaks you need to win sometimes. Coupled with Stafford the Lions game was one of my fantasy favorites of all time.

[Tom Kessenich]

Helluva call Joe. Drinks are definitely on you today.

[Fourslot40]

Doesn't it start and end with TEBOW??

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by Fourslot40:
Doesn't it start and end with TEBOW?? Always.

TEBOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[FatPerez]

I was with you on the K-Smuff call Money. Started him at the flex this week in the Classic. Picked him up off the waiver wire last week, with the feeling that Morris and No Pulse Williams wouldn't stand in his way for long. Reports I read were that he looked very explosive in his workouts for Detroit. Knows the system, can catch the ball outta the backfield, plenty of time off to heal/rest, marginal talent in front of him.....why not? I expected a high scoring game with Carolina, and for Smuff to work his way into a split with Morris by game's end. Maybe, somewhere around 8-35 rushing, and 5-40 receiving, and if he managed to hit paydirt, that would be gravy. Needless to say, I did not expect THAT to happen. But, as a suffering Jahvid Best owner, I'll more than take it. I love and loathe this game we play.......it's like sports crack.

[bald is beautiful]

Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
No way Caleb Hanie leads them to the playoffs. In your week 13 observations, you will be saying something like "Hanie is better than I expected". Feel free to save this post for usage in 2 weeks.

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by Bald is Beautiful:
quote:Originally posted by Tom Kessenich:
No way Caleb Hanie leads them to the playoffs. In your week 13 observations, you will be saying something like "Hanie is better than I expected". Feel free to save this post for usage in 2 weeks. [/QUOTE]Even if he's better than I expected I still don't think he's leading the Bears to the playoffs, Jack, which is what I said. Here's their remaining schedule:

Week 12: at Oakland
Week 13: vs. Kansas City
Week 14: at Tebows
Week 15: vs. Seattle
Week 16: at Green Bay
Week 17: at Minnesota

Of those remaining games, I think the Raiders and Packers are losses. I think it will be tough for them to win at Denver and Kansas City can be a difficult place to play as well. As I posted earlier, Seattle is playing better of late - especially defensively. The easiest remaining game I see is the last one against the Vikings and that's a road/division game and those are rarely easy.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them go 0-6 the rest of the way. I doubt that happens, especially if Cutler is able to return before the end of the season, but I think that's a tough schedule for a backup QB to handle.

[da bears]

I think the Bears will still make the playoffs by winning at least 3 out of their last six games, and maybe 4.

Oakland and Green Bay will be tough but they can definitely win the other four games against teams with crappy offenses. The Bears defense has been solid.

[ November 21, 2011, 03:35 PM: Message edited by: da bears ]

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by da bears:
I think the Bears will still make the playoffs by winning at least 3 out their last six games, and maybe 4.

Oakland and Green Bay will be tough but they can definitely win the other four games against teams with crappy offenses. I think they can beat the Chiefs too but it's rarely easy to win at Arrowhead so I wouldn't view it as a given. The Broncos and Seahawks loom as difficult matches, however, in my opinion. Both are playing well defensively (Denver's playing very well) and winning at Denver won't be easy. I think they're in big trouble without Cutler.

[ November 21, 2011, 03:36 PM: Message edited by: Tom Kessenich ]