There's enough "luck" involved that I'd be willing to bet $10,000.00 that I could put the best NFFC player in a league full of first year players with magazines and some NFL knowledge...and if the same 12-14 people played year after year...that NFFC stud would NOT win the league more than 5 times in 10 years.
Especially if the league had a small bench...that would limit his advantage to stockpile studs...and because he couldn't...the other teams would have them and would be starting them.
Even with a huge FF and NFL knowledge advantage...there's enough luck to make that bet a good one.
In the league I commish...I'd say there are 4 WCOFF/NFFC worthy players...2 play WCOFF...the other two are too cheap to. (But I'm gonna start pushing them to play high stakes.)
Of the remaining 8 (12 team league)...there are 2 super competitive players...2 NFL savvy players...and 4 that go buy a magazine, and trust their cheat sheets.
Of those I mentioned...this is how it's gone down so far...
2001...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2002...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2003...Super competitive player won.
2004...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2005...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2006...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2007...the top 4 "playoff spots" are occupied by 3 WCOFF/NFFC caliber players and chased by the super competitive.
NOBODY has won twice yet in 6 years! Two of the likely 4 playoff teams will be potential repeat champs...and two will be potential new champs.
~Lance
[ November 28, 2007, 11:40 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
Skill vs Luck?
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sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
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Skill vs Luck?
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
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ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
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TradeStar28
- Posts: 2169
- Joined: Wed Jun 02, 2004 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
This arguement could get very silly with dumb references to poker, home leagues, mag drafters, etc.
If you want to explore the true culprit of what may bring up or down the skill level of a player...then simply look at how the paid subscription websites and the magazines and the general consensus mold a cookie cutter ADP leading right up to the draft(s) and how people (myself included) use it as the reference point to our drafts and where players are selected.
How many teams drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round ?
If you want to explore the true culprit of what may bring up or down the skill level of a player...then simply look at how the paid subscription websites and the magazines and the general consensus mold a cookie cutter ADP leading right up to the draft(s) and how people (myself included) use it as the reference point to our drafts and where players are selected.
How many teams drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round ?
2012 - FI$HER - Flying High Again
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sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
Originally posted by JohnZ:
So 2001 is the last time you won?
Of all the folks here that toot their own horn...I'd rank you JohnZ as one of those that gets zero respect for your accomplishments. You may have a high profile, and be friendly with those in high places...but you have no respect from your peers.
You...my friend...are just another player.
~Lance
[ November 29, 2007, 01:17 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
So 2001 is the last time you won?
Of all the folks here that toot their own horn...I'd rank you JohnZ as one of those that gets zero respect for your accomplishments. You may have a high profile, and be friendly with those in high places...but you have no respect from your peers.
You...my friend...are just another player.
~Lance
[ November 29, 2007, 01:17 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
-
sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
I don't see anyone jumping to take the bet.
Bunch of blowhards.
~Lance
Bunch of blowhards.
~Lance
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
-
sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
Originally posted by FI$HER:
This arguement could get very silly with dumb references to poker, home leagues, mag drafters, etc.
If you want to explore the true culprit of what may bring up or down the skill level of a player...then simply look at how the paid subscription websites and the magazines and the general consensus mold a cookie cutter ADP leading right up to the draft(s) and how people (myself included) use it as the reference point to our drafts and where players are selected.
How many teams drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round ? I drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round of a 30 team league.
You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.
~Lance
This arguement could get very silly with dumb references to poker, home leagues, mag drafters, etc.
If you want to explore the true culprit of what may bring up or down the skill level of a player...then simply look at how the paid subscription websites and the magazines and the general consensus mold a cookie cutter ADP leading right up to the draft(s) and how people (myself included) use it as the reference point to our drafts and where players are selected.
How many teams drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round ? I drafted Randy Moss in the 2nd round of a 30 team league.
You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.
~Lance
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
-
sportsbettingman
- Posts: 1805
- Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
.
[ November 29, 2007, 01:16 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
[ November 29, 2007, 01:16 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."
~Long John Silver
~Long John Silver
-
ultimatefs
- Posts: 2393
- Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 6:00 pm
Skill vs Luck?
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:
So 2001 is the last time you won?
Of all the folks here that toot their own horn...I'd rank you JohnZ as one of those that gets zero respect for your accomplishments. You may have a high profile, and be friendly with those in high places...but you have no respect from your peers.
