Be A CHAMPION in 2010 - BUCK THE TREND!

[Sandman62]

Originally posted by GK:
... then a WR1 (who many think won't be a WR1) in Round 3...Good luck w/ that.

In the 3 mag mock drafts I was in this year, here were the WRs that went in round 3:

- Boldin, Crabtree, Smith/NYG, Rice, Sims-Walker
- Colston, Rice, Smith/NYG, Ochocinco, Boldin, Sims-Walker
- Boldin, Smith/NYG, Crabtree, Sims-Walker, Ochocinco, Bowe

Colston and Boldin, IMO, will NOT make it out of round 2. As for the rest... once you get past the top 12 or 13 or so WRs (tier 1 and 2, depending on where you break your tiers)... that next group of WRs is historically a very risky group from which to draft. Last year, after the top 13, out of the next 18 WRs (by ADP), more than half of them failed to live up to expectations (by my definition, they ended the year w/ a ranking more than 10 spots off their preseason projected WR ranking). Players like Royal, Gonzalez, Edwards, Evans, Coles, Walter, Bryant, Moore, Cotchery, and Roy Williams all came from this tier.

You personally may have had some better luck (oh, I mean "keen Snake sense" ) drafting from this tier of WRs, but I'd bet if we're all honest, for every Sims-Walker or Austin we drafted last year, we also probably drafted a couple/few of the ones I listed above that didn't perform anywhere near their projections.

Personally, I think a coin toss for my WR1 in an NFFC league, where we start at least 3 WRs, is too risky for my blood. OTOH, tier 1 and 2 WRs tend to deliver on their expectations more often. AJohnson, Fitzgerald, RMoss, White, Smith (CAR), Wayne, Colston, Boldin, Jennings, Welker and Marshall all delivered about as expected (within 10 rankings of their preseason projections). The only WRs from these upper tiers that didn't were Calvin Johnson and Bowe.

I'd rather play the luck game in rounds 4-7 w/ RBs because (a) it's later in the draft and (b) there are so many gems uncovered in these RB tiers every year. Last year, RBs like Addai, Stewart, Grant, CTaylor, FJackson, Benson, Rice, TJones, Bradshaw, Maroney, Hightower, Mendenhall, Charles, McGahee and RWilliams were all found here. Everyone probably assumes the RBs they draft in the first few rounds will average 15+ PPG. But in reality, only 10 RBs averaged even more than 13 PPG last year and half of them weren't expected to be that good (which obviously means that half of those who were stunk it up).

Put it this way, if you don't hit on that round 3 WR pick playing at WR1 level (which the odds are severely stacked against you), are you willing to throw your season away for two early-round RBs - at least one of whom has a 50:50 chance of failing to meet their lofty ADPs??? And if you're picking near the END of round 1, there's a 50:50 chance that BOTH of your RBs will bust!

[ July 10, 2010, 04:38 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

[RoidRage]

I've seen so many articles about draft strategy regarding which positions and the order they'll be taken in, but I find it funny to lock yourself into that mode of thinking before you even know your draft slot...

[Sandman62]

If I'm drafting anywhere after 6, I'm planning on WR/WR/QB. In the top 6, I'm taking a RB most likely.

As "funny" as it may seem to you, we won two main events last year w/ this strategy; it works by avoiding land mines (high-risk tiers of RBs and WRs).

[BillyWaz]

Originally posted by Sandman62:
If I'm drafting anywhere after 6, I'm planning on WR/WR/QB. In the top 6, I'm taking a RB most likely.

As "funny" as it may seem to you, we won two main events last year w/ this strategy; it works by avoiding land mines (high-risk tiers of RBs and WRs). It doesn't seem funny to me, Mike. I made the championship round last year and started WR,QB,WR,WR,TE...and then took a RB in round 6.

While that worked last year, one thing I have learned in the last 6 years, Mike is that the same strategy doesn't all work, meaning you may have to shake things up a bit.

Not saying it won't work......just don't be surprised if it doesn't.

Since we can't access last year's stats yet, do you mind posting the first say 10 rounds of each of your drafts (Classic and Primetime) last year? Would be curious to see them.....thanks!

[Getpaddled]

Originally posted by Sandman62:
If I'm drafting anywhere after 6, I'm planning on WR/WR/QB. In the top 6, I'm taking a RB most likely.

As "funny" as it may seem to you, we won two main events last year w/ this strategy; it works by avoiding land mines (high-risk tiers of RBs and WRs). Im still new around here.... "WE"? You have two users per screen name? Just wondering.....

anyway, This year is the year of the Kicker

QB,WR,K,RB,WR


* I wish I new more Real names matched with their screen names.


