Does Head 2 Head still have a place?

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:20 am

Renman, I don't think I've ever agreed with you more on anything. VP for the classic and 2+2 for the prime would be awesome.

[ November 29, 2011, 04:21 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 10:28 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Renman, I don't think I've ever agreed with you more on anything. VP for the classic and 2+2 for the prime would be awesome. You don't quit, do ya?

All this talk about improving our system sounds like something is completely broken. Honestly, the data proves otherwise. The best teams are being rewarded in the NFFC Primetime and owners are winning from almost every single draft spot. Nobody is having a distinct advantage on Draft Day and h2h isn't rewarding the worst teams. Again, let's get through Week 13 to analyze everything and I have no problem tweaking the system if needed, but adding a second h2h team because others do it?? It doesn't sell the point for me.

Anyway, I just posted the NFFC Primetime data. It sure looks like a lot of money hangs in the balance heading into Week 13 and it sure looks like the top teams are being rewarded. 25 of the 30 league leaders in h2h are either first, second or third in their leagues in total points. And 21 of 30 leagues still have h2h titles up for grabs. Would a playoff help or hurt these leagues? Would a h2h playoff reward the right teams when all is said and done?

Here are the quick facts followed by the league-by-league data:

NFFC Primetime After Week 12:
** 17 of 30 leagues have the h2h leader also being the total points leader (56.6%, up 2 from 15 teams last week).

** Of the leagues that have a h2h leader who isn't the total points leader, they are currently in total points this way: 2nd (5 teams), 3rd (3 teams), 5th (1 team), 6th (1 team), 7th (1 team), 9th (1 team) and 10th (1 team).

** Nine teams have locked up a Primetime league h2h title, holding at least a two game lead with one game left. Eight of the nine teams are first in total points and have a great shot at winning the $5,200 league prize, while the other h2h champion is second in their league in points. Pretty dominating performances by these h2h champions.

** 11 of 30 Primetime leagues (36.7%) have ties for first place in h2h competition. Five of those leagues have three teams tied for first place and six of them have two teams tied for first place.

** There are teams that are 7th, 9th and 10th in their league in points leading the h2h competition, but each of them could fall out of the money completely with a loss this week. That's why it's important to run h2h competition for 13 weeks. It does seem to level the playing field for the most part.

Here's the league-by-league data:

Aug. 31: 3 teams at 8-4, 2nd in points (1st in points is 7-5, 13.40 points ahead)
Chicago 1: 11-1, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Chicago 2: 3 teams tied at 9-3, 1st in points
Las Vegas 1: 2 teams tied at 10-2, 1st in points
Las Vegas 2: 11-1, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Las Vegas 3: 11-1, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Las Vegas 4: 10-2, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 10 am League 1: 10-2, 1st in points
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 10 am League 2: 10-2, 2nd in points (1st in points is 8-4, 4.80 points ahead)
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 10 am League 3: 3 teams tied at 8-4, 2nd in points (1st in points is 7-5, 75.0 points ahead)
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 10 am League 4: 10-2, 2nd in points (1st is 9-3, 50.65 points ahead)
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 4 pm League 1: 2 teams tied at 9-3, 1st in points
Las Vegas Sept. 10, 4 pm League 2: 11-1, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Las Vegas Sept. 9 2 pm League 1: 12-0, 1st in points (clinched h2h title)
Las Vegas Sept. 9 2 pm League 2: 9-3, 10th in points (1st is 7-5, 193.8 points ahead)
Las Vegas Sept. 9 6 pm: 3 teams at 9-3, 2nd in points (1st is 8-4, 11.35 points ahead)
New York 1: 10-2, 6th in points (1st is 9-3, 86.1 points ahead)
New York 2: 9-3, 5th in points (1st is 6-6, 37.65 points ahead)
New York 3: 9-3, 1st in points
New York 4: 9-3, 3rd in points (1st is 8-4, 200.20 points ahead)
Online 1: 10-2, 1st in points
Online 2: 11-1, 1st in points
Online Sept. 10, 1 pm League 1: 10-2, 1st in points
Online Sept. 10, 1 pm League 2: 2 teams tied at 10-2, 1st in points
Online Sept. 10, 7 pm League 1: 2 teams tied at 8-4, 1st in points
Online Sept. 10, 7 pm League 2: 2 teams tied at 8-4, 7th in points (1st is 6-6, 80.15 points ahead)
Online Sept. 9, 5 pm League 1: 10-2, 3rd in points (1st is 9-3, 18.95 points ahead)
Online Sept. 9, 5 pm League 2: 8-4, 9th in points (1st is 5-7, 127.85 points ahead)
Online Sept. 9, 9 pm: 2 teams tied at 9-3, 3rd in points (1st is 7-5, 94.45 points ahead)
Online Sept. 1: 3 teams tied at 9-3, 1st in points

Thoughts?

Henry Muto · Post by **Henry Muto** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:05 am

All play is the most fair way to decide who makes the playoffs and who does not. It makes consistency count while being unlucky does not hurt as much. The best teams will always get in. The big reason I like all play is for what happens at the end of the year when teams are out of it they don't care so they leave in bye players or injured players you see it all the time so if you are lucky and play these teams late in the year you get an advantage because they don't care and give you a free win. Also no team will "get lucky" and play some guy when he has several players on bye everyone gets that same chance or if some guy lucks in to playing the guy when Peterson is out everyone gets that fair shot. Also if you are 5-5 mid season you are done you can't make up enough ground if someone is already 8-2 but if you were say 55-55 you could still catch a guy who is say 65-45 because you could win 11 games in 1 week and he could lose 11 in 1 week. Also it actually is pretty fun when every week Monday night you will have usually 3-4 games in the balance and every single point will matter because it cost you 2-3 wins.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 11:42 am

Greg, the playoff system is heavily skewed toward total points. And then you say it looks like the best teams are getting in because those inline for playoff spots have the most points. That's a circular argument.