You...my friend...are just another player.
~Lance [/QUOTE]thanks lance.
Glad to be known as just another player.
Can we get another 'toot' from you on how drunk you are tonight? That's a major accomplishment you post quite often.
Hope I get lucky again this week
quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:
So 2001 is the last time you won?
Of all the folks here that toot their own horn...I'd rank you JohnZ as one of those that gets zero respect for your accomplishments. You may have a high profile, and be friendly with those in high places...but you have no respect from your peers.
You...my friend...are just another player.
~Lance [/QUOTE]thanks lance.
Glad to be known as just another player.
Can we get another 'toot' from you on how drunk you are tonight? That's a major accomplishment you post quite often.
Hope I get lucky again this week
Jules is a Dirt bag and makes my luck.
Skill vs Luck?
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
There's enough "luck" involved that I'd be willing to bet $10,000.00 that I could put the best NFFC player in a league full of first year players with magazines and some NFL knowledge...and if the same 12-14 people played year after year...that NFFC stud would NOT win the league more than 5 times in 10 years.
Especially if the league had a small bench...that would limit his advantage to stockpile studs...and because he couldn't...the other teams would have them and would be starting them.
Even with a huge FF and NFL knowledge advantage...there's enough luck to make that bet a good one.
In the league I commish...I'd say there are 4 WCOFF/NFFC worthy players...2 play WCOFF...the other two are too cheap to. (But I'm gonna start pushing them to play high stakes.)
Of the remaining 8 (12 team league)...there are 2 super competitive players...2 NFL savvy players...and 4 that go buy a magazine, and trust their cheat sheets.
Of those I mentioned...this is how it's gone down so far...
2001...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2002...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2003...Super competitive player won.
2004...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2005...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2006...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2007...the top 4 "playoff spots" are occupied by 3 WCOFF/NFFC caliber players and chased by the super competitive.
NOBODY has won twice yet in 6 years! Two of the likely 4 playoff teams will be potential repeat champs...and two will be potential new champs.
~Lance Just out of sheer curiousity Lance, how are your playoffs setup (are there rewards for dominating your regular season, etc.)?
i.e.. If it is setup like most home leagues where Team A could DOMINATE the regular season, even earn the "bye", and then have a crappy week 15 or run into a buzzsaw and lose, then I would agree with you.
If it was setup like the NFFC, where after 13 weeks a H2H and total points champ were rewarded for their success, and no "one week decides it all format", might be a different story.
That all being said, I don't have 10K to put up.... I'm just a lowly teacher!
There's enough "luck" involved that I'd be willing to bet $10,000.00 that I could put the best NFFC player in a league full of first year players with magazines and some NFL knowledge...and if the same 12-14 people played year after year...that NFFC stud would NOT win the league more than 5 times in 10 years.
Especially if the league had a small bench...that would limit his advantage to stockpile studs...and because he couldn't...the other teams would have them and would be starting them.
Even with a huge FF and NFL knowledge advantage...there's enough luck to make that bet a good one.
In the league I commish...I'd say there are 4 WCOFF/NFFC worthy players...2 play WCOFF...the other two are too cheap to. (But I'm gonna start pushing them to play high stakes.)
Of the remaining 8 (12 team league)...there are 2 super competitive players...2 NFL savvy players...and 4 that go buy a magazine, and trust their cheat sheets.
Of those I mentioned...this is how it's gone down so far...
2001...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2002...magazine cheatsheet player won.
2003...Super competitive player won.
2004...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2005...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2006...WCOFF/NFFC caliber player won.
2007...the top 4 "playoff spots" are occupied by 3 WCOFF/NFFC caliber players and chased by the super competitive.
NOBODY has won twice yet in 6 years! Two of the likely 4 playoff teams will be potential repeat champs...and two will be potential new champs.
~Lance Just out of sheer curiousity Lance, how are your playoffs setup (are there rewards for dominating your regular season, etc.)?
i.e.. If it is setup like most home leagues where Team A could DOMINATE the regular season, even earn the "bye", and then have a crappy week 15 or run into a buzzsaw and lose, then I would agree with you.
If it was setup like the NFFC, where after 13 weeks a H2H and total points champ were rewarded for their success, and no "one week decides it all format", might be a different story.
That all being said, I don't have 10K to put up.... I'm just a lowly teacher!