Good points everyone. To comment on one of them....I don't think TB has to duplicate last years stats or even throw for 40 TD to make this the right choice.
You have to truely measure the other QB's and find the seperation between Brady and the QB you can get in rounds 2..3..4..5..6 etc.
What do you give up in a RB vs. who you can get in 2..3..4..5..6..etc.?
I agree that WR's don't really factor into this decision.
At the end of round 1 especially the turn it makes sense to take him but you could say the same for Manning...Romo...Brees...Big Ben...Palmer.....ahhhhh...stop the madness!
Right now it looks like the best spot to take a QB high is the 4th round. Strange.....that's where Terriffic Tom was drafted in 2007.
[ June 09, 2008, 01:00 PM: Message edited by: Route C ]
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
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Route Collectors
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Route Collectors
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by KOTRAX:
THERE IS A FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING BUT AS WE ALL KNOW, NO QB HAS POSTED BACK TO BACK 40+ TD SEASONS.
Is that true? Not Warner?
THERE IS A FIRST TIME FOR EVERYTHING BUT AS WE ALL KNOW, NO QB HAS POSTED BACK TO BACK 40+ TD SEASONS.
Is that true? Not Warner?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
NOPE NOT EVEN HIM.
IN 1999. HE THREW FOR 41
IN 2000. HE THREW FOR 21 (MISSED FIVE GAMES)
IN 2001. HE THREW FOR 36
IN 1999. HE THREW FOR 41
IN 2000. HE THREW FOR 21 (MISSED FIVE GAMES)
IN 2001. HE THREW FOR 36
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Good question Greg.
The odds of Brady repeating his season from last year are pretty slim, but he still will most likely be the top scoring qb this year. Does this justify him being a top 10 pick this year though?
The QB position in the NFFC/NBC is very important because scoring is 6 pts per TD pass instead of 4 pts per TD pass like many other leagues. The teams that have won $100,000 the first four years in the NFFC have gotten significant production from their QBs. So if you plan on winning the $100,000 this year with Jackson and Grossman good luck..
Normally I would never consider a QB in the top 10 or even in the first round, but this year Brady is definitely a legitimate option. With all of the RBBCs in the league there are very fews RBs left that will get 20-25 carries a game. Even those RBs that will get that many carries only a few of those are a sure thing in my mind.
In the couple of early drafts I have done there have been quality rb options left in the fourth round and later. However these options are not as much as a sure thing and come with more risk than some of the top tiered rbs. But there are options and if you hit on a couple of those guys and Brady has another monster season, you may be a few $$$$ richer.
Combine Brady with a stud wr or two and two rbs that produce rb1 type numbers and that's not a bad start to your team... But the key is being able to sort through the minefield of RBBC situations and pick those rbs that will outperform their ADP. Good luck!
So yeah you can win your league title by drafting Brady this year in the top 10, but you better hit on those later rb picks or get lucky picking up viable rbs from the waiver wire during the season.
Will I draft Brady in the top 10 of any leagues that I'm involved in this year... stay tuned.
[ June 09, 2008, 01:51 PM: Message edited by: da bears ]
The odds of Brady repeating his season from last year are pretty slim, but he still will most likely be the top scoring qb this year. Does this justify him being a top 10 pick this year though?
The QB position in the NFFC/NBC is very important because scoring is 6 pts per TD pass instead of 4 pts per TD pass like many other leagues. The teams that have won $100,000 the first four years in the NFFC have gotten significant production from their QBs. So if you plan on winning the $100,000 this year with Jackson and Grossman good luck..
Normally I would never consider a QB in the top 10 or even in the first round, but this year Brady is definitely a legitimate option. With all of the RBBCs in the league there are very fews RBs left that will get 20-25 carries a game. Even those RBs that will get that many carries only a few of those are a sure thing in my mind.
