Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
[/QUOTE]Nag, actually that 34% is statistically significant. Just from an average perspective you would expect that number to be about 14%. So, by being a Brady owner, last year, you increased your chances by about 2.5x. Again, having Brady last year didn't "guarantee" success, but Brady owners enjoyed much better results than statistically expected.
And I agree, if someone chooses Brady in round 1 this year, they shouldn't expect the same rate of success as Brady owners had last year; but IF he does approach last year's numbers I would expect those owners to "beat the average".
Obviously when forecasting there are a lot of IF and BUT'S attached. Hindsight is a lot easier.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
One other thing to consider that I just thought of... maybe this simply proves what many of us have suspected all along... and that is about 70% of the people in this thing don't have a clue.
"That's how you become great man, hang your balls out there"
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by TexasHeat:
One other thing to consider that I just thought of... maybe this simply proves what many of us have suspected all along... and that is about 70% of the people in this thing don't have a clue. Or they drafted Travis Henry, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson with their first rounder and took Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson etc. with their 2nd rounder and due to ineffectiveness or injury, Brady wasn't enough to save them.
I agree though, that if you had Brady and didn't make the playoffs, injuries or not, you obviously didn't do a good job drafting last season.
One other thing to consider that I just thought of... maybe this simply proves what many of us have suspected all along... and that is about 70% of the people in this thing don't have a clue. Or they drafted Travis Henry, Shaun Alexander, Willie Parker, Rudi Johnson with their first rounder and took Javon Walker, Roy Williams, Andre Johnson etc. with their 2nd rounder and due to ineffectiveness or injury, Brady wasn't enough to save them.
I agree though, that if you had Brady and didn't make the playoffs, injuries or not, you obviously didn't do a good job drafting last season.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by TexasHeat:
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult. [/QUOTE]Those are some alarming numbers Nag. Thanks for the post... To know that only 34% of the teams that had Brady last year (at a 4th round bargain no less) made the playoffs is amazing to me, and really puts this topic to bed in my mind. Can you win taking him in the first? Yes. Will I try it? Not likely. That's coming from an owner that had to rely on the waiver wire (Derek Anderson) to save his season in '07. There are many good cases made for both sides in this thread, that's what makes these type questions so much fun. [/QUOTE]Nag' went and gave the whole secret away, I of course was busy trying to hide it behind a subscription! LOL
3'
quote:Originally posted by Nag':
quote:Originally posted by 3intboyBFD:
I don't know exactly how many teams had Brady and won when they took him in the 4th round.
But for the group that did take him in the 4th and didn't win, how would they now win taking him in the 1st?
I think many here are missing this key point. I remember making this exact argument after owners were drafting Peyton in the first round after his record breaking year - extremely unsuccessfully, I might add.
Last year, 9 of the 26 teams which owned Brady made the NFFC playoffs. 8 first place and 1 second. That's 34%. This is after drafting him in the neighborhood of the 4th round. That means that 66% of the teams who drafted a 50-touchdown QB in the 4th round DID NOT MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. Think about that.
Now, let look forward to this year. Assume for a second that Brady will have the same stats as in 2007 - which is a pretty BIG assumption - I think most would agree. Now, if LAST year, 66% of the teams that drafted Brady in the 4th didn't make the playoffs, isn't only logical to assume that this rate or losing will only increase significantly for teams now drafting him in the first round, would you say? I think it's safe to say that this rate would be up around 80% range.
And now lets go a step further and be more realistic about Brady's numbers for this year. If he did come back down to the 4000/32 range, now you have reduced your chances of winning even more after drafting him in the 1st.
To me, this is simple deductive reasoning. There is no reason to make assumptions on the rest of the draft - it likely has no bearing on the overall outcome. Simply look at winning statistics. Can you win by taking Brady in the 1st? If you want to be a stickler for semantics, then I guess the answer is yes. But realistically, it's very difficult. [/QUOTE]Those are some alarming numbers Nag. Thanks for the post... To know that only 34% of the teams that had Brady last year (at a 4th round bargain no less) made the playoffs is amazing to me, and really puts this topic to bed in my mind. Can you win taking him in the first? Yes. Will I try it? Not likely. That's coming from an owner that had to rely on the waiver wire (Derek Anderson) to save his season in '07. There are many good cases made for both sides in this thread, that's what makes these type questions so much fun. [/QUOTE]Nag' went and gave the whole secret away, I of course was busy trying to hide it behind a subscription! LOL
3'
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Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by RiFF:
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end. Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.
I'm amazed that some seem surprised, shocked and even disappointed to learn "only" 9 out of 26 Brady owners were successful last year in the NFFC. This is significantly more than statistically expected. That 9 should have been 3 or 4. Granted he had an exceptional year, but he's still only 1 of 18 players on each team. Many other players also had stats that were much better than expected. Moss, Welker, Marshall, Engram, Anderson, Grant, Graham, Edwards, etc, etc, etc.
