Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice....

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 12:31 pm

There are a number of people who emerged in the second half of the season last year who were great FA pickups and probably helped some teams win titles (see below for 2 good, 1 ok, and 1 not so great examples). The fact of the matter is that the Miami rushing offense is barely averagin 2 yards per carry, and as was stated above, there are three reasonable candidates for the starting job.

Given that people got him in some leagues for 100 or so points.....

PS Given your Bettis bid, I understand your reaction, but less than 2 yards per carry is hardly a reasonable job.

Last year, Rudi Johnson did not have his coming out party until Week 8 and Dom Davis did virtually nothing until Week 7. Muhsin Muhammad was a top 20 WR over the last 8 games of last year after doing nada in the first half. Daniel Graham was a top 5 TE over the last half of the season after nothing much in the first half.

[ October 01, 2004, 06:34 PM: Message edited by: I Cojones ]

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 12:36 pm

Originally posted by LB Big Richards:
JP,

Also, the fact that L. Henry is not guaranteed the starting position adds to the argument. With Minor and Morris coming back, all of the trade rumors, and the woeful O-Line, Henry may only be worth a one week start.

I understand your need to acquire a RB based on your current roster and standings. I just don't think Henry's the answer. Can I predict another FA worth a $700 bid? No, but I would like the opportunity to bid $200+ on three or four possible point producers for the rest of the season. If not, you can always block teams from acquiring depth

.

Hojin Hojin,

Your argument is perfect for the baseball season. I could be last after 6 weeks and still have time to be a contender.

Sitting 1-2, I can't lose this week and have any chance. I can't wait for a better solution. With a very bad bye situation in week 10, that gives me 3 losses. I think 4 losses is the outside for having a chance, 3 is a more likely winner.

So, as Dyv said, I'm going all-in this week. If I win this week, I'm still short-stacked and will need lots of luck to keep winning. For me, that luck is represented by this guy Henry not only scoring reasonably, but keeping the job. Longshot...yes.

The good thing I have going for me is that the Jet's D is not great against the run. They have given up 112 rushing yards per game and 3 TDs. If Henry can get 60 yards on 25 carries and 30 yards on 5 catches he can probably consider the day a success and get another start. Maybe the good Miami D gets a turnover near the Jet goalline and he gets to push 1 over. All this is better than starting a FB that will get me 5 or 6 points.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 12:43 pm

Understand completely, I don't think that bid was appropriate for me... thus I didn't bid that much on Henry.

The Bettis bid was (to me) an important piece of my Gekko Satellite league. It really matters zero if you agree with what I bid.

There are CLEARLY times when a larger bid is appropriate for one team and probably not appropriate for another. Of course there will be more players to bid on in future weeks (did anyone suggest there would NOT be?) - the question is WHEN you gamble or do you miss out on the game and finish the year with wasted money?

Do you agree or disagree that circumstances for different owners dictate different approaches?

Quoting Leonard's statistics from last week and ignoring they came in obvious rushing situations during a hurricane is ridiculous... so don't go there

Dyv

lichtman · Post by **lichtman** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 12:54 pm

Dyv -- I hope you're not buying into certain BB poster's characterizations of me!

<Dyv love fest> I agree with you 100% -- different strokes for different rosters. I bid on both Bettis and Henry with no success and did not intend to comment negatively on your Bettis bid. As I hope I've made clear in our off-board correspondence earlier this year, I could not possible have more respect for your fantasy ability. Unlike virtually all of the rest of us, your ability has been quantified and tracked by a non-partisan third party who happens to be the world leader in sports. </Dyv love fest>

And of course hurricane conditions change things, but even if you exclude that game, the team's yards per carry for the season is still around 2 flat. Even RIcky only managed to pick up 3.5 a carry, and that includes a much better ability to bust a 20-yarder than any of the current guys have. And finally, I will never give up my hope that before the season is over something will happen to prevent my drafting of Travis Minor in two leagues the boneheaded play of the year.