In the couple of early drafts I have done there have been quality rb options left in the fourth round and later. However these options are not as much as a sure thing and come with more risk than some of the top tiered rbs. But there are options and if you hit on a couple of those guys and Brady has another monster season, you may be a few $$$$ richer.
Combine Brady with a stud wr or two and two rbs that produce rb1 type numbers and that's not a bad start to your team... But the key is being able to sort through the minefield of RBBC situations and pick those rbs that will outperform their ADP. Good luck!
So yeah you can win your league title by drafting Brady this year in the top 10, but you better hit on those later rb picks or get lucky picking up viable rbs from the waiver wire during the season.
Will I draft Brady in the top 10 of any leagues that I'm involved in this year... stay tuned.
[ June 09, 2008, 01:51 PM: Message edited by: da bears ]
Bauler Shot Caller
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by KOTRAX:
SO MAY PROJECTIONS ARE:
MOSS 15
WELKER 11
GAFFNEY 7
WATSON 5
SO THAT'S 38 TDS. SO IT'S KIND OF A COIN FLIP IN MY OPINION. Ormond, even if I were projecting "only" 38 TD's, I wouldn't hesitate taking Brady in round 1. I don't believe Welker will catch 11 TD's, but I do believe Vrabel will probably get a couple, as will Faulk and their 2nd TE (Thoams). Also Brady will probably rush for a couple. And Chad Jackson may reappear.
But the real key, imo, for Brady to exceed 40 TD's again this year is if Moss stays healthy. If he does, I'd take the over; and definitely feel confident in selecting Brady in round 1.
SO MAY PROJECTIONS ARE:
MOSS 15
WELKER 11
GAFFNEY 7
WATSON 5
SO THAT'S 38 TDS. SO IT'S KIND OF A COIN FLIP IN MY OPINION. Ormond, even if I were projecting "only" 38 TD's, I wouldn't hesitate taking Brady in round 1. I don't believe Welker will catch 11 TD's, but I do believe Vrabel will probably get a couple, as will Faulk and their 2nd TE (Thoams). Also Brady will probably rush for a couple. And Chad Jackson may reappear.
But the real key, imo, for Brady to exceed 40 TD's again this year is if Moss stays healthy. If he does, I'd take the over; and definitely feel confident in selecting Brady in round 1.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
I GET WHAT YOU ARE SAYING RICH AND IT MAKES SENSE.
I GUESS IT ALSO DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU DRAFT IN ROUND 1 AS WELL.
LETS SAY YOU HAVE THE SIXTH PICK AND YOU NAB BRADY.
AT THAT POINT IF YOU TAKE A RB NEXT YOU ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A JAMAL LEWIS, RONNIE BROWN, OR EDGE AT BEST.
IF TEAMS BEHIND YOU GO RB, RB, I'LL USE RYAN GRANT, AND REGGIE BUSH FOR SAKE OF ARGUEMENT.
IF THEY GET A HOLD OF A ROMO IN THE THIRD IS THERE RB/QB STABILITY BETTER THAN YOURS?
I GUESS IT ALSO DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU DRAFT IN ROUND 1 AS WELL.
LETS SAY YOU HAVE THE SIXTH PICK AND YOU NAB BRADY.
AT THAT POINT IF YOU TAKE A RB NEXT YOU ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A JAMAL LEWIS, RONNIE BROWN, OR EDGE AT BEST.
IF TEAMS BEHIND YOU GO RB, RB, I'LL USE RYAN GRANT, AND REGGIE BUSH FOR SAKE OF ARGUEMENT.
IF THEY GET A HOLD OF A ROMO IN THE THIRD IS THERE RB/QB STABILITY BETTER THAN YOURS?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by KOTRAX:
I GET WHAT YOU ARE SAYING RICH AND IT MAKES SENSE.
I GUESS IT ALSO DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU DRAFT IN ROUND 1 AS WELL.
LETS SAY YOU HAVE THE SIXTH PICK AND YOU NAB BRADY.