-Greg Dietzler-

[Sandman62]

I hear ya Bill. And I'm not so stubborn to go down w/ the ship if the draft points us in a different direction. I just would prefer if I can get our first two WRs and QB sewn up early, as I believe there is a plethora of 10-12 PPG RBs available later.

As for our two main event drafts last year, without my laptop in front of me right now, I'll try to recite from memory. Later tonight or tomorrow, I'll confirm.

2009 Classic:
1. Wayne
2. Colston
3. Rodgers
4. LJohnson
5. Parker
6. Leon Washington
7. Bradshaw
8. Steve Smith (NYG)
9. Zach Miller (OAK)
10. Trent Edwards
Though you only asked for 10 rounds, I think we took Vernon Davis in 11, and he certainly helped. Also, though we started out 9-0, we lost the last 4 once our RBs started dropping like flies. We still scored the most points in this league. But if we hadn't had injuries/cuts/demotions to ALL 4 of our RBs, the road wouldn't have been so bumpy the last 4-6 weeks.

Primetime:
1. Moss
2. Boldin
3. PManning
4. Bush
5. Moreno
6. DClark
7. Wells
8. Harvin
9. Hightower
10. Crayton or McGahee?

I'm interested in your drafts too Bill, if you don't mind? Thanks.

Greg, I try to use "we" as much as possible because my 15YO son has been my partner at this since he was 9.

[ July 10, 2010, 05:41 PM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]

[RoidRage]

Originally posted by Sandman62:
If I'm drafting anywhere after 6, I'm planning on WR/WR/QB. In the top 6, I'm taking a RB most likely.

As "funny" as it may seem to you, we won two main events last year w/ this strategy; it works by avoiding land mines (high-risk tiers of RBs and WRs). I didn't say there was anything wrong with it. My point was that many players like to strategize how they will draft their team before A: They don't know their slot, and B: They never know how the draft is going to play out and what value may fall to them.

Locking in on a certain position just to stick to your strategy seems too rigid to me, but good for you if you've been successful so far.

[BillyWaz]

Originally posted by Sandman62:
I hear ya Bill. And I'm not so stubborn to go down w/ the ship if the draft points us in a different direction. I just would prefer if I can get our first two WRs and QB sewn up early, as I believe there is a plethora of 10-12 PPG RBs available later.

As for our two main event drafts last year, without my laptop in front of me right now, I'll try to recite from memory. Later tonight or tomorrow, I'll confirm.

2009 Classic:
1. Wayne
2. Colston
3. Rodgers
4. LJohnson
5. Parker
6. Leon Washington
7. Bradshaw
8. Steve Smith (NYG)
9. Zach Miller (OAK)
10. Trent Edwards
Though you only asked for 10 rounds, I think we took Vernon Davis in 11, and he certainly helped. Also, though we started out 9-0, we lost the last 4 once our RBs started dropping like flies. We still scored the most points in this league. But if we hadn't had injuries/cuts/demotions to ALL 4 of our RBs, the road wouldn't have been so bumpy the last 4-6 weeks.

Primetime:
1. Moss
2. Boldin
3. PManning
4. Bush
5. Moreno
6. DClark
7. Wells
8. Harvin
9. Hightower
10. Crayton or McGahee?

I'm interested in your drafts too Bill, if you don't mind? Thanks.

Greg, I try to use "we" as much as possible because my 15YO son has been my partner at this since he was 9. As for your Classic team, I would never think that team won your league, as you really whiffed on picks 4-6. HOWEVER, Steve Smith and Vernon Davis make up for all that, and then I can see how it was won (Rodgers was sensational last year!) My Classic team was similar with the "whiffing" as you will see in a minute.

Your Primetime team was pretty solid. But not "lights out". I had the guy (Darren Fecich) in my league who led the Primetime through 13 weeks, and his team was unreal. My Primetime team sucked, as I didn't draft enough "meat". I see Dallas Clark was a big help, and am surprised as you really didn't have great WR's in that one (besides Moss...Boldin seems to always get hurt).

Anyhow, here are my teams. My Classic finished 3rd, and my Primetime was 7th or 8th.

CLASSIC (from #6)

1- WR Randy Moss
2- QB Drew Brees
3- WR Eddie Royal
4- WR Hines Ward
5- TE Dallas Clark
6- RB Larry Johnson
7- RB Chester Taylor
8- WR Josh Morgan
9- RB Willis McGahee
10-TE Jeremy Shockey

Got Jamaal Charles, Caddy, and Philly's D later, but nothing else that helped. RB was a mess the majority of the year, and not having a 3rd WR or flex player hurt as well.

