Who's Coming To The 2005 NFFC?

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:19 pm

I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late. The real question is: What kind of year will the players have? You'll find certain years players act in a way that favor those who pick early (remember the Marshall Faulk years in the late 90s & early millenium?). During this time, people who had the first pick always made a killing. Then, other times it favors the middle-to-late slots, like the last several years when people made out like bandits w/ guys like Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss (not last year), Tiki Barber, Terrell Owens, etc, while other people with the top picks been burned by guys like Faulk and Holmes (both seem to get injured by playoff time every year now), Edge, Deuce McCallister (this past year), etc. -z-

Nag' · Post by **Nag'** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 3:56 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
you want me to be honest? if so, here goes: i will make the playoffs this year and be in a position to win the title. how's that? is that politically correct enough for everyone? Since the above statement can certainly be considered fact (I mean, come on, how can it NOT be), then the following is the ONLY three possible explanations why there may be a slight chance the above may not come true:

1. Bad drafts slot - due to inabilty of bidding on his draft slot, drawing a poor slot and missing out on much coveted players, Gekko's team was put at a disadvantge.
2. Limited Playoff Roster - after easily making the playoffs, the only possible reason why Gekko's team may be held back from competing for the overall title is the inability to carry additional players to cover his player's injuries. A rule which he wisely suggested should be added.
3. During NFL's opening week, a giant meteor strikes in Pennsylvania disabling all residents from electricity, internet and phone service. Gekko is unable to change his initial starting lineup or make free agent transactions for the entire year and even though he goes 10-3 on the strength of his draft alone, he misses the playoffs by .05 points.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:44 pm

Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
you want me to be honest? if so, here goes: i will make the playoffs this year and be in a position to win the title. how's that? is that politically correct enough for everyone? Since the above statement can certainly be considered fact (I mean, come on, how can it NOT be), then the following is the ONLY three possible explanations why there may be a slight chance the above may not come true:

1. Bad drafts slot - due to inabilty of bidding on his draft slot, drawing a poor slot and missing out on much coveted players, Gekko's team was put at a disadvantge.
2. Limited Playoff Roster - after easily making the playoffs, the only possible reason why Gekko's team may be held back from competing for the overall title is the inability to carry additional players to cover his player's injuries. A rule which he wisely suggested should be added.
3. During NFL's opening week, a giant meteor strikes in Pennsylvania disabling all residents from electricity, internet and phone service. Gekko is unable to change his initial starting lineup or make free agent transactions for the entire year and even though he goes 10-3 on the strength of his draft alone, he misses the playoffs by .05 points. [/QUOTE]PRICELESS!!!!

Just a suggestion, maybe we should move this to another thread, as I doubt Greg wants us "hijacking" this thread!

Diesel · Post by **Diesel** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:19 am

Sounds like a plan, B-Waz...Greg, you can delete these last few smack talking posts and get back to business...lol

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:52 am

Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late. Really? I haven't written a book (yet), so I'm sure you have lots of data supporting this. Let's take this past year. did owners who drafted in the top half of the draft finish about the same place as owners in the back half. thanks in advance

[ April 30, 2005, 08:53 AM: Message edited by: Gordon Gekko ]

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sat Apr 30, 2005 2:54 am

Originally posted by Nag':
Since the above statement can certainly be considered fact (I mean, come on, how can it NOT be), then the following is the ONLY three possible explanations why there may be a slight chance the above may not come true: the biggest risk to me (and most others) is injuires. i proved i can beat not having an extra roster spot or blind bidding.

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Sun May 01, 2005 4:31 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late. Really? I haven't written a book (yet), so I'm sure you have lots of data supporting this. Let's take this past year. did owners who drafted in the top half of the draft finish about the same place as owners in the back half. thanks in advance [/QUOTE]Here's the breakdown for teams that made playoffs in WCOFF last year (compliments of 8Rings):

Pos________#__________High_Pts______Low_Pts
1__________15_________1706__________1450
2__________7__________1675__________1497
3__________7__________1629__________1473
4__________4__________1672__________1543
5__________9__________1652__________1522
6__________8__________1706__________1494
7__________2__________1597__________1501
8__________6__________1625__________1539
9__________5__________1627__________1475
10_________5__________1602__________1488
11_________7__________1654__________1411
12_________3__________1581__________1514

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun May 01, 2005 8:14 am

Originally posted by Z-Men:
Here's the breakdown for teams that made playoffs in WCOFF last year (compliments of 8Rings):

Pos________#__________High_Pts______Low_Pts
1__________15_________1706__________1450
2__________7__________1675__________1497
3__________7__________1629__________1473
4__________4__________1672__________1543
5__________9__________1652__________1522
6__________8__________1706__________1494
7__________2__________1597__________1501
8__________6__________1625__________1539
9__________5__________1627__________1475
10_________5__________1602__________1488
11_________7__________1654__________1411
12_________3__________1581__________1514 so, using the #'s you provided, 50 of the 78 teams that made the WCOFF playoffs drafted in the first half of the draft (positions 1-6) and only 28 teams that made the WCOFF playoffs drafted in the second half of the draft (positions 7-12). Interesting indeed. looks like drafting 1-6 really paid off for a bunch of folks.
64% of the playoff teams drafted 1-6
36% of the playoff teams drafted 7-12

where is the data supporting your claim?
Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late.

BillyWaz · Post by **BillyWaz** » Sun May 01, 2005 9:53 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Z-Men:
Here's the breakdown for teams that made playoffs in WCOFF last year (compliments of 8Rings):

Pos________#__________High_Pts______Low_Pts
1__________15_________1706__________1450
2__________7__________1675__________1497
3__________7__________1629__________1473
4__________4__________1672__________1543
5__________9__________1652__________1522
6__________8__________1706__________1494
7__________2__________1597__________1501
8__________6__________1625__________1539
9__________5__________1627__________1475
10_________5__________1602__________1488
11_________7__________1654__________1411
12_________3__________1581__________1514 so, using the #'s you provided, 50 of the 78 teams that made the WCOFF playoffs drafted in the first half of the draft (positions 1-6) and only 28 teams that made the WCOFF playoffs drafted in the second half of the draft (positions 7-12). Interesting indeed. looks like drafting 1-6 really paid off for a bunch of folks.
64% of the playoff teams drafted 1-6
36% of the playoff teams drafted 7-12

where is the data supporting your claim?
Originally posted by Z-Men:
I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late. [/QUOTE]And in the NFFC, I believe the majority of owners (more than half) came from the back end.

BOTTOM LINE... It really doesn't matter where you draft from if your good!

Robert Zarzycki · Post by **Robert Zarzycki** » Sun May 01, 2005 12:49 pm

Gekko, read again what my claim is. Actually, let me put it in different words because I was not clear enough:

I've found that people have an equal chance to win whether they draft early or late. However, in a given year you'll find certain positions are better than others. Not because of the position itself, but because of how the players happend to play that season. For instance, remember the Marshall Faulk years in the late 90s? Those who drafted first made a killing. Then, in 2002/2003 when Faulk started to go downhill, the No. 1 pick was no longer the best slot. The point is: it's generally the NFL players who decide what draft slots are the best, not the fantasy managers.

If you observe long-term results, that's over many many years Gekko (not just one year as I have listed for last year's WCOFF), you'd find much more parity. I don't have those results off hand, but I've seen certain years favor the early positions and other years favor the middle or late positions. It all evens out. The problem is, we just don't know what this year is going to bring! So we must assume any slot has an equal chance of doing us good. You feeling me? -z-