AT THAT POINT IF YOU TAKE A RB NEXT YOU ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A JAMAL LEWIS, RONNIE BROWN, OR EDGE AT BEST.
IF TEAMS BEHIND YOU GO RB, RB, I'LL USE RYAN GRANT, AND REGGIE BUSH FOR SAKE OF ARGUEMENT.
IF THEY GET A HOLD OF A ROMO IN THE THIRD IS THERE RB/QB STABILITY BETTER THAN YOURS? This is a lot of speculation, but I wouldn't take any of those RB's in the 2nd round. If that was the best available, that probably means some very good WR's are left. So I'd be looking at one of them in the 2nd. I'd feel pretty confident I could get a RB in round 3 as good as the ones you listed; and probably in round 4 also. In fact in the mag draft I got James in round 4.
So would I rather start with A.) Brady, Fitzgerald and James or B.) Ryan, Bush and Romo. I'll take A. (This was to somewhat follow your example, but in A, I probably wouldn't take James in round 3)
I GET WHAT YOU ARE SAYING RICH AND IT MAKES SENSE.
I GUESS IT ALSO DEPENDS ON WHERE YOU DRAFT IN ROUND 1 AS WELL.
LETS SAY YOU HAVE THE SIXTH PICK AND YOU NAB BRADY.
AT THAT POINT IF YOU TAKE A RB NEXT YOU ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A JAMAL LEWIS, RONNIE BROWN, OR EDGE AT BEST.
IF TEAMS BEHIND YOU GO RB, RB, I'LL USE RYAN GRANT, AND REGGIE BUSH FOR SAKE OF ARGUEMENT.
IF THEY GET A HOLD OF A ROMO IN THE THIRD IS THERE RB/QB STABILITY BETTER THAN YOURS? This is a lot of speculation, but I wouldn't take any of those RB's in the 2nd round. If that was the best available, that probably means some very good WR's are left. So I'd be looking at one of them in the 2nd. I'd feel pretty confident I could get a RB in round 3 as good as the ones you listed; and probably in round 4 also. In fact in the mag draft I got James in round 4.
So would I rather start with A.) Brady, Fitzgerald and James or B.) Ryan, Bush and Romo. I'll take A. (This was to somewhat follow your example, but in A, I probably wouldn't take James in round 3)
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
WELL IF GO WITH THE EXAMPLE OF TAKING BRADY AT 6. I THINK REALISTICALLY THE RECEIVERS YOU WOULD BE LOOKING AT ARE:
COLSTON
HOLT
A. JOHNSON (POSSIBLY)
FITZGERALD DEFINTELY WOULD NOT BE THERE IF YOU DRAFTED HIM AT SIX.
NOW GRANTED THE FARTHER BRADY FALLS IN THE FIRST THE BETTER THE CHANCE OF GETTING THAT STUD WIDEOUT.
I THINK THE HIGHEST YOU CAN DRAFT BRADY IS 9 TO GET SOMETHING THAT CAN COMPLIMENT HIM.
TAKING HIM AT 6,7 OR 8 YOU ARE KIND OF IN NO MANS LAND.
COLSTON
HOLT
A. JOHNSON (POSSIBLY)
FITZGERALD DEFINTELY WOULD NOT BE THERE IF YOU DRAFTED HIM AT SIX.
NOW GRANTED THE FARTHER BRADY FALLS IN THE FIRST THE BETTER THE CHANCE OF GETTING THAT STUD WIDEOUT.
I THINK THE HIGHEST YOU CAN DRAFT BRADY IS 9 TO GET SOMETHING THAT CAN COMPLIMENT HIM.
TAKING HIM AT 6,7 OR 8 YOU ARE KIND OF IN NO MANS LAND.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
No problem, replace Fitzgerald with AJ or Colston and I'll still take A.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
YEAH THAT WOULD STILL BE A DECENT START.