PRIMETIME (from #12)

1- RB Steven Jackson
2- RB LaDanian Tomlinson
3- QB Peyton Manning
4- WR Braylon Edwards
5- WR Hines Ward
6- WR Donald Driver
7- RB Leon Washington
8- TE Owen Daniels
9- WR Domenik Hixon
10-WR Justin Gage

LT and Edwards were awful, and once Daniels went down, I was finished. Not good.

[Sandman62]

I understand. But I think, regardless of what perceived value falls to us, year in and year out, tier 2 and 3 RBs and tier 3 WRs are coin tosses as to whether or not they'll deliver. For instance, last year, we might've taken Kevin Smith early in round 3 instead of Aaron Rodgers. One of them is a much bigger risk due to injury chances, stagnant run game, etc..

I try to avoid as many of these players as possible and prefer to load up on safer high-end players early. To each their own though.

[Sandman62]

Originally posted by BillyWaz:
As for your Classic team, I would never think that team won your league, as you really whiffed on picks 4-6. HOWEVER, Steve Smith and Vernon Davis make up for all that, and then I can see how it was won (Rodgers was sensational last year!) My Classic team was similar with the "whiffing" as you will see in a minute.
That's my point... a team like this can withstand whiffing on RBs when they were picked in rounds 4-7. (Though I wouldn't call Leon/Ahmad "whiffs", seeing injuries caused their lack of production). Though our first 2 [WR] picks weren't spectacular, they also didn't kill us. Rather, they gave us exactly what we paid for: Wayne was a 19 PPG beast and Colston averaged 15 PPG, which is about what we'd expect from a round 2 WR (seeing only 16 WRs averaged 15+). OTOH, had we taken 2 mediocre tier 2 RBs w/ those first 2 picks, they COULD'VE sunk this team to the point that not even the Smith/Davis later pickups would've helped.

Your Primetime team was pretty solid. But not "lights out". I had the guy (Darren Fecich) in my league who led the Primetime through 13 weeks, and his team was unreal. My Primetime team sucked, as I didn't draft enough "meat". I see Dallas Clark was a big help, and am surprised as you really didn't have great WR's in that one (besides Moss...Boldin seems to always get hurt).
I was told that this Primetime league had some of the heaviest hitters in the NFFC in it (Glen Schroter, FI$HER, John Reuss, Jeff Dawson and others). John edged us out by 4 points, but we won H2H and then beat John in the playoffs. Though this team didn't carry much name-brand value, the RBs were serviceable, many times starting both ARI RBs. Boldin still averaged 14 PPG (missing one game) and Harvin stepped up as our WR3; plus we got Garcon off waivers early on. So I agree that this team wasn't lights out, but it had enough players who could put up 15+ most weeks to keep us competitive. Plus Manning to Clark WAS a lights-out combo.

Anyhow, here are my teams. My Classic finished 3rd, and my Primetime was 7th or 8th.

CLASSIC (from #6)

1- WR Randy Moss
2- QB Drew Brees
3- WR Eddie Royal
4- WR Hines Ward
5- TE Dallas Clark
6- RB Larry Johnson
7- RB Chester Taylor
8- WR Josh Morgan
9- RB Willis McGahee
10-TE Jeremy Shockey

Got Jamaal Charles, Caddy, and Philly's D later, but nothing else that helped. RB was a mess the majority of the year, and not having a 3rd WR or flex player hurt as well.

But except for Royal, this team seems like it was largely carried by your early picks - your best 2 WRs (Moss and Ward) and your QB - which is exactly my point: those players are much more likely to reward you w/ when you had to draft them. Of course, your waiver wire work paid off too (BTW, we drafted PHI DST too, which also helped us.)

PRIMETIME (from #12)

1- RB Steven Jackson
2- RB LaDanian Tomlinson
3- QB Peyton Manning
4- WR Braylon Edwards
5- WR Hines Ward
6- WR Donald Driver
7- RB Leon Washington
8- TE Owen Daniels
9- WR Domenik Hixon
10-WR Justin Gage

LT and Edwards were awful, and once Daniels went down, I was finished. Not good.
Again, see my point? LT was a tier 2 RB and Edwards a tier 3 WR, both VERY dangerous picks, as those tiers often have the most failures. Good thing you hit on Ward and Driver though or it could've been much worse.

Thanks for sharing your efforts Bill. Now get me in that BillyWaz DC!!!

[ August 21, 2010, 10:49 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]