I was actually surprised to find out Brady owners were as successful as they were. I suppose had I just guessed I would have said 6 or 7. So 9 was surprising to me from the other end. Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago.
2008- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
2009- Didn't finish last overall in the Classic or Primetime.
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Does anyone know how many teams that had L.T. made the playoffs? How about P. Manning?
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Brady's year was very comparable to the dominating season that LT had in 2006 (in the fact that there wasn't anyone close in points at their respective positions).
In 2006, I believe there were 23 leagues in the NFFC. If I recall correctly, there were 17 or 18 teams who had him that made the playoffs (74% or 78%).
Now teams took Brady in rounds 3 or 4, and could have had two or three SOLID picks in place before Brady (where LT owners obviously took him in the first three picks)and they somehow only accounted for 34% of the playoff teams. Using this logic, there should have been 78% PLUS teams who made the playoffs last season.
Why didn't more Brady owners make the playoffs?
Some theories.....
1) INJURIES- Injuries were obviously up from last year, and that could have been a big reason.
2) 3RR- The fact that teams couldn't "load up" from the front of the draft, might have been a reason also. However, MANY Brady owners had a 1-5 pick (meaning they paired him with LT, S-Jax, Larry Johnson, Addai, etc.) yet still didn't make the playoffs.
3) BAD DRAFT- Simply put, they chose players who simply didn't produce.
Whatever the case, I am shocked there weren't AT LEAST 60%+ Brady owners in the playoffs.
[ June 12, 2008, 11:05 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
In 2006, I believe there were 23 leagues in the NFFC. If I recall correctly, there were 17 or 18 teams who had him that made the playoffs (74% or 78%).
Now teams took Brady in rounds 3 or 4, and could have had two or three SOLID picks in place before Brady (where LT owners obviously took him in the first three picks)and they somehow only accounted for 34% of the playoff teams. Using this logic, there should have been 78% PLUS teams who made the playoffs last season.
Why didn't more Brady owners make the playoffs?
Some theories.....
1) INJURIES- Injuries were obviously up from last year, and that could have been a big reason.
2) 3RR- The fact that teams couldn't "load up" from the front of the draft, might have been a reason also. However, MANY Brady owners had a 1-5 pick (meaning they paired him with LT, S-Jax, Larry Johnson, Addai, etc.) yet still didn't make the playoffs.
3) BAD DRAFT- Simply put, they chose players who simply didn't produce.
Whatever the case, I am shocked there weren't AT LEAST 60%+ Brady owners in the playoffs.
[ June 12, 2008, 11:05 AM: Message edited by: BillyWaz ]
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Originally posted by ultimatefantasyfootballcheatsheets:Rich, I'm also surprised people are just now realizing this. I gave this stat in a thread 2 months ago. You are right, I'm the idiot here. I should have done the research myself in early Spring.
You are right, I'm the idiot here. I should have done the research myself in early Spring. "That's how you become great man, hang your balls out there"
Question Of The Week: Can You Win With Brady?
Billy,
I believe it's pretty simple. Brady's result in 2007, although exceptional wasn't as dominating as LT's performance in 2006.
And for that very reason, I wouldn't pass on a RB in the 1st round that I believed had an opportunity to have a dominating season. I believe there are 4 or 5 potential candidates, so I'd choose anyone of them over Brady. Once they were gone I'd then consider selecting Brady.
And my only point is Brady had an exceptional year and the success Brady owners had reflected that. A 34% success rate vs. and expected 14% rate. Trying to compare the success LT owners had in 2006 to the success Brady owners had in 2007 isn't necessarily comparable. Although put me down in the surprised category if your numbers are correct for LT. And of course that's why LT was a consensus overall #1 pick last year and will probably be the #1 pick in most drafts again this year.
The question we're debating with Brady is not whether he is worthy of the overall #1 pick but rather is it reasonable to consider picking him somewhere in the 1st round.
I believe it's pretty simple. Brady's result in 2007, although exceptional wasn't as dominating as LT's performance in 2006.
And for that very reason, I wouldn't pass on a RB in the 1st round that I believed had an opportunity to have a dominating season. I believe there are 4 or 5 potential candidates, so I'd choose anyone of them over Brady. Once they were gone I'd then consider selecting Brady.
And my only point is Brady had an exceptional year and the success Brady owners had reflected that. A 34% success rate vs. and expected 14% rate. Trying to compare the success LT owners had in 2006 to the success Brady owners had in 2007 isn't necessarily comparable. Although put me down in the surprised category if your numbers are correct for LT. And of course that's why LT was a consensus overall #1 pick last year and will probably be the #1 pick in most drafts again this year.
The question we're debating with Brady is not whether he is worthy of the overall #1 pick but rather is it reasonable to consider picking him somewhere in the 1st round.