H2H Exposed Part 1

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:50 am

Greg,

Top two teams in Total Points make the Championship round is too boring, to grow this Contest.

Add a third team from each League, odds on winning the overall prize goes up, more will sign up. That's a Good think, correct?

Add top 3 teams that had the most points scored against them, makes it fun for those teams that have a shot. it could be the team that finishes dead last, it also could be the team that finishes just outside the top 10%. Point is it's only 3 teams and it put more excitement into the Contest.

I have more, but they will cost You.

John

[ November 06, 2008, 02:52 PM: Message edited by: Raiders ]

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:52 am

I have always thought the majority of teams with the best records usually are also scoring the most. Now obviously there are times when a team catches some good or bad fortune and their total points do not match their record. That is part of sports. Sometimes you dominate the game and lose on the scoreboard.

I think this (for some) comes down to having total control over every single aspect of the fantasy sports experience. I believe we have a nice balance now between the importance of H2H and total points. I am always open to discussing new ideas so long no one is going to blindly dismiss or condemn things that have shown themselves to be popular.

For me, this all goes back to fueling interest in the NFFC and ultimately raising the prize funds. There needs to be a mainstream element to this event until it fills up and has a waiting list.

I personally like the format we have now.

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:53 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Of course there is a debate John, it is a 16-week season. yep, and the NFL is a 20-week season.

16 weeks regular, 4 weeks of playoffs.

nffc is 13 weeks regular, 3 weeks of playoffs.

EVERY team in NFFC gets to play in the playoffs, not just 37%.

The top 10% get to play for $100K

The bottom 90% play for $2500.

If you don't have the best h2h AND pts, you get to have a playoff.

So that covers all 16 weeks pretty fairly IMO.

All I see from you is an effort to add more teams to the league championship round that more times than not, don't deserve to be there.

I'm all for teams that deserve to be there. [/QUOTE]It sounds more to me like you are stuck on "that's the way it's always been" argument with no real supporting argument, rather than being open-minded to something that may be better. [/QUOTE]Your grabbing at straws again!!

Stuck on old ways? LOL. Who supported 3rr with facts on 7 years of prior use in hoops? I'm all for changes that make sense. Always have been.

Other than say "debate about 16 weeks," I've clearly ARGUED my side with numerous points without any rebuttal other than more straws.

OK... I just went through LV1-8.

The only third place teams that deserve to play in a league championship are those that have a h2h leader right now that is 3rd or lower in points in their league.

Those would be LV1, LV3, LV7.

(league, current 1st, pts rank of 1st place, 2nd place, 3rd place)

LV1 1129.55 3rd 1228.45 1156.45
LV2 1182.7 2nd 1224.55 1138.1
LV3 1105.2 6th 1278 1194.8
LV4 1230.5 2nd 1230.5 1163.75
LV5 1288.6 1st 1206.75 1152
LV6 1234.25 1st 1194.25 1180.95
LV7 1107.25 6th 1237.4 1191.6
LV8 1264.95 1241.95 1225.2

AVG 1192.875 1230.23125 1175.35625

So, I would recommend:

H2H winner gets in.
Top two points get in.

That could wind up being 2 or 3 teams and every league has a playoff.

renman · Post by **renman** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:56 am

Originally posted by Raiders:
Greg,

Top two teams in Total Points make the Championship round is too boring, to grow this Contest.

Add a third team from each League, odds on winning the overall prize goes up, more will sign up. That's a Good think, correct?

Add top 3 teams that had the most points scored against them, makes it fun for those teams that have a shot. it could be the team that finishes dead last, it also could be the team that finishes just outside the top 10%. Point is it's only 3 teams and it put more excitement into the Contest.

I have more, but they will cost You.

John Raiders,

Just to play devils advocate... if we were to reward teams for points against... what if you and I were tied for 3rd most total points scored against and were playing each other. Wouldn't I bench by best players to lower your "points against?"

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:58 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

The data you're looking at will have bias here as teams that start out lucky What about the bias here that only teams that start out well are LUCKY? :rolleyes:

What is this luck thing you keep bringing up?

Someone scoring a lot of points is always lucky in your book?

When you make your customers all that money in your funds, is it always luck? :rolleyes:

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 8:58 am

Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Thanks for chiming in Greg and for taking another look at the data, but I will point out there is one thing that you can't see in the data - how we lose competitors early in the process because they started with bad luck.

The data you're looking at will have bias here as teams that start out lucky will be competing 100% to improve their team as the season goes on, while some of those unlucky throw in the towel early ... which will make the ending data look more supportive of H2H being fair than otherwise.