JerseyPaul · Post by **JerseyPaul** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:01 pm

Originally posted by LB Big Richards:

And I tend to be conservative with my FAAB. I like to wait for those rainy days. In Paul's case, I think he's been through a lengthy storm.

Hojin Sigh, It started raining at pick 3.11 (I had 3.12). My plan all along was to take Warrick Dunn at 3.12. His ADP, even with 14 teams, was the end of the 4th round. I would then have Harrison, Holt, Dunn and my weak link...Wheatley.

But, as luck would have it, Uncle Louis took Dunn right before me at 3.11. I was stunned and had 1 minute to recover. The RBs left were Wheatley, Garner, S. Jackson, M. Bennett, Duckett, Dayne and Moe Williams. I figured I could get 2 of those in rounds 4 and 5 so I took another high potential WR in round 3...Moulds. Averaging 16.4 a game, it was a good pick.

That left Wheatley and later Moe Williams.

The rain became a hurricane when Onterrio's suspension was delayed.

My thoughts were I could get a FA RB by week 5 and have 2 starters for at least 4 weeks and then sit Moe for my new guy. That gave me 1-2 (although if Branch doesn't go down during the game on week 2 I'm probably 2-1).

So, being 1-2 and having crap at RB, I spent the wad.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:03 pm

Originally posted by I Cojones:
Dyv -- I hope you're not buying into certain BB poster's characterizations of me!

<Dyv love fest> I agree with you 100% -- different strokes for different rosters. I bid on both Bettis and Henry with no success and did not intend to comment negatively on your Bettis bid. As I hope I've made clear in our off-board correspondence earlier this year, I could not possible have more respect for your fantasy ability. Unlike virtually all of the rest of us, your ability has been quantified and tracked by a non-partisan third party who happens to be the world leader in sports. </Dyv love fest>

And of course hurricane conditions change things, but even if you exclude that game, the team's yards per carry for the season is still around 2 flat. Even RIcky only managed to pick up 3.5 a carry, and that includes a much better ability to bust a 20-yarder than any of the current guys have. And finally, I will never give up my hope that before the season is over something will happen to prevent my drafting of Travis Minor in two leagues the boneheaded play of the year. I love that UBB code... but, man, I'd be happier if I never saw it again. That would make me puke, lol. I don't hold anyone's characterizations - I have my own opinions and they aren't typically as harsh as my board persona might portray

I'm thinking that no matter which week, no matter how long someone holds their money... there will be a $500 plus FA (or 2 or 3) for people to bid on. And yet, I don't think that any league will actually EVER run out of managers who have $500 left because there are 14 owners.

Mushin Muhammad, Domanick Davis and Rudi Johnson came available due to an injury or an opportunity... who's to say Leonard Henry won't have his bust out? We've seen Sammy Morris and Lamar Gordon and we know Miami isn't a great running team... and yet 70 yards and an occasional TD tagged with a couple receptions and another 20 yards is a very very valuable player.

I invested $57 in Shawn Bryson for my main event team, but I would have rather had Leonard Henry for the $357 I put in

Dyv

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:18 pm

Originally posted by I Cojones:
728 points for the latest in a long line of crappy Miami RBs? Good lord. Did Lamar Gordon teach us nothing? we agree on this. EVERYTHING points to him being a failure. Spending big bucks on Henry is like going all-in...while drawing dead.

LB Big Richards · Post by **LB Big Richards** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 1:23 pm

I feel for you JP. Your bad luck is exactly why I've never ventured into high stakes FFL, until this season (Greg and Tom had something to do with my decision). And yes, I have to agree that FLB and FFL are completely different beasts. Point well taken.

Dave, I know that it was raining heavily in that MIA game, but Staley did rush for 101 yards against a very good rush defense. Henry is no Staley, but...

Hojin

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:21 pm

Like I said, I chose not to invest heavily in Leonard Henry ...

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:48 pm

Dyv, I thought perhaps your keyboard got stuuuck on the 7 key for the Bettis bid.