What will it take to win this thing?

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:01 am

Okay, looking at the endgame... what will it take? Averaging about 165 pts. in the last 3 weeks? (Obviously team NEW will have a buffer that the rest will not have!).

Will someone break out a 180 average do you think? Team New is ahead of everyone by a considerable margin and his average is just over 158.

Thoughts?

Dave

dgamblnman · Post by **dgamblnman** » Fri Nov 19, 2004 4:04 am

Lots of blocking

lumpy463 · Post by **lumpy463** » Fri Nov 19, 2004 5:13 am

Unless I do the math wrong or do not understand the plan, Team New's margin is not that considerable. In the end, take all the people he has a 260 point lead or less on. Divide that by 13 weeks. Entering the free for all, he only has a 20 point advantage. That is not insurmountable.
Personally, I just want to stay within 130 points of the leader, and I feel I have a chance. Feel free to correct me if this is not the right thought process.

Derek "Lumpy" Anderson

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Fri Nov 19, 2004 6:09 am

Dyv
This thread could exceed 10 pages. I'll limit my comments to a couple of things.

1) I think the single biggest factor (other than unpredictable injuries) is the NFL schedule.
Team New has been the best team by far to this point. Cpep,Barber and Gates are major players for him. Consider Barbers schedule in weeks 14-16.
Balt. and Cinn on the road. Pitts. at home. Could be a couple of down weeks for Tiki, not to mention what effect Eli might have.

2)Some Blaylock owners might make a serious charge. Gekkos team, although absent from the top 30 most of the year just posted over 200 pts. last week. It's only a 3 week run in the playoffs so........

My guess is it will take around 170 per wk. avg. to win it all. No stats to back that up, purely a guess.

Good thread!

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Nov 19, 2004 10:19 am

I have no question a fluke injury and/or a QB that only plays one half and the matchups will be a huge key. My goal all year has been to get there and (hopefully) take advantage of the matchups in the final stretch to claim the cash.

I have to get there first and getting LT and Duce Staley healthy would be a great start. If the world were perfect, the Bus would throw a tire with all the work he's had recently and Staley will post some TD

Lumpy - you're right on the 20 pt. lead for Team New. A fine advantage I'd LOVE to have, but the truth is it's only an advantage and not a stranglehold!

Dave

chris schinker · Post by **chris schinker** » Sat Nov 20, 2004 8:45 am

Dyv,
I think it will be someone who has scored tremendous points despite thier superstar being somewhat quiet, (I don't know maybe a team with L.T.) and then the star going off! i.e. clinton portis last year in the other contest. Have you noticed any teams like that? Good luck the rest of the way.
chris

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Sat Nov 20, 2004 9:24 am

Originally posted by chris schinker:
Dyv,
I think it will be someone who has scored tremendous points despite thier superstar being somewhat quiet, (I don't know maybe a team with L.T.) and then the star going off! i.e. clinton portis last year in the other contest. Have you noticed any teams like that? Good luck the rest of the way.
chris Hmmm... if your prediction was accurate and some person like that won the thing, he'd probably take you out to steak dinner in Vegas for the good karma

Then again, for me to win I need the Bus to throw a tire and let Duce sound off as well.

Long live the Gonzo Factor and damn the Antonio Gates' owners who got the same factor far cheaper...

Dyv

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sat Nov 20, 2004 10:24 am

Enough with what does it take to win the $100,000.

Much more important, what will it take to win the consolation

Talk about the Gonzo/Gates factor, I have to start a TE at flex because I have Wiggins and Witten and I don't know who's going to go off each week. The last couple of weeks my TEs have been my highest scoring players, now how's that for sad.

With guys going on and off the "Out" list, it's going to be a very strange playoff season. Teams with Priest and no Blaylock might be knocked out and then see Priest return week 14. Conversely, the teams that Blaylock helped make the playoffs might be in trouble. Same but lesser effect with Staley/Bettis, Tom Jones/ATrain, and even Chris Brown/A. Smith.

It could be that some consolation teams have huge scores and some finals teams tank. Clearly it will be harder to win the consolation than the finals, just because of the numbers.

Route Collectors · Post by **Route Collectors** » Sat Nov 20, 2004 11:15 am

JP's comments are true but what about the breakout WR's as well. I had to mention that to make myself feel better.

Agreed on the consolation round being harder to win. Alot of high scoring 3rd and 4th place teams will see to that. I wonder how many McAllister/R.Williams etc.. owners will get a sudden surge as those players regain their health.

JP - are you out of contention for the big prize?

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Sat Nov 20, 2004 11:20 am

Originally posted by Route C:

JP - are you out of contention for the big prize? Not mathematically but I'm looking at the River with just 1 out left.

NY6, I'm 6-4 and about 100 points behind 1st place Billy Waz (8-2). Jones Falls Terrace is 2 games behind also with 3 to go but has most points by about 50 over Billy. Next week I play JFT. If JFT beats me in a high scoring affair, say 170 to 165. and JFT then goes on to catch BillyWaz (Pocket Aces) in week 13 when Billy has an unfortunate, terrible week then JFT wins it all, Billy is tied with Ico/Liquid (Kate and Halle) for 2nd h2h, and I squeak into 2nd place in total points with Billy 3rd.

[ November 21, 2004, 01:12 AM: Message edited by: JerseyPaul ]