Skill vs Luck?

sportsbettingman
Posts: 1805
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm

Skill vs Luck?

Post by sportsbettingman » Sun Dec 02, 2007 12:59 pm

C'mon, Rob.

It had to surprise you when you won. The way you did.

It just had to.

If you tell me you expected it...I'll understand.

I'll laugh...but I'll understand.

Lots of things change after the fact.

~Lance

[ December 02, 2007, 08:20 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."

~Long John Silver

sportsbettingman
Posts: 1805
Joined: Tue Jun 28, 2005 6:00 pm

Skill vs Luck?

Post by sportsbettingman » Sun Dec 02, 2007 5:23 pm

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
[QUOTE]You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.

~Lance Lance, that's not nice to say about my profession. In fact, a certain editor of a "Quiet Bullshit Machine" magazine is 331 points ahead of you in the NFFC Auction League, yet you have a better record than me!! How does that happen?!! :D

Just having fun with ya and I hope your team loses this week!! But honestly, it's interesting to see several posts recently about magazine rankings and online ADPs and mock drafts throwing folks off on draft day. Magazine editors obviously use results from the previous seasons to do their rankings well before training camps open and camp battles take place, but later issues and online rankings are usually formed from looking at many mock and league drafts and forming conclusions. In the end, the rankings/ADPs are nothing more than a composite of results with some analysis mixed in, and Lance, I do believe they are done by smart folks who watch as much NFL action as the fantasy players themselves.

The key for astute fantasy players, however, is to take all of this information (and there are 30+ fantasy football magazines out there and countless ff web sites with rankings) in and separate the b.s. from your own knowledge. Smart players take this info in and then create their own rankings based on what they've seen and heard through the years. That's how some folks took Tom Brady 27th overall this year and how some folks took Randy Moss early in the third round.

So take it easy on us poor fantasy writers, Lance. We're just trying to do our job, make a living out of it and even beat some of you folks in these "industry leagues" we like to host. Here's hoping that sportsbettingman loses in that NFFC Magazine Auction League in Week 13!! :D

Oh, and GO PACK tonight!! :D
[/QUOTE]I'm taking BillyBoy OUT! :D

That league (My first EVER FFB auction league) is MINE! ;)

That is why I love the value of a WIN not being thrown out. I can score 60 in my losses...but just enough to win in my wins...to hell with total points being the tell all of FFB.

~Lance

~Lance
[/QUOTE]Well Lance, I will agree that wins has kept you in it, but when the playoff starts, those who scored points are usually the ones who win out (i.e the "smoke and mirrors show disappears! )

Plus two words......

REX GROSSMAN

Good luck this week, Ryan Grant got you off to a nice start, but I will be doing everything I can to take you down, as with a win for me, I have an outside shot of squeaking in the back door!
[/QUOTE]I'll venture to guess that my 149 score is another "smoke and mirrors" score.

~Lance
"The first man what makes a move can count amongst 'is treasure a ball from this pistol."

~Long John Silver

BillyWaz
Posts: 10913
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 6:00 pm

Skill vs Luck?

Post by BillyWaz » Mon Dec 03, 2007 3:07 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by BillyWaz:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
[QUOTE]You are correct about the "Quiet Bullshit Machine" that is the magazine and website writers than more often than not know less ans pay less attention to the NFL than you or I do.

~Lance Lance, that's not nice to say about my profession. In fact, a certain editor of a "Quiet Bullshit Machine" magazine is 331 points ahead of you in the NFFC Auction League, yet you have a better record than me!! How does that happen?!! :D

Just having fun with ya and I hope your team loses this week!! But honestly, it's interesting to see several posts recently about magazine rankings and online ADPs and mock drafts throwing folks off on draft day. Magazine editors obviously use results from the previous seasons to do their rankings well before training camps open and camp battles take place, but later issues and online rankings are usually formed from looking at many mock and league drafts and forming conclusions. In the end, the rankings/ADPs are nothing more than a composite of results with some analysis mixed in, and Lance, I do believe they are done by smart folks who watch as much NFL action as the fantasy players themselves.

The key for astute fantasy players, however, is to take all of this information (and there are 30+ fantasy football magazines out there and countless ff web sites with rankings) in and separate the b.s. from your own knowledge. Smart players take this info in and then create their own rankings based on what they've seen and heard through the years. That's how some folks took Tom Brady 27th overall this year and how some folks took Randy Moss early in the third round.

So take it easy on us poor fantasy writers, Lance. We're just trying to do our job, make a living out of it and even beat some of you folks in these "industry leagues" we like to host. Here's hoping that sportsbettingman loses in that NFFC Magazine Auction League in Week 13!! :D

Oh, and GO PACK tonight!! :D
[/QUOTE]I'm taking BillyBoy OUT! :D

That league (My first EVER FFB auction league) is MINE! ;)

That is why I love the value of a WIN not being thrown out. I can score 60 in my losses...but just enough to win in my wins...to hell with total points being the tell all of FFB.

~Lance

~Lance
[/QUOTE]Well Lance, I will agree that wins has kept you in it, but when the playoff starts, those who scored points are usually the ones who win out (i.e the "smoke and mirrors show disappears! )

Plus two words......

REX GROSSMAN

Good luck this week, Ryan Grant got you off to a nice start, but I will be doing everything I can to take you down, as with a win for me, I have an outside shot of squeaking in the back door!
[/QUOTE]I'll venture to guess that my 149 score is another "smoke and mirrors" score.

~Lance
[/QUOTE]Just having fun with you Lance! ;)

Coming to get you tonight.... 15 from Mason and McGahee seems like it should be possible! :D

Ted's Cracked Head
Posts: 2817
Joined: Sun Aug 28, 2005 6:00 pm

Skill vs Luck?

Post by Ted's Cracked Head » Mon Dec 03, 2007 3:28 am

Billy and Lance,

I think your game means more to me and how does this post fit into the thread?

If Billy wins, Lance will not have the best record, he will be tied with Greg and I giving the edge to Greg. My team would then be the highest scoring non-Greg team giving me the coveted bye in week 14.

If Lance wins he gets the bye.

No skill on my part this week other than scoring a bunch but I could benefit from Billys possible win.

Isn't that luck?

Note: I think you both could play each other again in week 14 if Billy wins this week as Billy is in based on total points and Lance by virtue of his record. (maybe)
My mama says she loves me but she could be jiving too! BB King

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