I understand that nearly everyone on this site has been brainwashed to think that most points = best team. So be it. But the best NFL team and the best college team in the country are not decided by who outscores their opponent by the most points over a season. Consistency matters, H2H wins matter. I know H2H has it weaknesses ... and so does just points, which is why I prefer a balanced playoff system.

But if you are so sold that total points is THE indicator of the best teams, what's holding you back? Just flip to a total points league (you're 90% there already), and if you're gonna do that please show standings on the league home page by points, not record.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:09 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Greg, the playoff system is heavily skewed toward total points. And then you say it looks like the best teams are getting in because those inline for playoff spots have the most points. That's a circular argument.

I understand that nearly everyone on this site has been brainwashed to think that most points = best team. So be it. But the best NFL team and the best college team in the country are not decided by who outscores their opponent by the most points over a season. Consistency matters, H2H wins matter. I know H2H has it weaknesses ... and so does just points, which is why I prefer a balanced playoff system.

But if you are so sold that total points is THE indicator of the best teams, what's holding you back? Just flip to a total points league (you're 90% there already), and if you're gonna do that please show standings on the league home page by points, not record. Brainwashed is a term I would expect from someone else, not you KJ.

H2H and Total Points is the best indicator of the best teams. In several NFFC leagues, h2h record is getting teams into the Championship Round on its own, not total points. So I'm not sure why you say 90% is total points. You can do the math and not come to that figure as easily as I can.

You're asking for MORE relevance to h2h. Okay, that can be done WITHOUT just 2+2. It's something YOU are familiar with. You're also familiar with an 11-week regular season, yet that isn't the best model either. There are many other NFFC owners who have contacted me with the same idea I have to make this better, yet you're the one fixated on an old method. Think outside the box, my man.

You're usually good at that.

Again, let's analyze the data after Week 13 for both contests and see what needs tweaking. This is obviously a discussion that has spurred the masses on multiple message boards, so let's get tweaking. Everyone wants the best mouse trap next year and I think we can create it. It's just not 2+2, that's all.

It can be something else.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:13 pm

Oh, and it's definitely not All Play. There I agree with you KJ.

I do like the Breakdown data which is available within every league under STANDINGS. Check it out to see how your league would change or stay the same with that data. Unfortunately, trying to promote a mass market game with that format would be VERY difficult to explain. Everyone understands h2h and it can work under the right circumstances.

Also, think of how far the NFFC has come since 2004. Then we gave the first place league prize to JUST the h2h champion. Total points was second place and total points was third place. Now we have a fair way of allowing h2h champion and total points champion to fight it out during Weeks 14-16 for the league title and the biggest part of the prize. Can we make the league prizes and third place prizes even more meaningful and over Weeks 14-16? Sure, if that's what the masses want. It's not difficult to figure out how that mouse trap could be built. Now, can this also be marketed to the masses? That's the key.

mattjb · Post by **mattjb** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:17 pm

the argument that head to head is like real sport is so weak. in real sport you have some control over how your opponent performs. not in fantasy.

renman · Post by **renman** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:19 pm

Greg,

I certainly do not think the NFFC is "broken." I believe just the opposite to be true. But you started a thread (I know this isn't the one) designed to discuss the merits of opening up opportunities for more teams to be in contention while still rewarding the best teams over the regular season and not watering down the championship playoffs.

I am just throwing out ideas and trying to fuel discussion along with others. Not saying the NFFC is broken. I PERSONALLY love it the way it is, but do recognize that to grow the event we may have to appeal to a broader audience.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:30 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
Oh, and it's definitely not All Play. There I agree with you KJ.

I do like the Breakdown data which is available within every league under STANDINGS. Check it out to see how your league would change or stay the same with that data. Unfortunately, trying to promote a mass market game with that format would be VERY difficult to explain. Everyone understands h2h and it can work under the right circumstances.

Also, think of how far the NFFC has come since 2004. Then we gave the first place league prize to JUST the h2h champion. Total points was second place and total points was third place. Now we have a fair way of allowing h2h champion and total points champion to fight it out during Weeks 14-16 for the league title and the biggest part of the prize. Can we make the league prizes and third place prizes even more meaningful and over Weeks 14-16? Sure, if that's what the masses want. It's not difficult to figure out how that mouse trap could be built. Now, can this also be marketed to the masses? That's the key. Greg, the breakdown data is exactly the same as all-play. That was the Fantasy Jungle model, a boring and failed model.

Yes, the NFFC has come a long away. No argument there, I come back every year.

You're hinting there may be a better way - well, this has been debated since 2004 and I'm still waiting to hear what the better way is. VP is good, an equal mix of pts/h2h is good, all play and points only suck. Tell me what the next option is and I'll be all over it like 3RR if there really is a better way.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Tue Nov 29, 2011 12:39 pm

Originally posted by mattjb:
the argument that head to head is like real sport is so weak. in real sport you have some control over how your opponent performs. not in fantasy. It's not a perfect argument, but just because you can't play defense doesn't make having a consistently good team, week in and week out, meaningless. It's been a big part of the game since FF began.