Don't let the facts get in the way of your opinions Glenn!
The reason we drafted both main event teams last year this way is because the data from 2008 also supported the same conclusions. Until the NFL relaxes some recent rules that favor WRs and until RBBC goes away - IOW, as long as it's still a passing league - I don't see this changing. I'm not making the mistake of paying for last year's stats on certain players (a common mistake). Rather, I've identified positional tiers that have the most busts and we want to avoid. Venture into these tiers at your own risk (and obviously some folks prefer the high risk/reward option).
As for your #2 above, please post ALL of the mid-late round WRs you've drafted in all main events as long as you've been in the NFFC. Then we can see just how accurate you've really been. I maintain that most people have selective memory w/ this sort of thing - they remember the occasional hits and ignore the misses.
For instance, yes, we drafted Steve Smith (NYG) in round 8 last year; but we also took Justin Gage, Bobby Engram and Ronald Curry too.
Interestingly, ESPN's Matthew Berry, in his Draft Day Manifesto, seems to agree (though I know he's just another man's opnion, yet he also backs it up w/ stats):
I sort of feel that way with running backs this year. You're paying too much for role and opportunity when there's a very good chance what you paid for could vanish into thin air.
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My basic take is that if you can't get at least one of the elite, non-committee running backs, you can wait on that position. You will have to mix and match, playing the matchup game during the season, but it's not a season-killer if you don't get a 20-touches-a-game back.
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More than half of those 15 (Ray Rice, Thomas Jones, Ricky Williams, Joseph Addai, Jonathan Stewart, Jamaal Charles, Rashard Mendenhall and Cedric Benson) were drafted in the fourth round or later, if at all, last season.
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By devaluing running backs, it allows you to use resources elsewhere to dominate at other positions. Like at quarterback. There's a steep drop-off this year among quarterbacks after the top seven (Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Brady, Schaub, Romo, Rivers) and I'll throw Favre in there if he comes back (which he will). Ideally, you get one of those eight.
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What about wide receivers? In this column last year I talked about needing elite wideouts in the first few rounds, and ideally two of them in the first three rounds. Well, other than Calvin Johnson (cough), the wideouts were a fairly consistent bunch.
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Check out the top 20 wideouts drafted and the top 20 scorers at the position: Thirteen guys make both lists, and No. 21 on the drafted list was DeSean Jackson, so I'm calling it 14. That's 67 percent.
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They are also scarcer. Last season, there were 11 wide receivers in the top 50 and only 23 in the top 100.
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There are only a handful of elite guys at this position. You need one or ideally two of them. And by waiting on running backs, you can do that.
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There are more running backs that get yardage in a more consistent manner than wideouts that can do the same. And many of those running backs will be available later than the top couple of rounds.
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And that's the crux of this year's Manifesto. We're devaluing running backs and we're grabbing a ton of them. Quantity, not quality, kids.
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Bottom line? Take two elite receivers early. By early, I mean two in the first four rounds. You need to get one of big eight quarterbacks, and hopefully you can land one of the big two (Brees or Rodgers).
[ July 11, 2010, 08:57 AM: Message edited by: Sandman62 ]