I think the proof of this lies in the auction league results where teams do not throw in the towel early because they feel hopeless after say, a 1-3 start. Those leagues tend to be closer in both W/L record, and closer in total points.

Again, I am not advocating getting rid of H2H, to the contrary, this league would be dull without it - but I think we can keep h2h, make the contest more just, and keep more teams involved deeper into the season with a couple of changes. I think one thing you can't see in the data is the number of teams who keep fighting BECAUSE of h2h records. I think more teams are still in the race for a money finish because of h2h rather than in an all play or all points format. But I don't know that for sure, it's just my experience telling me that.

I'm going to dive into each league soon and look at the records. Let's see what the data says.

Oh, by the way, you missed a good time with me and RT in Arizona. We even found a great sports bar on Sunday to watch NFL games. It was an Eagles' hangout and it was WILD.

[ November 06, 2008, 03:00 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Raiders · Post by **Raiders** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:06 am

Originally posted by Renman:
quote:Originally posted by Raiders:
Greg,

Top two teams in Total Points make the Championship round is too boring, to grow this Contest.

Add a third team from each League, odds on winning the overall prize goes up, more will sign up. That's a Good think, correct?

Add top 3 teams that had the most points scored against them, makes it fun for those teams that have a shot. it could be the team that finishes dead last, it also could be the team that finishes just outside the top 10%. Point is it's only 3 teams and it put more excitement into the Contest.

I have more, but they will cost You.

John Raiders,

Just to play devils advocate... if we were to reward teams for points against... what if you and I were tied for 3rd most total points scored against and were playing each other. Wouldn't I bench by best players to lower your "points against?" [/QUOTE]That would be my luck, but that's one in a million. But Yes, I could see problems with that. Oh well.

John

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:07 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:

The data you're looking at will have bias here as teams that start out lucky What about the bias here that only teams that start out well are LUCKY? :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]I'm not suggesting they are lucky, I am suggesting that because they started well they will fight deeper into the season, making them look stronger on a relative basis than those who quit.

Originally posted by JohnZ:

Someone scoring a lot of points is always lucky in your book? Of course not, but if a guy is the league's overall top scorer but is in the bottom half of weekly scoring half the time, I would not consider him deserving of the league title.

Originally posted by JohnZ:

When you make your customers all that money in your funds, is it always luck? :rolleyes: Nope, but luck plays a role, particularly with managers who are highly concentrated and/or levered. See hedge fund industry for what happens when that luck goes the other way.

[ November 06, 2008, 03:13 PM: Message edited by: KJ Duke ]

ultimatefs · Post by **ultimatefs** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:10 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by KJ Duke:
Thanks for chiming in Greg and for taking another look at the data, but I will point out there is one thing that you can't see in the data - how we lose competitors early in the process because they started with bad luck.

The data you're looking at will have bias here as teams that start out lucky will be competing 100% to improve their team as the season goes on, while some of those unlucky throw in the towel early ... which will make the ending data look more supportive of H2H being fair than otherwise.

I think the proof of this lies in the auction league results where teams do not throw in the towel early because they feel hopeless after say, a 1-3 start. Those leagues tend to be closer in both W/L record, and closer in total points.

Again, I am not advocating getting rid of H2H, to the contrary, this league would be dull without it - but I think we can keep h2h, make the contest more just, and keep more teams involved deeper into the season with a couple of changes. I think one thing you can't see in the data is the number of teams who keep fighting BECAUSE of h2h records. I think more teams are still in the race for a money finish because of h2h rather than in an all play or all points format. But I don't know that for sure, it's just my experience telling me that. [/QUOTE]It's a bit of both, but more h2h IMO also.

I also don't buy into the statement that many teams give up when they are "1-3".

Heck all the 2-7 teams in my 3 leagues made moves yesterday, and one guy bought 3 guys for a total of $645.

This is why I point out these leagues are hard to win. An occasional guy quits, but not nearly to the degree of other games.

kjduke · Post by **kjduke** » Thu Nov 06, 2008 9:12 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
I think one thing you can't see in the data is the number of teams who keep fighting BECAUSE of h2h records. I think more teams are still in the race for a money finish because of h2h rather than in an all play or all points format. But I don't know that for sure, it's just my experience telling me that. I completely agree Greg and I wouldn't want a pts or all-play lge - but H2H cuts both ways as you lose the disillusioned. You've been playing FF for longer than me, so I'm sure you know this from personal experience.

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Oh, by the way, you missed a good time with me and RT in Arizona. We even found a great sports bar on Sunday to watch NFL games. It was an Eagles' hangout and it was WILD.

Would've loved to be there, I'll try to plan earlier next year.